MOScout Daily Update: Schatz to Announce for US Senate - How He Plans to Win - Brattin Joins CD-4 Race - Gelner Running in Senate 20 and more...
Schatz Joins US Senate Race
Kansas City Star reported yesterday that Sen. Dave Schatz formed a committee to run for US Senate. Look for an official announcement later this morning.
His entry creates a six-way race. And he brings new – and somewhat intriguing – dynamic to the primary.
Schatz’ path…
· Money. I’m told we’ll see a “7-figure” personal contribution into the campaign. Team Schatz is eying the field and feels like no one has assembled a war-chest that too formidable. After accounting for debt and general election money, Eric Greitens’ last quarter showed him with almost no money in the bank. Attorney General Eric Schmitt has taken over $500K in general election money, reducing his available cash on-hand by about half. Only Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler had over $1M in primary cash on-hand. If Schatz drops $1M into his campaign, he’s competitive on resources despite coming to the race late.
· The “Chamber” lane. Schatz won’t be making any trips to Mar-a-Lago, and he won’t be running from his signature accomplishment in the legislature – an increase in the gas tax (something rejected by voters on multiple occasions.) The plan is to let Schatz run “as himself,” a very successful businessman, who’s a conservative, but who “gets things done.” It’s a zig while the rest of the Republican party is zagging, and would be certain doom in a one-on-one race with probably anyone else in the field. But with five others thumping their chests, there might just be 25% of the Republican primary electorate that finds the traditional Republican an appealing choice.
What It Means
I’d expect Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe (and other Republicans who see themselves less as Trump wannabees and more as good government types) will be watching this campaign very closely. Can you win a Republican primary running as a “conservative who gets things done?”
Brattin Pulls Trigger in CD-4 Bid
Sen. Rick Brattin officially declared his candidacy for Congress. He’d quietly formed a federal campaign committee a week ago.
From the announcement…
“I am running for Congress because I believe we need to elect conservatives who will stand up and put America First. We need to secure our border, hold China accountable for dishonest trade practices – including outright theft of American intellectual property – and for their cyber warfare against our nation, and stop liberals from using CRT and other ‘woke’ policies to brainwash our children into hating America. This is the greatest country in the world, and it is worth fighting like heck to save.”
It looks like James Harris is his consultant.
And
Missouri Independent quotes Brattin saying that he think’s Donald Trump won the election. It’s unclear if he thinks that Venezuelan communists rigged the voting machines, or if he thinks state election officials are supposed to obey a presidential request to “find votes.” Former Sen. Jeff Smith wrote recently that perpetuating The Big Lie is becoming a mainstay of Republican running in primaries afraid of alienating Trump devotees.
It is no longer the fringe position that it was in the immediate aftermath of January 6th, when everyone from Mitch McConnell to Kevin McCarthy publicly and unequivocally asserted that the election was legitimate and Trump had inspired the mob. Few Missouri Republican elected officials actually believe Trump’s lie. Indeed, many rolled their eyes when Eric Schmitt filed his post-election lawsuit alongside other state attorneys general claiming election fraud. And others mock Eric Greitens’ repeated 2021 trips to highlight Arizona Republicans’ “election audit”.
Gelner for Senate 20
Lost among the bigger announcements, but still significant, Brian Gelner announced he’s running for Senate 20 as a Republican. This is Eric Burlison seat (he’s running for Congress). Rep. Curtis Trent has already announced, so we’ve got another Republican primary. It looks like Palm Strategies is his consultant.
· See Gelner’s announcement video here. “Our current political situation… it’s broken. Career politicians keep kicking today’s problems down the road.”
· Bio from the announcement: Brian Gelner is a second-generation family businessman, who grew up working in his company’s warehouse. Today he serves as an owner and executive of Heart of America Beverage and the President of Crown Distributing. Brian’s businesses serve customers in more than 20 counties throughout southwest Missouri. Brian will bring over 25 years of private sector accounting and management experience to the State Senate… Brian is a graduate of Kickapoo High School and the University of Tulsa with a degree in accounting. He and his wife, Missy, live in southwest Springfield with their two young children.
And
Things are getting hot down in Southwest Missouri. In the large contributions, that’s a House candidate (Melanie Stinnett) dropping $50K into her campaign committee. She’s running for House 133, the Trent seat.
eMailbag on “Nixon’s Judges”
Whose side is your “Jeff city insider” on? Lying Kroenke and the rest of the arrogant NFL owners or St Louis? If we get one good thing out of Nixon’s tenure maybe it’s money for them slapping STL in the face without cause…
eMailbag on Franklin Sebate Race
· There's a reason Republicans in state elections typically make federal liberals their targets. Can they do anything about AOC as a republican State Senator? No. Does it work? Yes. Page is a villain beyond the border of STLCO.
· I think it's worth noting that we're 8.5 months out from the primary. Neither candidate in this race has been defined. Brown having 15% name ID despite never running for or holding office is NOT a bad thing. Griesheimer has a history of a family name on his side, there is no doubt about that. But if Brown works, raises the money and has the backing of some essential conservative groups, which I expect he will, then he's got a solid shot.
Lobbyists Registrations
Jessica Pabst and Jay Reichard added Missouri Motion Media Association.
Jay Reichard added NOMI Health.
Robert Hollis added 1611 University LLC, 1615, 1617 University LLC, and 1617 University LLC.
Schlemeier & Gamble deleted AM Trace LLC.
Tom Dempsey deleted American Concrete Paving Association.
Steven Tilley and Thomas Robbins deleted BJG Cattle Co, Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc., SBR Anesthesia Associates Inc, MO Holistic Healthcare, and Group XI Health LLC.
Tracy King deleted BJG Cattle Co, and Group XI Health LLC.
Steven Tilley deleted Kiel Center Partners.
$5K+ Contributions
Friends of Melanie Stinnett - $50,000 from Melanie Stinnett.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $7,500 from OWG III LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Justin Brown, Reps. Marlon Anderson, Michael Person, and Cheri Toalson Reisch, Penny Rector and Jeff Grisamore.