MOScout Daily Update: FRA Heads to the House - What That Vote Looks Like - MO COVID Hospitalizations Shoot Past 800 - Billington on Crime and more...

FRA Heads to the House

With last week’s Senate FRA drama behind us, the renewal bill heads to the House. 

·         The House will hold technical sessions on today and tomorrow, with Wednesday slated for the bill to be taken up.

·         That’s June 30, right up against Governor Mike Parson’s July 1 deadline to implement significant restrictions.  But one source thinks that deadline isn’t as hard as Parson has articulated.  “The FRA will pass before September 30th and Parson has enough GR and FMAP to keep Medicaid afloat until it does.”

The House Landscape

There’s social media chatter from some conservatives in the House indicating that they’ll try to amend the Senate bill to insert an Onder-esque amendment.  I think they’re unlikely to be successful.  The landscape appears to favor approving the Senate version.

·         Dems sound to me like they’re OK with the Senate FRA.  If they were to try to use this vote for leverage or withhold their support, the math would be tough. However, assuming you have their votes, that lessens the chance that conservatives can grab the steering wheel.

·         We’ve seen this path in the Missouri House a few times before.  For example, PDMP faced fierce resistance from the House’s most conservative members, but passed with a bipartisan vote of GOP+Dems.  That’s the blueprint for this vote.

·         While there are some state representatives staring down tough primaries (in St. Charles, or Jefferson County, for example) and worried about an anti-MRL vote, many other reps will follow the vote of their senators who voted to pass this version of the FRA.  Reps with higher office aspirations any farther out than 2022 know that this issue won’t define their race. 

·         Finally, there may not be much appetite for a drawn-out special session.  One Dem: “Would be pretty ironic after we passed it clean without much trouble in session [if] house conservative crazies insist on wasting even more taxpayer dollars [on a weeks-long special session].

More FRA Talk

·         Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin explaining the FRA vote in her capitol newsletter: In Jefferson City, issues are not black and white, they are shades of gray. Our world is not one of easy decisions. Ultimately we could not jeopardize funding for our state's elderly and disabled by not renewing the FRA.

·         One building observer thinks “[Missouri] Right to Life should have claimed some sort of partial win so they didn’t look like such losers.”

·         From the Senate side: The fact that you got that many GOPer to take a vote that they knew was the right thing to do but that they also knew was going to get misconstrued against them on a pro-life issue is a big deal. Speaks to the weakness of MRL…

Partisan Divide Inside MOScout Poll

Last week’s Remington/MOScout poll (see it here) on various general issues showed a sharp partisan divide.

·         Have you been vaccinated for COVID or do you plan to be?  48% self-identified as “very conservative” don’t plan to be vaccinated versus 10% of self-identified “progressives.”

·         Is racism in today’s society “hard to find” or widespread? 43% of Republicans said it was hard to find versus 15% of Democrats.

·         What is the greatest long-term threat to the American way of life? 37% of Republicans said “China” versus 9% of Democrats.  32% of Dems said “global warming” versus 6$ of GOPers.

COVID Hospitalizations Turn Higher

While public policy and political attention has pivoted to other matters, it might be worthwhile to make one more push for vaccinations.

According to the state’s dashboard, hospitalizations due to COVID have turned higher.  They were stuck around the 700 level for month despite the availability of vaccinations.  But now – perhaps because of the “delta” variant – they’ve increased.  This morning the dashboard read 853.

It may be time to make a renewed push to get folks vaccinated.  Right now 38.8% of Missourians are fully vaccinated.

Billington Diagnoses Crime Increase

In an op/ed in the Daily American Republic, Rep. Hardy Billington blames the rise in violent crime on two factors: a police shortage, and lax bail requirements.

• It is no secret that violent crime is going up across our country. Last year, major American cities saw a 33% increase in homicides. In St. Louis, there were 263 killings, giving the city its highest homicide rate in 50 years. This is not just big cities. We have seen in our own communities the destructive effects of this wave of lawlessness…

• For many years we have suffered from continuous attacks on our police officers in response to the actions of a few bad officers. These attacks culminated in those massive protests last year when even elected officials joined calls to “defund” the police. In this environment of disrespect, it is obviously difficult to recruit and retain good officers, which has led to a nationwide police shortage… Both the Poplar Bluff Police Department and Butler County Sheriff’s Department are understaffed.

• Another issue I believe causing the upswing in crime is “bail reform.” Courts across the country have tied the hands of judges by eliminating cash bail in many cases. As a result, criminals are free to continue wreaking havoc in their communities… To ensure this does not happen, I will continue working to support our police and keep dangerous offenders behind bars.

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Lobbyists Registrations

Zackary Scott Dunn added Missouri Kansas Laborers District Council.   

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Nancy Rice.