MOScout Daily Update: State of the Senate Race... Nixon?!? - Schmitt Announcement Coming - Handicapping Congressional Entries and more....

Nixon Talk!

In one of the more fascinating ripples from Senator Roy Blunt’s explosive announcement, Democrats are hankering for a comeback from former governor Jay Nixon.  A Nixon candidacy would put the Missouri Senate race 100% in play.

One MOScouter makes the case…

·         Nixon has been thinking about the suddenly red-hot Senate race, any public statements notwithstanding. It’s how Nixon is hardwired after 35 years running for office.

·         “When you have been in that level of leadership role, with all the power, there’s nothing else like it,” a former elected official during the Nixon years told me Wednesday. “And Nixon has tried twice for the Senate. It would be the ultimate validation to win on the third try. He’s one of the few names President Joe Biden likely knows amid recent statewide Missouri Democratic officeholders, so don’t be surprised if DC folks are inquiring.”

·         The last “conservative Democrat” to serve statewide, Nixon turned 65 last month. But Biden and Trump have re-set the age factor on the high end. 65 is the new 55.

·         A tougher part of the calculation is money, and not just fundraising, where Nixon was always successful. It’s about personal wealth-building. As a law firm partner, Nixon likely stands to reap a big payday if Dowd Bennett prevails in the ongoing lawsuit in St. Louis City Circuit Court against the St. Louis Rams over the team’s relocation to Los Angeles. News reports say a successful case could yield a $1 billion-plus verdict for the plaintiffs, of which 30% goes to Dowd Bennett and other plaintiff firms... Nixon’s share of a win in the Rams case as partner would presumably be in the millions. Does he walk away from the prospect of such a payday downrange?

Meanwhile on the GOP Side

Attorney General Eric Schmitt signaled that he’s poised to make his announcement.  One source says it could happen as early as today, but probably no later than Monday.  That will put pressure on all the other names in mix (Mike Kehoe, Scott Fitzpatrick, the various congressmen) to make their decision sooner rather than later. 

Here’s why Schmitt is the front-runner…

·         He has two statewide wins – and two state senate wins in the St. Louis County area crucial to statewide Republicans. 

·         He is the most prolific fundraiser of the field and his RAGA leadership position has allowed him to set up a national fundraising apparatus.

·         Schmitt defended President Trump’s agenda the past few years, including helping in Trump’s battle against the presidential election results.

·         He’s a regular on Fox Business News, and his political team has a nationwide reach to continue to expand his network

·         The AG’s office is the only statewide platform (besides governor) that can garner press coverage nearly every day. 

The State of the Congressmen

I’m bearish on the Missouri Congressional delegation jumping in because they’d have to risk their seats to take the plunge.  Of course, that’s happened in the past, so it clearly could happen again this cycle.

Jason Smith (30% chance he runs)

·         Smith’s strengths include $1.5 million federal war-chest.  “The Erics” will be starting their fundraising from scratch. 

·         Smith also boasts a very pro-Trump record in a very pro-Trump Republican electorate.

·         One big downside for Smith is that, as ranking member on House Budget, he’s in line to chair that powerful committee if the GOP retakes Congress. That’s a hell of a carrot to keep him in Congress.

Billy Long (10% chance he runs)

·         Long’s prospects rests on a wildcard Trump’s endorsement.  That’s an unpredictable factor to handicap, but a number of the folks in this race have some reason to believe they could nab the Donald’s nod.

·         The reason he doesn’t run… It’s not that he’s “in line” for any nice assignment like Smith (one GOP observer joked: “Not sure Billy’s in line for anything other than lunch”), but rather he just loves DC too much to risk it.

Blaine Luetkemeyer (40% chance he runs)

·         One Republican source sees this a real possibility: “He has $2.5 million in federal dollars and raises a ton more than anyone else in the delegation, but gives most of it to the NRCC or other members. He has gone from not interested to interested in the last 24 hours.”

·         But the mighty Jason Rosenbaum aptly captures the risk/reward: “Luetkemeyer has run statewide before in 2004 and competed in the legendary #MO9 contest in 2008. But he's in line to potentially chair the House Financial Services Committee if the Rs win back the House next year.”

Ann Wagner (15% chance she runs)

·         Wagner’s from the most moderate Republican district.  That puts her in the wait-and-see category.  Her path gets stronger as more men and more rabid Trumpsters enter the race. You have a Greitens, Schmitt, Smith, Long primary field, and she practically saunters into the Senate.

Gas Tax Compromise

The legislature moved several priorities another step farther yesterday. 

·         In the Senate, Sen. Dave Schatz’ gas tax legislation was perfected.  The tax would increase 12.5 cents (phased in) down from the original 15 cents proposed.

·         And the Senate perfected a version of Wayfair (internet sales tax) in Sen. Andrew Koenig’s SB 153.  The bill included several other provisions, including a reduction in the “franchise fee” that cable companies pay local municipalities.

·         The House perfected a few more education bills: Rep. Brad Pollitt’s open enrollment HB 543, and Rep. Brenda Shield’s HB 151 aimed at getting smaller districts to share superintendents.

·         The House also perfected a bill overhauling the initiative petition process (HB 333) and an election bill (HB 738).

New Committees

Northern Missouri Citizens For Reflective Government was formed.  It’s a PAC to support Traci Westfall.  She’s a former educator running for Maryville R-II Board of Education.

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard McIntosh, David McCracken, and John Gaskin added Polarity.

Lou Hamilton deleted Saint Louis Zoo Association.

Irl Scissors deleted Armstrong Teasdale LLP.

Charlie Miller deleted HIMOINSA Power Systems, Inc.

Casey Wasser deleted Missouri Hemp Producers Association.       

Drew Weber deleted Missouri-American Water Company, Estates at Kohl Farms, and Calvin Schneider Living Trust.

$5K+ Contributions

Midwest Region Laborers' Political League Education Fund - $5,901 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.

Southland Progress - $10,000 from Together KC.

Missourians for Higher Education - $10,000 from The Civic Council of Greater Kansas City.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Floor Leader Dean Plocher, and Jay Reichard.

MOScout Schedule

With Spring Break ahead, there will be no weekend editions, (and I’m taking Monday off too).  So after tomorrow’s update, I’ll see you Tuesday.