MOScout Weekender: Guilfoylologist Mulls Video - Ed Transportation Costs Revision - Hallway Thinks MedEx Happens - WWTW and more...
No MOScout poll this week…
Trump Put Kibosh on Using His Name?
One Missouri political observer wonders if President Donald Trump has told his son’s girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, to refrain from using his name in the Missouri US Senate race. Guilfoyle is Eric Greitens’ “national campaign chair.” In his latest fundraising appeal, she doesn’t mention Trump.
Fiscal Note Footsie?
HB 349’s fiscal note explains the trigger point for the ESA program.
Per an amendment added to this proposal, the tax credit program only becomes effective upon 40% of the required fully funding of the student transportation formula. The current estimates are that it takes $278,900,000 to fully fund the transportation formula. To enact this proposal the transportation formula would be required to receive at least 40% or $111,560,000 in funding annually.
The current Governor recommendation for the Fiscal Year 2022 budget shows a suggested funding of $93,000,000. Therefore this proposal would not become effective in Fiscal Year 2022. At the time of the preparation of the fiscal note, the Fiscal Year 2022 budget has not been completed and therefore, it is unclear if enough funding will be added to the transportation formula to trigger this tax credit.
· However, this estimate of the education transportation formula appears to have been revised aggressively downward. The state budget book lists the amount to fully fund the formula at $315,152,644.
By that estimate, the current budget wouldn’t the 40% threshold ($126M).
eMailbag on Ed Reform Win
Been thinking a lot about how the Ed reformers got to 20 in the Senate. I honestly think this should be a lesson for all the interest groups that constantly say no. Members get tired of that and if the education establishment can lose anyone can. A “no forever” strategy when it comes to lobbying eventually wears out its welcome. Lobbyists should remind their clients of this when it comes to always opposing things.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: MedEx
I asked lobbyists, “Will Medicaid expansion ultimately be implemented in Missouri?” 28 replies…
RESULTS
1. Very likely… 64.3%
2. Somewhat likely… 21.4%
3. Somewhat unlikely… 14.3%
4. Very unlikely… 0%
Sample of Comments
· [Yes,] but it will be very painful for hospitals in the process.
· [somewhat unlikely] Ask the Public Defender system how well its worked for the courts to tell the legislature they have to spend money on something that's a constitutional requirement. The courts will punt on the funding question somehow.
· After a three-year court battle-maybe
· Just gonna take longer the expected.
· The courts may somewhat likely order the legislature to appropriate sufficient funds.
· I don’t think the court case if as cut and dry as most do, but ultimately the courts typically side against the legislature.
· It will happen. And the legislature will fund it, eventually.
· The constitution requires it. It’s going to happen. Judges will now tell us how to spend our money. MO GOP decries judicial activism and then they force it to happen. It’s almost like they don’t care about the policy outcome, just the messaging. Good for Missouri, bad for Democratic politicians.
Who Won the Week?
Kate Casas – “She is unrelenting on checking and rechecking her whips.”
Caleb Rowden and Rob Vescovo – They made it a priority, and were an unlikely, but ultimately complementary team. “They are both very talented negotiators, with very different approaches to negotiations.”
Phil Christofanelli – Many bills have been filed over the years, but it was his that finally made it across the finish line.
Scott Dieckhaus – It’s been a decade-plus long effort stemming back to his days as a legislator, but he lived to see a big school choice victory.
Find a downloadble version here.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Tom Dempsey, and Jeanie Lauer.
Sunday: John Ashcroft, Scott Penman, Gregg Keller, Brett Dinkins, and Don Hicks.