MOScout Daily Update: Ugly Redistricting Scenario - Protect the Promise MO - Vacant House Chairs - COVID Data and more...

A Less Optimistic Scenario

I’ve been operating under the assumption that the congressional redistricting would be a distraction and burn the first couple of weeks of session. Republicans would come in with a general consensus of the map and work through the process with a snag here or there but nothing major.  Not ideal, but not the end of the world either.

However, there’s another scenario where it gobbles the entire first month, and sows deep divisions.  It’s that a clutch of Republicans dig in for a 7-1 map.  One MOScouter thinks the odds of that prospect are increasing… “This 7-1 vs 6-2 debate is turning into a major fault line between conservatives and regulars in Senate. Will be a big fight with conservatives making it a litmus test for primary bonafides…”

If this comes to pass, the Senate “Regulars” not only have to contend with the Democrats, but also the Conservative Caucus.  That makes a filibuster much harder to break.

And if it becomes a “litmus test” issue for some folks, that only exasperates intra-party tensions and the whole “RINO” finger-pointing.

Keep the Promise MO PAC

In the large contributions (below), Keep the Promise MO PAC received $15,000 from American Federation of Children.  Keep the Promise (see its paperwork here) is the vehicle of education pro-choice supporters.  Its purpose is to defeat the proposed initiative petition which would prohibit the recently passed Educational Savings Account legislation. 

That IP (see it here) is currently involved in legal battle as its proponents argue that the secretary of state’s ballot language is unfair.

What It Means

Having fought hard for their legislative victory, educational reformers are on guard to see that they don’t lose their gains at the hands of an initiative petition.

Vacant Seats Draw Prospects

The two vacant House seats are drawing prospective candidates ahead of the 2022 elections.

·         In House 65 where Tom Hannegan passed away, Travis Wilson has formed a candidate committee.  Wilson is the City of Florissant’s director of Economic Development.  Before that he was “an economic development specialist with the City of St. Charles.” Wilson is running as a Republican.  See a bio here.

·         In House 34 where Rick Roeber was expelled, Rachl Aguirre has formed a candidate committee. Aguirre is a teacher who testified over the summer in education hearing about CRT. Missouri Independent quotes her: “My job is to give them the academics that they need. That is what I’m hired for, and that’s all I’m hired for. It is not my job to tell parents how to raise their children, whether I agree with them or not.”  Aguirre is running as a Republican.

And Vacant Chairs…

The best guess right now is that we’ll see Vice-Chair ascend and take the gavels of the House Committees without chairs.

·         That would put Rep. Bill Falkner chairing the House Local Government Committee where Hannegan was chair.

·         And – assuming the Becky Ruth appointment goes through – that puts Rep. Jeff Porter chairing the House Transportation Committee.

COVID Indicators Plateau

The decline in COVID hospitalizations and ICUs patients has stopped.  This epidemic has been proven stubborn and unpredictable.  I’m inclined to shrug my shoulders at the future: the decline may continue after a pause, we may witness yet another wave in infections, or this level of hospitalizations (just below the 1,000 level statewide) may represent the “new normal.”

MOScout Schedule

Short week due to Thanksgiving.  I’ll be do Updates on Tuesday and Wednesday morning – though they may be shorter than usual.  And then I’m off until Monday.  Next week things will resume in full: Weekly Poll, Who Won the Week, 1st Draft text etc, as we ramp up for session!

Help Wanted

WEPOWER seeks Director of Communications.  “We partner with Black and Latinx communities to build power to re-design education, economic, public safety, and health systems to be just and equitable for all… Reporting to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO), the Director of Communications and Storytelling (DCS) is an exempt full-time employee who needs to be based in or willing to relocate to St. Louis. The salary range is $65,000-$100,000. The DCS will be lead external communications, storytelling, and creative direction to advance a racial justice-oriented narrative…”   See the ad here.

Lobbyists Registrations

Jerry Hobbs and David Linton added 4Me4We, LLC.

David Linton added The Bio2 Solution.

Jason Zamkus added Board of Education for the School District of Springfield R-12.

David Winton and Jessica Petrie added Missouri Network of Child Advocacy Centers Inc AKA Missouri Kidsfirst.

Shawn Rhoads added Missouri Circuit Clerks Association.           

$5K+ Contributions

Keep the Promise MO PAC - $15,000 from American Federation of Children, Inc.

Mighty Missouri PAC (pro-Vescovo) - $10,000 from Supporters of Health Research & Treatments.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $7,500 from Vertical Enterprises LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Therese Sander.

Congratulations

To Erika Choinka and Matthew Choinka on the birth of their daughter Kennedy Paige Choinka.