MOScout Daily Update: Inside the Poll Numbers - Page's Re-elect Path - Reading Smith Tea Leaves - Parson Justice Reform and more...
Partisan Splits in Poll
Last weekend’s Remington/MOScout poll of St. Louis County voters showed an electorate split on the recent mask mandate, but supportive of institutions adopting vaccination policies. A look inside the numbers showed the partisan divide.
Mask Mandate
· Dems favored County Executive Sam Page’s mask mandate by a 48-point margin (70% to 22%).
· Republicans opposed it by a 54-point margin (13% to 67%).
Vaccine requirements
The poll questions on whether it was appropriate for universities and employers to adopt policies requiring vaccinations drew bipartisan support. But Dems’ support was overwhelming, while Republicans’ support was narrow.
Some universities are adopting a policy that students must be vaccinated to attend classes this fall. Do you think that policy is appropriate, or do you think it is inappropriate?
· Dems: 82% - 8%
· GOP: 50% - 39%
Some employers are adopting a policy that their employees must be vaccinated. Do you think that policy is appropriate, or do you think it is inappropriate?
· Dems: 82% - 13%
· GOP: 56%- 38%
This makes intuitive sense to me. Liberal folks have generally been supportive of any efforts to stymie the spread of the virus, and conservatives generally think you should let businesses run their affairs as they see fit.
And
The job approval rating of Page would indicate vulnerability as he looks to the 2022 County Executive race.
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 36%
Not sure: 26%
However, the path isn’t as tricky as it may seem. He’s well above water with Dems (56% to 15%), and as the poll indicates (+16 D weighting) the county has a heavy enough Democratic lean that the Dem nominee should be able to hold in the general election.
Reading Smith Tea Leaves
With Congressman Billy Long’s entry into the US Senate race expected next week, MO crystal balls are now turning their attention to Congressman Jason Smith. The talk on Smith has been that he’d be waiting to make a final decision until early next year. Thinking that they key to winning this Republican primary is a Trump endorsement means that getting in early doesn’t necessarily get you any closer to the goal.
Here’s the conflicting data points on Smith’s state of mind…
· On the one hand, Smith is traveling the state – far outside of his own district, seemingly indicating that he’s looking at Senate.
· On the other hand, he’s uploading fancy dance videos to his Instagram.
Parson Continues Justice Reform Effort
Late last week, “Governor Mike Parson granted 12 pardons and approved two commutations pursuant to Article IV, Section 7 of the Constitution of the State of Missouri.”
While it’s been customary for chief executives to grant pardons at the very end of their time in office, it’s been a hallmark of the Parson Administration to use this power throughout his tenure.
Others surely waited in order to buffer any blowback. This demonstrates a belief that justice should be served without regard to a political timeline.
Arkansas Special
On Missouri’s southern border some this news…
Arkansas Online reports “Gov. Asa Hutchinson on Thursday reinstated Arkansas' public health emergency and said he would call a special session to lift a state law's prohibition on mask requirements for kindergarten through 12th-grade public schools…”
It’s hard to imagine Missouri doing this. Though one reader notes that Arkansas is “not a liberal state by any measure… Arkansas voted for Trump 62.4%. Missouri voted for Trump 56.8%”
New Committees
Relay for Missourians PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Amber Watson.
Lobbyists Registrations
Matthew Dennis Alsager deleted KPMG LLP, The Polaris Strategies Group LC, and Replica. John Cozad deleted AMAROK.
Leah Elizabeth Wiggs Martin deleted American Lung Association.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Mike Talboy, Kimberly Gardner, Dawn Nicklas, Zac Sweets, Starsky Wilson, Tom Todd, and Jim Viebrock.