MOScout Daily Update: Congressional Map Coming Soon - ATT Seeks New VP - Readers Poll Results and more...
Rumorville: Congressional Map Coming
Rumors are that the legislation containing the congressional map will be pre-filed any day now so that they’ll be ready when session begins next week. There’s every expectation that it’ be a 6-2 map (6 Republican districts and 2 Democratic districts).
What to look for…
· Do the lines of CD-4 or CD-7 give any Republican candidates pause about pursing those primaries, or entice any new candidates into the race?
· How much is Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s CD -2 strengthened from its current +4R lean?
· Did mapmakers subtly try to weaken Congresswoman’s Cori Bush’s grip on the CD-1 Democratic primary voters?
ATT Seeks Veep
ATT seeks Regional Vice President for our External and Legislative Affairs team in Missouri.
“Developing, implementing and maintaining policies and programs to ensure the organization's awareness of and impact on federal, state and local legislation that affect its activities. Plans, coordinates and implements strategies to promote the organization's point of view to federal, state and local elected officials and other key stakeholders. Directing the analysis of legislative bills to determine impact on AT&T and appropriate action. Establish and maintain contacts with key legislators/government officials, business leaders, and civic/community leaders…”
Rex $$$ to Protect ESAs
Rex Sinquefield’s latest check (see below) was to Keep the Promise MO PAC. That’s the committee organizes to defeat the anti-ESA initiative petition. See their paperwork here.
Sweeney on New City Wards
Dave Sweeney walks folks through the recent ward consolidation and redistricting in the City of St. Louis. See it here.
The proposed map has 14 wards with roughly 21,500 residents in each. According to President Reed, the map has seven minority preference wards and seven white preference wards. Furthermore, President Reed stated that the map successfully keeps most neighborhoods intact (85% of the city’s neighborhoods are located in just one ward).
Of note, the first election for the newly drawn wards will be held in 2023 for all wards and the aldermanic president… In addition, residents in April are expected to consider a ballot initiative, known as Proposition R, which would take redistricting power away from the Board and place it into the hands of an independent commission. Reform St. Louis, the group petitioning for Proposition R, said if the proposition passes, it wants the proposed new city redistricting process to kick in after the 2030 U.S. census rather than immediately.
MOScout Readers’ Poll 2021 Results
Q1 Biggest Legislative Lift 2021
ESAs… 26.47%
Gas tax increase… 44.71%
PDMP… 5.29%
Regulating faith-based residential youth facilities… 3.53%
Wayfair / State Earned Income Tax Credit… 17.06%
Q2 GOP Senate Candidate Best Role Model for Your Children
Eric Greitens… 1.16%
Vicky Hartzler... 24.42%
Billy Long… 4.07%
Mark McCloskey… 1.16%
Dave Schatz… 23.84%
Eric Schmitt… 11.63%
None of the above… 33.72%
Q3 Senator Most Likely to Win Their 2022 Bid for Higher Office
Rick Brattin (CD-4)… 20.35%
Eric Burlison (CD-7)… 58.14%
Bob Onder (St. Charles County Exec)… 12.79%
Dave Schatz (US Senate)… 8.72%
Q4 Most Likely to be Governor in 2024
Jay Ashcroft… 39.53%
Mike Kehoe… 59.30%
Q5 Quiet But Effective Lobbyist (Contract)
Rich AuBuchon… 39.88%
Brian Bernskoetter… 7.98%
Susan Henderson Moore… 9.82%
Sarah Topp… 7.98%
Trent Watson… 24.54%
Write-ins of note: Jeff Altman, Aaron Baker, Kate Casas, Alex Eaton, James Harris, Cara Hoover, Tracy King, Ryan Rowden, David Winton, and “Watson is not so quiet.”
Q6 Quiet But Effective Lobbyist (In-House)
Teresa Coyan… 12.58%
Josh Haynes… 25.79%
Larry Pleus… 22.01%
Scott Ramshaw… 6.29%
Tina Shannon… 25.16%
Write-ins of note: Mark Coulter, Shawn Furey, Sharon Jones, Ewell Lawson, Henrio Thelemaque, and Casey Wasser
Q7 Most Likely to Be Seen in the Middle of a Huddle
Bardgett & Associates… 38.92%
Burton-Liese… 4.79%
GibbonsWorkman… 23.35%
MATA… 27.54%
Write-ins of note: Scott Swain, Gamble& Schlemeier.
