MOScout Daily Update: Here We Go Again... Eric Greitens - Budget Bits - Shaul for Senate - Race to Replace Rush and more...

Greitens Enters Senate Race

Everyone saw it coming, but it’s still news… Former governor Eric Greitens announced he’s running for US Senate.

Key considerations…

The scandals that overwhelmed Greitens three years ago.

Over the next sixteen months we’ll probably be revisiting the extraordinary documents produced by The House Special Investigative Committee on Oversight in 2018.  It was formed by Speaker Todd Richardson and was led by Rep. Jay Barnes.  Both Republicans in a Republican supermajority House. 

·         Report #1 outlined the allegations of sexual assault against Greitens. 

·         Report #2 outlined Greitens illegal use of a donor list from his former non-profit. 

·         The Final Report included additional documents.

·         SPOILER: Greitens was not an exemplar of virtue.

GOP Family values AWOL.

Greitens’ website (see it here) has a lot of interesting biographical facts (he’s a sub 3-hour marathoner), but makes no mention of family.  Lots of examples of being a SEAL, yet nothing about being a father, and no pictures with his children.

But doesn’t it really matter?

The question is whether, after a term of Donald Trump, Republican primary voters are inoculated against scandals.  Trump’s infidelity in three marriage, his “locker-room” talk about sexual assault, his tax evasion schemes, not to mention the “perfect” phone call to Ukraine… will Republican primary voters who shrugged these personal failings off suddenly care about Greitens’ two divorces, infidelity, and swiped donor list?

Money

The folks I’ve spoken to think that Greitens will be able to raise the necessary money for the campaign, despite his tarnished brand. 

·         They think he’ll sell a few mega-donors to flood money into a PAC.

·         And they expect he’ll bombard grassroots email lists with Trumpesque rhetoric to cultivate low-dollar donors for this candidate committee.

·         The ballpark folks are talking about…  a statewide budget of $1.5M - $3M in the candidate committee with associated PAC providing millions more.

Widespread disdain.

Pretty much the entire Republican establishment in Missouri dreads a return of Eric Greitens.  And although it may be couched in terms of trying to keep the state from being in play in November 2022, they really don’t like the person of Greitens.

·         As I’ve written previously, the consensus is that he has both a hard floor (20%-ish) and a hard ceiling (35%-ish).  The game plan is to prevent a vote split that could enable Greitens to win the primary with 30%-ish percent.  That means a two-way is safe; a three-way is risky but probably OK; a four-way is frightful.

·         This will be a key argument for pro-Eric Schmitt folks to dissuade others from joining.

Trump Watch

Wall Street Journal, reporting on Greitens’ entry: “In an open Senate seat where the primary is over a year away, I don’t think the president feels any need to weigh in immediately,” one Trump aide said. But, “in terms of Eric Greitens there’s a lot of concern about the guy,” the aide said, adding Mr. Trump is aware of the allegations.

Budget Update

Couple of points in the House budget.  It’s on track to be voted out of committee on Thursday and debated on the House floor next week.

First, the HB 20 funding for MedEx that I’ve been following. 

·         One source says that there’s no big scheme behind the segregation of funding.  It’s really very simple: Budget Chair Cody Smith opposed Medicaid expansion.  He knows there are some members who agree with him and some who don’t.  By putting it in a separate bill it allows everyone to vote their conscience without complicating other funding. 

·         Will it pass out of committee on Thursday?  Will it pass on the floor next week? We’ll see…

Second, the budget shows the legislature’s ire with how the Department of Social Services is operating.

·         In particular, there’s grumbling that the department has had an “acting” director for about two year.  The House wants “stronger leadership” and a permanent director appointed.

·         Among the sanctions in the budget, withholding pay increases to leadership of the department.

Finally, money.

·         MOIndy has a nice breakdown of the philosophical divide between Smith and ranking minority member Peter Merideth.  Read it here.

·         The state is flush with cash now.  Merideth says: use it.  Smith is cautious.

Shaul for State Senate

Press release: Representative Dan Shaul, a republican representing parts of Barnhart, Arnold,

Kimmswick and Imperial in Jefferson County, has announced his intentions to replace

term-limited Senator Paul Wieland. During his time in the House, Shaul has led the fight

to support Jefferson County values and stand strong against policies that promote out of

control government overreach…

Outside of his legislative duties, Rep. Shaul currently serves as the Executive State

Director of the Missouri Grocers Association, a position he has held since 2006. Before

becoming the Executive State Director, he was the director of Mid-America Grocers

Association in St. Louis. Shaul says this experience led him to push back on government

shut downs….

·         We’re still probably seven or eight months away from having state senate districts.  But legislators are announcing their intentions to lay the groundwork for campaigns.

·         This pits Shaul against Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman who announced last month that she would be pursuing the Jefferson County senate seat as well.

·         It’s impossible to say for certain without lines drawn, still it’s a pretty strong assumption given recent trends that Jefferson County won’t be competitive for Dems in 2022.  The winner of this primary will be the next senator.

Race to Replace Rush

Axios reports on “the race to replace Rush” Limbaugh.  Read it here.

There’s a big void right now, and a lot of pundit have their eyes on the prize.  Former Tea Party diva, and NRA spox, Missourian Dana Loesch gets a mention.

Hancock and Kelly Go Cable

Post-Dispatch reports… STL politicos John Hancock and Michael Kelley now are appearing as a regular feature of “The Donlon Report,” a new weekday current-affairs show on NewsNation (the rebranded name of WGN America.) 

The dynamic duo already has been a regular feature in STL on KMOX (1120 AM), where they handle the 8:30-11 a.m. shift on Fridays, and at KTVI (Channel 2), where they hold forth for 30 minutes every Sunday at 8:30 a.m…

“The Donlon Report” is a one-hour long show that made its debut March 1. The show aims to “compete with Fox News and MSNBC” by providing news with less of a political slant, Kelley said…

New Committtees

Citizens for a Democratic 130th was formed.  It’s a PAC.  Its treasurer is Dave Gragg.

House 130 is represented by Republican Rep. Bishop Davidson.  Gragg ran against Davidson last year, losing 77% to 23%.

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard AuBuchon added Inheritage LLC.

Jeffrey Michael Kipping added Emerest.

$5K+ Contributions

Show Me Integrity Action Fund - $10,000 from Center for Election Science.

Gateway to Progress PAC - $7,400 from International Assoc. of Fighters Local #73 PAC.

Together KC - $12,500 from William Gautreaux.

KC BizPAC The Political Action Committee of the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce in Partnership with the Civic Council of Greater Kansas City - $8,000 from The Civic Council of Greater Kansas City.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jacqueline Bardgett, and Tom Loehner.