MOScout Daily Update: Long for Senate Bus?! - CD-7 Starter List - Smith Warns of "KGB-style" Vax Plan - Dem Senate $$ # and more...

More Long Buzz

The Billy Long for Senate buzz continues to grow… MOScouter tips: I heard from a good source that they saw the Long for Senate bus being painted up.  Hear he is in.

·         I believe Long is running.  But just so we’re clear: Bus painting “eye-witness” -> “good” source -> tipster -> me -> you… That’s five-hand gossip for you this morning….

Who Might Run in CD-7

If the chatter is correct and Long jumps into the US Senate race, it will create a second congressional scrum.  Here’s who I’d expected to consider running for CD-7 if Long vacates…

·         Current state senators:  Eric Burlison, Lincoln Hough, Mike Moon, and Bill White.  Of this batch Burlison and Moon seem the most likely heirs to Long.  They both have immaculate conservative credentials. Moon ran in 2010, placing 6ht with 4.3%.  Still, Hough and White could each see a path depending on the size and make-up of the field.

·         Former Speaker Elijah Haahr.  Whenever I’d ask folks where Haahr might end up after his House career, a congressional run was usually part of the possibilities.

·         Budget Chair Cody Smith.  No idea if this has crossed Smith’s mind.  But if it’s field that’s heavy on Springfield names, it would create an enticing opening for a pol from elsewhere.

·         Two lesser known names: Dr. Sam Alexander, and Brandon Williams, Taney County Commissioner.

Meanwhile folks say that Jack Goodman, who placed second to Long back in the 2010 8-way race, wouldn’t even look at the race; he’s happy as a judge.

Bottomline Guess: Two state senators, two other credible candidates and four or so more names on the ballot.  The 2010 8-way primary was won with 36% of the vote.

What It Means

For next session, the prospect of more senators (in addition to those who might run for CD-4) looking at higher office creates ever more possibilities for the upper chamber to get bogged down among conflicting agendas.  In other words, good for Dems.

Feeding Vaccine Hesitancy

Congressman Jason Smith’s tweet over the weekend warned his followers that “The Biden administration wants to knock down your door KGB-style to force people to get vaccinated. We must oppose forced vaccination!”

The tweet was ratioed but also drew an emetic response from the Missouri political community.  One former elected texting me: Not much sadder than when very intelligent people pretend to be total idiots in order to appeal to uninformed people who may well get sick or die as result of the pretender's pathetic vanity and quest for power.

At a time when all public figures should be encouraging vaccination, Smith and other Republicans, are playing for political gains by acting like the bigger threat is some imaginary forced vaccine campaign. 

Meanwhile, Springfield Mayor Ken McClure was on Face the Nation trying to talk sense.  Missouri Independent reports that “McClure said he thought the Delta variant that is causing the massive run up in cases likely came to the city because of its central location for business in southwest Missouri. It took hold because of low vaccination rates, he said, blaming social media for spreading misinformation.”

Ashcroft Pompeo Draw Crowd Amid Rains

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft’s rally, headlined by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, was hit with a rainstorm.  Still one reader in attendance estimated the crowd at “over 350+ despite a downpour of several inches of rain.”

Jay Freezes Sifton? Kunce Still Picking Dem Lock…

Very good points made by a reader here about the July quarterly report from Democratic US Senate candidates….

·         Scott Sifton's numbers are bad, no way around it. But, I think he has been frozen by Jay Nixon. If Nixon gets out, I would expect the DSCC to drop some help in and get those numbers up.

·         Lucas Kunce's numbers are clearly better, but he hasn't unlocked big donors and is raising primarily off of super progressive email lists from folks that are giving in small amounts. His Missouri totals for big donors is almost non-existent….  I don't know of any big Missouri donors getting behind him.

·         Also, none of this matters if Jay gets in DSCC will jump in and both these guys will move on.

eMailbag on Health Care Costs

·         Hospitals account for 31% of health care spending and Rx drugs are 10%. The data is from the National Health Expenditure data from 2019, which is the latest. The article is from Health Affairs (January 2021).  

·         [The polling question] on healthcare cost omitted the “elephant in the room”. The typical American diet along with lack of exercise increases costs more than any of the choices listed.  Rates of morbid obesity and levels of type 2 diabetes are the real issue.

New Committees

Nick Knoth formed a candidate committee (Nick Knoth for Boone County) to run for Boone County Presiding Commissioner as a Democrat.

$5K+ Contributions

Invest in St. Louis Community College - $25,000 from Mercy.

Invest in St. Louis Community College - $10,000 from Laborers' International Union of NA Local 43.

Lobbyists Registrations

Henrio Thelemaque deleted Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Reps. Rusty Black and Chris Brown, John Griesheimer, Tami Holliday, David Overfelt, and Ashley Varner.