MOScout Daily Update: Ashcroft for 7-1 Map - Why 6-1-1 Is Dump for GOP - Steward Hearts Gregory - More on Dem Pessimism - Dogan Kicks Off and more...

Steward Headlines Gregory Event

I’d previously reported that Speaker-designate Dean Plocher was headlining a fundraiser for Rep. David Gregory’s auditor campaign.  Now one of the GOP’s mega-donors, World Wide Technology’s David Steward, has added his name to the event.

See the updated invite here.
What It Means

This is a coup for Team Gregory as the primary will likely be won by the candidate who has the resources to get their message best delivered across the statewide.  Adding a billionaire to your side is a big deal.  We’ll see if a Steward check hits the Gregory PAC.

Ashcroft for 7-1 Map

News Tribune reports that Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft is in favor of a 7-1 map. 

·         "The biggest question there is whether Missouri will stay a 6-2 state, with six Republican districts and two Democrat districts, or whether they will go 7-1," Ashcroft said. He said the state's political leaning has been changing during the past couple decades, which could provide reason to change the current districts for more Republican representation…

·         "Just looking at my own position, I won statewide by 25 percentage points, which makes me say that it seems to me Missouri is a pretty Republican state," Ashcroft said. "So in that regard, if we were 7-1, I think that would probably do a better job of actually representing who the people of Missouri are in Washington, D.C."

The Math BTW

Ashcroft won with 60% of the vote.  A 5-3 (5 Republican congressmen and 3 Democratic congressmen) map would best fit that vote total.  It would give the Republicans 62% of the delegation, as opposed to a 7-1 map which gives them 88%.

Meanwhile in CD-1

Andrew Jones has filed paperwork to run for Congress, in the 1st District.  Jones is a Republican who has run for other offices before without success.  See his website here.

A Republican will have zero chance in that district, but there have been rumblings that the map-makers are considering ways that they could aid a Democratic primary challenger to incumbent Congresswoman Cori Bush.  One observer quietly advises: “Watch for how 1 is drawn…”

We’ll see…

More on Dems’ “Peak Pessimism”

I spoke to a few more Democrats yesterday about the state of affairs in Missouri – particularly the lack of an auditor candidate and the feeling that Dems simply can’t win statewide.  A few interesting nuggets from those conversations…

·         Former Governor Jay Nixon declining to run for US Senate is seen as an unmistakable sign that Dems’ prospects are dim.  Arguably the most successful Democratic Missouri politician in recent history, Nixon passing on a big race is a bearish sign.  He means, at best, he views winning a statewide race as a Democrat as difficult.

·         Another insisted that a Dem could win statewide, but it’s only in narrow situations – where the Republican candidate is deeply flawed (Saundra McDowell in 2018 or possibly Eric Greitens in 2022), and Dems have a strong candidate.

·         The second part of that equation can’t be overlooked: a generic, mainstream Democrat has little chance in the current environment.

·         Demographic trends aren’t making Missouri bluer the way they are in other states which have transitioned from Republican strongholds to swing states.  There isn’t the minority population growth to give Dems some longer-term optimism.  We are firmly part of the red middle America states: Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee.

Dogan Kickoff

Rep. Shamed Dogan launched his St. Louis County Executive campaign last night.  He received a warm speech from Speaker-designate Dean Plocher who “welcomed Shamed to the next rough-and-tumble year of his life… he is a man who will not shy away from good fights…”  Watch the speeches here.

·         One supporter: “Shamed gave a great speech and really seems to have found his footing in the race on the heels of the Republican success in VA and NJ. He’s laser focused on crime/public safety, education, and economic recovery in the wake of Covid. The diversity of the attendees and speakers is reflective of Shamed’s path. He has the ability to bridge the gap between Republicans and Democrats, north county and west county.”

Kendrick for Commish

Former Rep. Kip Kendrick announced for Boone County Presiding Commissioner. 

One Dem sees this becoming a big race: County offices rarely get statewide attention but Kendricks race will be a bigger deal than most. Boone is an important county where Dems need to maintain their county wide dominance. An effective Capitol operative, well-liked by Dems around the state and with an established local political base Kendrick will probably make it a 500k race (he starts with 100k in the bank).

eMailbag on 6-1-1 Map

A 6-1-1 map would be the dumbest thing Rs could do. You would incentivize Cleaver or his successor to turnout every base Democratic voter from the Paseo to Ward Parkway every election. Would make statewide races that much harder to win for the Republican candidate.

Lobbyists Registrations

Mandy Elizabeth Scott added Anheuser-Busch.

Michael Winter added Windstream Communications, Inc.              

$5K+ Contributions

Page PAC - $10,000 from McBride and Son Management LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from BesaMe Wellness LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from EIDo Organic LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Harrison Sweazea, Dwight Scharnhorst, Tom Shively, and Terry Young.