MOScout Daily Update: MO Senate Rundown - Kidd Files Committee and more...

MO Senate Update

Here’s my latest gauge of the race to replace Senator Roy Blunt…

Eric Schmitt

·         Farthest along of all the candidates.  He has a team, and he’s working it.

·         But unlike his other races (state senate and attorney general), this isn’t one can be nailed down before the campaign even begins.

Ann Wagner

·         Most folks think she won’t run.  But the case for her to be motivated is that she might be tired of constantly running for re-election, and figure it’s time to go big or go home.

·         She’s the most problematic candidate for Schmitt in that she’d eat into his SL County base, and she’s closest to his “lane,” the establishment Republican bloc.  One observer even thinks that if she entered, Schmitt would be wise to retreat and run instead for her Congressional seat.

Billy Long

Here’s why Long is thinking of jumping in…

·         He’s been underestimated before, and think the political class is doing it again. 

·         Trump knows him personally, he’d have a shot at the big endorsement.

·         In a splintered primary, Long’s southwest base could be enough.

Jason Smith

·         I spoke to two folks with strong southeast ties who said Smith is “strongly considering it” and “leaning towards running.

·         One factor: Smith’s young age and the Senate’s seniority rules offer him extra incentive to make the leap.

·         Like the other congressionals, if they jump, it creates a domino effect as other seek to replace them.  In this district, it’d be a scramble like last time, but with a “new cast of characters,” including Sens. Holly Rehder and Justin Brown.

Vicky Hartzler

·         The most recent wildcard to be dealt into this mix.  It’s said she’s very serious about the race.

·         One Missouri politico told me: “Vicky is the real deal.  She would be hard for anyone to beat”

Blaine Luetkemeyer

·         I haven’t heard anything out of Luetky’s camp.

Mike Kehoe

·         No clear signals from Kehoe which I take to mean that he’s in wait-and-see mode.  One observer thought he’d probably would want a better sense of the intentions of various congressmen before making a final decision.

·         Kehoe said to have a strong relationship with Jeanne Sinquefield.  If they chose to get involved, that could power an independent PAC.

John Brunner

·         One source claims that Brunner has gotten the greenlight from his family if he wants to make another run.  Brunner could and would self-fund again if he ran.

·         Still, it’s unlikely he runs because it’s thought his top priority would be stopping Greitens.  Does entering help accomplish that goal?  Doesn’t seem like it.

Scott Fitzpatrick

·         It’s been quiet from the Treasurer’s office.  He’s either going to bite on this one, or go for auditor.

And finally, Eric Greitens

·         There’s a palpable desire among the political class to do whatever necessary to prevent a Greitens redux.  One consultant said that they thought party “elders” (which I take to mean Blunt, Peter Kinder, Jim Talent) would use whatever powers of persuasion they could to keep the field from becoming a total free-for-all.

·         Two folks said that Greitens has both a hard floor and a hard ceiling.  Those levels: floor in the 20s, ceiling in the 30s.  In other words, he needs three but preferably a four-way primary to win.

And

Social media accounts are getting extra attention in the effort to discern hints of what’s to come…

·         One MOScouter sent me a screen capture of Sen. Caleb Rowden’s latest tweet with the exclamation: “Rowden for Congress!”

·         Likewise, Congresswoman Ann Wagner’s recent tweet about the border wall looked much more like a message in a MOSen primary than one aimed at her more moderate congressional district.

Mrs. Kidd Starts Committee

Jamie Kidd formed a candidate committee to run for House 20 in 2022.   See the paperwork here.  She is the wife of termed incumbent Rep. Bill Kidd.  Kidd was previously a Shawnee County Horticulture Agent.

Of course with redistricting ahead, a lot can, and will, change, but this appears to be a veru strong recruit by Republicans to keep this seat.

Help Wanted

Empower Missouri seeks Criminal Justice Policy Manager. “The Criminal Justice Policy Manager, under the direction of the Policy & Advocacy Director, oversees all criminal justice-related policy research and legislative advocacy for the organization.  The Policy Manager recruits, trains, and maintains a robust, statewide Criminal Justice Coalition comprised of organizations working to reform our justice system.  This position will also lead a major three-year statewide effort towards passing legislation to automate expungement of some criminal records… $45,000-$55,000 starting salary with annual opportunities for merit-based and cost-of-living raises…”   See the ad here.

Lobbyists Registrations

James Bowers and Patricia Jensen added QuikTrip Corporation.

Gamble & Schlemeier added Appriss Inc.                

Paul Mouton added State Technical College of Missouri.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Beverage PAC - $5,223 from Pepsi Beverages Company of St Louis.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Joe Maxwell, Patrick Lynn, Earl Simms, Todd Smith, Pat Rowe Kerr, Tom Self, and Mark Osmack.