MOScout Weekender: New US Senate Poll - House GOP To Prioritize IP Reform - Emery Passes - Hallway Divided on Senate Race and more....
Emery Passes
Former state senator Ed Emery, a rock-hard conservative whose gentlemanly mannerisms were seemingly untouched by the pettiness of politics, has died.
Rep. Doug Richey tweeted the news late last night. See it here.
Former chief of staff Josh Foster posted a reflection on Facebook: It’s hard to believe you’re gone. I personally owe so much to you. About 10 years ago, you took a risk on a just-out-of-college 22 year old to be your Chief of Staff. I had no business serving in that capacity, but you believed in me. I learned so much from you during those next 4 years: how to conduct a meeting, how to build relationships, and most importantly, what it means to be a man of great integrity.
No matter a person’s position on the issues, Ed respected them. And because of that, everyone that knew Ed, respected him. I do not know another man with as much integrity or who was as well respected in the State Capitol as Ed Emery.
There is so much more I could say, but one thing is certain, this world, the United States, and the State of Missouri is better off because of the life Ed Emery.
I can’t believe you’re gone, but I know you’re in a better place. You lived your life as a follower of Christ, and now you are in peace with your creator looking down on us.
Until we meet again...RIP Ed.
Bits from HRCC Caucus
The biggest news out of the House Republican Campaign Committee’s summer meeting is that leadership made a commitment to caucus that it would move initiative petition reform “right off the bat” next session. This has been a hot topic for Republican legislators as they’ve watched the IP process be used as an end-run around their supermajorities. First, the increase in the minimum wage, then the CLEAN battles, and now Medicaid expansion. They’re looking to “reform” the process.
Other bits from sources…
· Mike Haffner still in for floor leader… [he] has the edge so far.
· Mike Henderson in for pro tem… seems to be neck and neck with Ben Baker.
· David Gregory got a big response when he showed up, so seems like he has an edge on House people vs Scott Fitzpatrick.
· Billy Long and Vicky Hartzler were at fundraiser, the playing for Senate primary is in full force.
· At least one lawmaker & two lobbyists had their vehicles broken into while in St. Louis…
Remington/MOScout Poll: US Senate and More
Survey conducted August 4 through August 5, 2021. 911 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See full results here.
Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Missouri Supreme Court is doing?
Approve: 28%
Disapprove: 21%
Not sure: 51%
Q2: Possible candidates in the 2022 republican primary election for US Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, and Mark McCloskey. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 27%
Eric Schmitt: 24%
Vicky Hartzler: 13%
Billy Long: 12%
Mark McCloskey: 9%
Undecided: 15%
Q3: Should businesses be allowed to deny entrance to unvaccinated customers?
Yes, they should: 42%
No, they shouldn’t: 44%
Not sure: 14%
Q4: Missouri has started offering incentives to people to get the COVID vaccine. Do you think this is a good use of money?
Yes, it is a good use of money: 28%
No, it is not a good use of money: 60%
Not sure: 12%
Q5: Have you heard of Critical Race Theory, and does it concern you?
I have heard of Critical Race Theory, and it concerns me: 63%
I have heard of Critical Race Theory, but it doesn’t concern me: 15%
I have heard of Critical Race Theory, but I haven’t formed an opinion: 11%
I haven’t heard of Critical Race Theory: 11%
TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Traditional, Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Libertarian, or something else?
Traditional/Establishment: 22%
Evangelical: 13%
Trump: 39%
Libertarian: 7%
Something else: 18%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: US Senate
The lobbying corps sees the US Senate race as anyone’s race – except perhaps McCloskey at this point. I asked the simple but bedeviling question: “who will win?” 25 replies…
RESULTS
1. Eric Greitens… 28%
2. Vicky Hartzler… 16%
3. Billy Long… 24%
4. Mark McCloskey… 4%
5. Eric Schmitt… 20%
6. Someone else… 8%
Sample of Comments
· [Hartzler] Might be antiquated thinking but if it’s a bunch of dudes with no clear front runner than she will win if she keeps her head down.
· Billy wouldn't be jumping in if he didn't think he had the Trump endorsement lined up. He was quoted as saying, “I’m the guy who was with him from day one, the Trump people give me credit for originating the phrase ‘Trump Train’ and like I tell people, ‘I was on the Trump Train early and never got off like a lot of you.’ Now it’s time to get on the Billy Bus.”
· [Hartzler] Lone female and she’s working it.
· [Greitens] Easy-has his base plus some D's in the primary.
· Whomever gets Trump’s endorsement becomes the favorite. And Long seems to be his guy …. at least this week.
· Billy checks a lot of boxes in a crowded field. Unless someone else from SW MO gets in, Billy is the favorite. He comes from the population base of Republican primary voters, STL will be split and limit any local candidates… just wait til these consultants start poking at Schmitt’s various positions on core Republican issues.
· Money always wins, except when money is relatively close and you put Billy Long's personality on stage in rural Missouri versus Schmitt's awkwardness.
· Greitens will win. All of these swamp monsters will try to take down the maverick outsider. Greitens wins a crowded field with 28% of the vote.
· [Long] It pains me to predict this and to imagine him as our senator. But he's gonna get the Trump nod. And hey, at least it's not Greitens.
Who Won the Week?
Mark McCloskey – Gets a pardon from the governor, and a boatload of free press along with it. His entire campaign is premised on his confrontation with the BLM protest. Anything that reminds folks of that is 100% in-line with this campaign strategy.
Vicky Hartzler – Ann Wagner’s decision to forgo the US Senate race and instead run for re-election leaves Hartzler as the lone female in a field of dudes. While that’d be a much more potent advantage in a Dem primary, it still give her an edge in this race.
St. Louis Community College – Their tax increase passed amid a dismally low turnout election, bringing new funding to the critical educational institution at just the time when the state needs to expand its workforce.
Transportation advocates – AFP announced they didn’t pursue a referendum on the gas tax, and Washington prepares to pass an infrastructure bill which will being billions to Missouri.
MO GOP – Congresswoman Cori Bush’s comments about personal security and defunding the police get Republicans fired up, and giddy that they have their 2022 message prepackaged.
Find a downloadable version here.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Carol Kehoe, Rep. Kurtis Gregory, Don Suggs, Vic Allred, and Mike Dethrow.
Sunday: Shawn Furey, Casey Millburg, Greta Bax, and Robbyn Wahby.