MOScout Daily Update: Senate 2022 Bombshell... Bad Day for Greitens - Ashcroft Front-Runner - Trump Holds Wild Card and more...
Blunt Passes on Re-election
Senator Roy Blunt announced yesterday that he would not seek re-election. (See the announcement video here).
The surprise jolted a wave of Missouri’s most prominent politicians to declare that they were going to talk to their families and prayerfully consider how they could best serve the state.
Those who names were floated yesterday (my apologies if I missed anyone): Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe, Congressman Billy Long, Attorney General Eric Schmitt, Congressman Jason Smith and Congresswoman Ann Wagner.
And, of course, looming behind all the day’s announcements was Eric Greitens, the former governor, who’d been recently sniping at Blunt.
There wasn’t much consensus among the folks I talked to yesterday about how exactly this all shakes out. But here’s what I think are the takeaways…
Bad day for Eric Greitens.
· He had a one-on-one match-up with a long-time DC politician. It was perfect for the pitch he’d been making as an aggrieved outsider.
· Now his path is much less out of his control. His best scenario is probably a splintered field. And even in that scenario he’ll likely have folks trying to out-Trump him. The path is still there, but it became a lot murkier.
Ashcroft is front-runner – if he wants it.
· His name ID makes him the presumptive front-runner. He pulled received the most votes last cycle of any Republican on the Missouri ballot, pulling down 78,000 more votes than Governor Mike Parson.
· But he may defer until 2024 and run for governor then. One politico: He’s our next GOP candidate for Governor His family is too important to him to go to DC.
Kehoe and Schmitt have “freebees.”
· The other statewides mentioned can run and still retain their current seat if they lose.
· This holds some appeal. Especially if Ashcroft passes and fixes his eyes on the 2024 gubernatorial race.
Time to talk
· Several folks think there will be an effort for candidates to coalesce around one or two strong candidates to minimize the possibility of a Greitens comeback.
· One lobbyist speculates that there could be a deal to be had between someone like Schmitt and Ashcroft where they agree to support each other in their respective 2022, 2024 races.
· One savvy observer thinks the field won’t be settled until Labor Day.
Trump is the wildcard.
· Congressmen Smith and Long have both prostrated themselves in their devoted love for Donald Trump. Will he come through with an endorsement for one of them? That would be the game-changer.
And Then…
And then a strange thing happened… Dems started announcing for Senate too. Former Sen. Scott Sifton had been the lone Democrat willing to step up. But I guess the excitement of the day threw some electricity into the pond. Dems to started announcing! Sen. Brian Williams and KC Mayor Quinton Lucas both said they’re considering jumping in.
And it should be noted that both Claire McCaskill and Jason Kander reiterated for the umpteenth time that they were no-way, no-how running.
Senate Rejects Taxation Bill
After hours of work yesterday on Sen. Bill Eigel’s SB 24, the Senate voted against perfection. It was a sprawling bill dealing with taxation, the centerpiece of which was the phase-out of the personal property tax. Many senators were concerned that the tax’s elimination would hurt local communities’ budgets. The vote was initially a voice vote going against perfection and then a standing division. This means there’s no official record of how the senators voted.
Conservative Caucus staffer Jim Lembke fumed on Facebook: Tonight in the Missouri senate the democrats along with a group of moderate “republicans” killed a bill to phase out the Personal Property Tax. The most hated tax by most Missourians. Elections have consequences. It makes a difference which republicans we elect.
More on Kidd for Senate 11
A few folks weighed in on the news that Rep. Bill Kidd has formed a committee to run for Senate 11.
· Kidd is termed out of the House next year. He had to show his intentions now. He will be out of office for two years before the Senate race. Easier to raise money when you are in office.
· Kidd needs Trump on the ballot in 2024 to win as the district, and he will need the current eastern part of the district to stay in Senate 11. Lasater beat Rizzo almost 2 to 1 in eastern part of district
· Potential Dem candidates in Senate 11: Independence Mayor Eileen Weir, Reps. Robbie Sauls and Rory Rowland, former Reps. Curt Dougherty and John Mayfield, Painters Labor Union leader Jessica Podhola, and Jackson Co Dem Committee Chair Paul Wrabec.
· Kidd has easily held onto his House seat thanks to strong labor support in a swing, working class district. While he would keep that support in a contested primary he wouldn't for the general and his pro-labor voting record may be a turnoff to GOP donors.
Helms to Burlison
Ryan Clearwater, staffer to Sen. Eric Burlison, is heading to a job outside of politics. Steve Helms will be taking his place.
More STL Polling
Show Me Victories release a poll yesterday of the St. Louis City mayoral election next month. It showed City Treasurer Tishaura Jones with a narrow lead over Alderwoman Cara Spencer 40% to 35% with 25% undecided. The margin of error is 4.2%. See the details here.
This is in line with MOScout’s poll last weekend. It showed Jones at 43%, Spencer at 37% and 20% undecided with a margin of error of 4.4%
House Appts
Speaker Rob Vescovo appointed Reps. Dottie Bailey, Keri Ingle and Hannah Kelly to the Special Committee on Government Oversight.
eMailbag
To preempt any potential claim to the contrary, if he were to be nominated and elected, Eric Schmitt would not be the tallest U. S. Senator in history
Luther Strange - 6 feet 9 inches
Alan Simpson - 6 feet 7 inches
Jay Rockefeller - 6 feet 6 1/2 inches
New Committees
Missouri Anti-Corruption Task Force (MACT-PAC) was formed. Its treasurer is Elena Lamprich.
Benjamin Brown formed a candidate committee (Ben Brown For Missouri) to run for Senate 26 as a Republican in 2022.
Jim Hogan formed a candidate committee (Hogan for Representative) to run for House 126 as a Democrat in 2022.
Stephanie Hein formed a candidate committee (Citizens to Elect Stephanie Hein) to run for House 134 as a Democrat in 2022.
Lobbyists Registrations
David Schrock added Janus Capital Management LLC.
Craig Saperstein added Professional Certification Coalition.
Nancy Giddens and Shannon Cooper added Human Rights Campaign.
Deanna Hemphill added Decoding Dyslexia MO.
Richard McIntosh, Bill Stouffer, and David McCracken deleted Cerner Corporation.
Aaron Baker and Hannah Beers deleted Americans For Farmers and Families, DDC Public Affairs, Missouri Values Project, Safe And Strong Missouri, and Cassville Chamber of Commerce.
Aaron Baker deleted Balchem
$5K+ Contributions
Secure The Vote - $25,000 from American Civil Liberties Union.
Missourians for Higher Education - $10,000 from J.E. Dunn Construction.
Local 41 Political Action Fund - $19,039 from DRIVE Committee.
Quality Platte County R-III Schools - $5,001 from Incite Design Studio.
Together KC - $10,000 from Hunt Midwest Enterprises Inc.
Together KC - $25,000 from Cerner Corporation.
314 Forward (pro-Jones) - $10,000 from TheLouPAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Dave Monaghan, Nathan Beard, and Luke Reed.