MOScout Weekender: Long to Mar-A-Lago - MOians Favor MedEx Funding, Passport Ban, and Broader Anti-Discrimination Laws - Hallway Sees GOP Auditor - WWTW and more....

Long Does Mar-A-Lago

It’s not just Congressman Jason Smith who’s jetting down to the Trump club to hold a fundraiser. So is Congressman Billy Long.  See the Mar-A-Lago invite here.

What It Means

Don’t count Long out of the US Senate race yet.  While he hasn’t generated the same buzz as some other candidates right now, Long’s been underestimated before.  Keep at least one eye on this.

Remington/MOScout Poll: Current Issues

Taking a break from the US Senate race to do an issues poll this week.  Among the findings…

·         Missourians, echoing their November vote, would like the legislature to fun Medicaid expansion.

·         They support by a wide margin the effort to ban “vaccine passports.”

·         They’re in favor of extending anti-discrimination laws to cover sexual orientation and gender identity.

·         And they’re split on the idea of legalizing recreational marijuana.

What It Means

I should stop being surprised at how nuanced Missourians are on issues.  The voters have tilted Missouri into solid red-state status over the past few cycles, but one any given issue they traverse the political spectrum.

Survey conducted April 14 through April 15, 2021. 947 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: The state legislature is debating whether to fund the expansion of the Medicaid program approved by voters last year.  Do you support or oppose funding Medicaid expansion?

Support: 51%

Oppose: 41%

Not sure: 8%

Q2: The state legislature is debating vaccine passports. One proposal would prohibit Missouri businesses from requiring customers to show they have been vaccinated for COVID-19 to enter the business. Do you support or oppose this proposal?

Support: 56%

Oppose: 31%

Not sure: 13%

Q3: SB 81 prohibits discrimination based upon a person's sexual orientation or gender identity. Do you support or oppose this bill?

Support: 43%

Oppose: 35%

Not sure: 22%

Q4: Would you support or oppose legalizing recreational marijuana in Missouri?

Support: 43%

Oppose: 40%

Not sure: 17%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Unanimously Picking GOP Auditor

This is a first.  A near unanimous Hallway Index survey of capitol lobbyists.  Usually there’s a couple contrarian outliers.  I guess this the natural result of a few statewide schlackings.  I asked which party will win the auditor’s race next year.   23 replies…

RESULTS

1. Very likely Democrats… 0%

2. Somewhat likely Democrats… 0%

3. Somewhat likely Republicans… 26.1%

4. Very like Republicans… 69.6%

5. Impossible to even guess… 4.3%

Sample of Comments

·         Galloway is good but being a Dem against a credible republican candidate will be tough.

·         Fitzpatrick’s if he wants it, and I don’t know why he wouldn’t. He’d be good at it, and you get to lob bombs and have a free run at other statewide offices.

·         What has changed? The Republican will win by double digits.

·         If the hallway gets this wrong we should probably stop doing this.

·         [Impossible to even guess] Need to know who is running before I can predict. It’s all about the right candidate.

·         Mid-terms are rough for Dems and when a Dem president is in office.

·         Incumbents always get an advantage, but it's hard to see where a statewide D majority exists right now.

Who Won the Week?

Paul Wieland – The JeffCo senator is becoming an impact player with four weeks left in session.  First by attaching a pro-life amendment to the FRA tax renewal, and then by stomping his feet at the Graves appointment.  He’s one to watch this final month of session.

Dems in the Senate – The Republican supermajority doesn’t seem so super right now.  The fault lines are there, if they can exploit them.

Katie Graham – The former intern showed grit, courage and gumption as she testified for HB 1183 this week.

Bill White – Withstood the hours of questioning and saw his water ISRS bill through the Senate.

Rob Vescovo – The speaker wins praises for his consistent zero-tolerance policy in House ethics.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Legal Missouri 2022 - $22,500 from BD Health Ventures LLC.

Citizens for Good Government - $7,300 from Lake St Louis Prof. FF.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Tom Rackers, Joe Pierle, Ryan Silvey, Gregg Hartley, Patrick Shami, and Sarah Fenske.

Sunday: Charlie Hinderliter, Nate Walker, Mike Colona, Amanda Good, Elizabeth Weber, Maria Altman, Jane Bogetto, Aaron Hedlund, and Lori Becker.