MOScout Weekender: STL County Split on Mask Order, OK w Colleges and Employers Requiring Vax - Hallway Hearts Fitz - WWTW and more...
Remington/MOScout Poll: St. Louis County
Survey conducted July 28 through July 29, 2021. 501 likely 2022 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the St. Louis County 2022 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Sam Page's job performance as St. Louis County Executive?
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 36%
Not sure: 26%
Q2: Do you approve or disapprove of the St. Louis County Council's job performance?
Approve: 25%
Disapprove: 42%
Not sure: 33%
Q3: Do you support or oppose the recent order by Sam Page to require mask wearing?
Support: 44%
Oppose: 42%
Not sure: 14%
Q4: Some universities are adopting a policy that students must be vaccinated to attend classes this fall. Do you think that policy is appropriate, or do you think it is inappropriate?
Appropriate: 67%
Inappropriate: 24%
Not sure: 9%
Q5: Some employers are adopting a policy that their employees must be vaccinated. Do you think that policy is appropriate, or do you think it is inappropriate?
Appropriate: 68%
Inappropriate: 26%
Not sure: 6%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: GOP Auditor’s Race
Right now, the lobbying corps sees Fitzpatrick as the front-runner for the GOP nomination. Who do you think will win the Republican auditor's race? 26 replies…
RESULTS
1. Scott Fitzpatrick… 76.9%
2. David Gregory… 11.5%
3. Rob Vescovo… 7.7%
4. Someone else… 3.8%
Sample of Comments
· This race is begging for a female candidate.
· [Fitz] is already auditioning for the job with his lawsuit against the SOS and his efforts on the MHDC. As past House budget chair and a very active Treasurer- may bring a new meaning to performance audits.
· Fitzpatrick is incredibly intelligent and has managed to do a little rebuilding with some of his more strained relationships. Also he will work hard and that can’t be said for DG. Vescovo is interesting, but I would be surprised if he pulls the trigger.
· Scott has the ability to self fund and is universally liked.
· Just won statewide and has a good team behind him. When Fitz gets motivated its hard to get in his way. He seems motivated for this.
· David Gregory is the most qualified and hungry candidate. Predict he clears the field if he maintains his current fundraising pace.
· Fitz will start with far higher name ID than either of them; speakers have to travel statewide so they think they have statewide name, but they don't. Unlike the others, he'll also have the support of every statewide Republican, the ability to write himself a 7-figure check, a plane, and a pilot's license. Combine that with solid conservative credentials and a strong work ethic and there's not much of an opening for the others.
· David wins because he will raise the most money and work the hardest.
· Scott Fitzpatrick is just a good guy. Somehow he has made that work in politics. Usually, decent people don't make it this far.
· If Vescovo decides to run, he will win. He has great donor relationships, and no one else in the race would work half as hard.
Who Won the Week?
Mike Moon – The court’s DeSoto v Parson decision lays a firm hand in favor of bills only having a single subject. One lobbyist was exactly in line with the admonitions Moon has hurled on the Senate floor.
Ben Brown – The Senate 26 candidate seems to be a man made for these times. He looks to ride the anti-mask wave all the way to Jefferson City. Anti-mask could be the new Tea Party for GOP candidates…
Al Watkins – The quotable lawyer seems to have an endless supply of clients here in Missouri. Rep. Tricia Derges is the latest, but won’t be the last.
Scott Sifton – The removal of Jay Nixon looming will make it easier for Sifton to make his case to Dem donors.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson announced appointments…
· Denise Dickens, of Crane, was appointed as the Stone County Clerk.
· Margy Eckelkamp, of Washington, was appointed to the Conservation Commission.
· Shanda Schultz, of Lincoln, was appointed as the Benton County Circuit Clerk.
eMailbag on Nixon and Dems’ Future
Your observation about Nixon and the low tech/high tech announcement makes a larger point: while Nixon would have made it a race, the Dems need newer faces to emerge to make a longer term comeback possible and a Nixon candidacy would have stretched out the time before the party moved forward instead of backwards.
To provide some perspective: There once was an election in Missouri where the incumbent GOP senator won with 68%; his young state senator opponent carried only St. Louis City. In the gubernatorial race, the incumbent GOP candidate took 64% with a 615,000 vote margin against a well-known woman Democratic candidate who carried only St. Louis city, her home county and an adjacent county. (In 2020 Parson won by 497,000 votes against a well-known woman Democrat).
Four years later, that young state senator who was clobbered in the Senate race was elected Attorney General (and eventually Governor) and the Democrats took back the governorship, holding it for 20 of the next 24 years.
Anyone who takes for granted that the current state of Missouri politics will last indefinitely will likely be disappointed (or delighted) sooner than they think, but to change the dynamics the party in the hole must adapt better than the party in power, get really lucky or both (Bill Webster? Eric Greitins?). At some point the Dems will be presented with the opportunity to change the game; it's less likely to be successful if they are trying to return to the past.
$5K+ Contributions
Invest in St. Louis Community College - $50,000 from Centene Corporation.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Rodney Gray, Liz Henderson, and Samantha Davis.
Sunday: Bill Reiboldt, and Shannon Weber.