Q8 Most Like to be Seen Ushering a Client Around
Giddens Group… 28.57%
Hahn and O’Donnell… 15.48%
J Harris and Associates… 19.05%
Kyna Iman… 28.57%
Write-ins of note: Catalyst, Steven Tilley, and Noel Torpey.
Q9 Most Likely to be Seen Working Their List
Gamble Schlemeier… 36.36%
Husch Blackwell Strategies… 24.85%
Nexus Group… 26.06%
Scherr-Winter… 5.45%
Write-ins of note: Burton-Liese, Catalyst, Gibbons Workman, Giddons, Hemphill, McIntosh,
Strategic Capitol Consulting, and Winton.
Q10 Don’t Poke The Bear
Shawn Furey… 19.75%
Bill Gamble… 26.54%
Sam Licklider… 31.48%
Nikki Strong… 17.28%
Write-ins of note: Bunten, James Harris, Tom Robbins, and Jeff Roe.
Q11 Always In the Middle of Everything
Axiom Strategies… 12.65%
Chuck Hatfield… 34.94%
David Steelman… 4.22%
Steven Tilley… 46.99%
Write-ins of note: Catalyst, Gamble & Schlemeier.
Q12 Best Dressed Lobbyist
Winner: Brian Grace, with a very close second place finish by Tom Robbins.
Votes were received for: Jeff Aboussie, Jacque Bardgett, Rodney Boyd, Kate Casas, Colleen Coble, Shannon Cooper, Jon Dalton, Fred Dreiling, Alex Eaton, Boo Foley, Trent Ford, Ken Franklin, Bill Gamble, Nancy Giddens, Michael Grote , Mark Habbas, Ellie Glenn Harmon, James Harris, Brent Hemphill, Rodney Hubbard, David Jackson, Steve Jackson, Gregg Keller, Tom Krewson, Jeremy LaFaver, Sam Licklider, Abram Messer, Matt Michelson, Susan Henderson Moore, Dawn Nicklas, Sammy Panettiere, Jessica Pabst, Danny Pfeifer, Tom Robbins, Jorgen Schlemeier, Christian Starner, Nikki Strong, Hannah Beers Sutton, Dave Sweeney, Henrio Thelemaque, Trent Watson, Garrett Webb, Sam Wiles, David Winton, Olivia Wilson, Mike Winter, and Tricia Workman.
Q13 Best Hotel in Jefferson City
Courtyard – brand new, but no steak on the menu… 54.43%
Doubletree – warm cookies, but tight parking spaces… 34.81%
Holiday Inn – nice rooms, but not downtown… 7.59%
Pundit Contest
Here are the % saying yes to each of the statements in the “2022 Session Pundit Contest.”
41%... At least one day of session will be cancelled due to COVID.
23%... The much-rumored grand juries in Jefferson City will result in at least one indictment before the end of session.
18%... More than six legislators/former legislators will be appointed to positions by Governor Parson and confirmed by the Senate during session.
23%... Chief of staff Aaron Willard will leave the 2nd floor before the end of session.
41%... The legislature will pass a new income tax cut.
70%... The legislature will pass a Texas style anti-abortion bill.
35%... The legislature will explicitly not fund Medicaid expansion.
35%... The legislature will revise SAPA.
76%... Candidate filing dates will be modified.
53%... Mark McCloskey will file for US Senate.
94%... Jeff Roorda will file for state senate as a Republican.
59%... A state senator will file to run against Congresswoman Cori Bush.
Lobbyists Registrations
Rodney Gray, Susan Henderson Moore, and Cara Alexander added American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network; and deleted SSM Health Care.
Tracy King added Medea.
Sarah Elizabeth Felts deleted Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes.
$5K+ Contributions
Keep the Promise MO PAC - $25,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Supporters of Bob Oreskovic - $20,000 from Bob Oreskovic.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $12,500 from Enterprise Holdings Inc PAC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas City.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays (tomorrow) to Irl Scissors, Rep. Tony Lovasco, Phil Wright, and Jared Brown.
New Year’s Eve: Senator Josh Hawley, Sen. Mike Moon, Carol Kemna, Ashley Jost, Kate Meiners, and Chris Krehmeyer.
New Year’s Day: Bill Otto, Clint Tracy, and Pat Contreras.
Sunday: Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Brittany Robbins, and Lyle Rowland.
MOScout Schedule
Another short week for me. Taking a longgg weekend. Be back Monday. Session starts next Wednesday!