MOScout Daily Update: Baringer for Auditor? - Schmitt Tied w Greitens - Hallway on LT GOP - WWTW and more...

Baringer for Auditor?

Word is that Rep. Donna Baringer has been asked by MO Dem Party to consider running for state auditor.  Since Auditor Nicole Galloway announced she wasn’t running for re-election (three months ago) no Democrat has stepped up to fill the void.  The case for Baringer…

·         Serious legislator with no skeletons in her closet.

·         Fiscal conservative who would bring a more moderate face to MO Dem slate.

·         Mid-MO roots in addition to the St. Louis Dem base.

·         Hard working, experienced campaigner.

But…

·         She lacks statewide name ID (as every potential candidate would), and some think two St. Louis Democrats on the ballot is bad idea for next November.

·         She only has $50K in her campaign account and has never raised money on a statewide scale before.

It’s unclear where Baringer’s mind is on the idea, but the smartest move for her personally might be to wait for the results of redistricting and see if there will be a hospitable senate seat in her future.

Dome Goes Red White and Blue Today

Press release: Governor Mike Parson has ordered the Missouri State Capitol dome to shine red and blue beginning on Saturday, September 11, 2021, in remembrance of the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

"On the 20th anniversary of one of the darkest days in our nation’s history, we remember the heroes lost during the 9/11 attacks," Governor Parson said. "This Saturday, we will light the Capitol red and blue in honor of all the firefighters, law enforcement officers, first responders, and all Americans who risked their own lives and made the ultimate sacrifice, without hesitation, to help their fellow Americans."

Remington/MOScout Poll: Republican State of Mind

Survey conducted September 8 through September 9, 2021. 847 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.2% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Mike Parson is doing?

Approve: 69%

Disapprove: 12%

Not sure: 19%

Q2: Possible candidates in the 2022 republican primary election for US Senate are Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, and Mark McCloskey. If the election were held today for whom would you vote? (08/06 results in parentheses)

Eric Greitens: 27% (27%)

Eric Schmitt: 28% (24%)

Vicky Hartzler: 17% (13%)

Billy Long: 8% (12%)

Mark McCloskey: 5% (9%)

Undecided: 15% (15%)

Q3: Possible candidates in the 2022 republican primary for state auditor are Scott Fitzpatrick and David Gregory. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Scott Fitzpatrick: 29%

David Gregory: 10%

Undecided: 61%

Q4: The Supreme Court recently allowed a Texas law which prohibits all abortions after 6 weeks.  Do you think Missouri should pass a similar law?

Yes: 74%

No: 15%

Not Sure: 11%

Q5: Would you favor or oppose businesses requiring people to show proof of coronavirus/COVID-19 vaccination in order to dine in a restaurant over the next several months?

Favor: 10%

Oppose: 74%

Not sure: 16%

TYPE OF GOP: Thinking about the various types of voters within the Republican party, which type of voter do you consider yourself to be? Traditional, Evangelical, a Trump Republican, Libertarian, or something else?

Traditional: 18%

Evangelical: 15%

Trump: 46%

Libertarian: 4%

Something else: 17%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: GOP Long Term

I asked lobbyists, “What is the greatest long-term threat to the Republican political control in Missouri?” 22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Demographics… 27.2%

2. Losing touch with average Missourians… 13.6%

3. Republican in-fighting… 36.4%

4. Something else… 22.7%

Sample of Comments

·         It is a long, long way from happening in Missouri, but if the national trends on demographic changes eventually make it to MO, that will be their problem unless there are platform shifts.

·         [In-fighting] Missourians are by and far Republican and demographics won't change that much. The cracks are already there- conservative caucus vs moderates...

·         While Republicans are tripping over themselves to bow to rural America, people are moving to the cities and suburbs where there’s jobs and infrastructure investment.

·         I selected “something else” because I can’t pinpoint what it would be. In-fighting will continue to factionalized the party, but that is a result of expansion, not retraction.

·         National Democrats killed the Dems in Missouri. People that think the GOP is too far right here don’t get politics.

·         All politics are national right now. Until national democrats figure out how to relate to average Missourians Republicans will dominate. The more we see AOC and Cori Bush on the airwaves the redder Missouri will get.

·         Corruption

·         I don’t think there’s much of a threat long-term. But if there were, it’s in-fighting.

·         The Rapture would be a big problem for the Republicans moving forward. The Dems should keep an eye out for that.

Who Won the Week?

Missouri Republicans – We’ve experienced a summer blizzard of press releases from Missouri Republicans in response to the Biden Administration rolling out new vaccine mandates.  2022 will see MO GOP running against Washington Dems again.

Scott Sifton – After a few months of struggling to get any traction in his US Senate race, he seems to have found his issue with the non-ruling on the Texas abortion law. 

Mary Elizabeth Coleman and Nick Schroer – Eying how Missouri can offer follow-on legislation after seeing the Supreme Court punt on Texas’ abortion law.  It’ll be a chance to reprise their bona fides on the pro-life issue to primary voters

Chuck Hatfield – MOIndy reports the SuperAttorney is billing the treasurer’s office for legal work at nearly $500/hour, and I’m told even that rate is likely “heavily discounted, which is often the case with government clients.”

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Uniting Missouri PAC - $25,000 from Ameren Missouri.

HealthPAC - $5,100 from SWMO Healthcare Committee.

Final 4 Missouri - $132,779 from Article IV.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $7,500 from New Growth Horizon, LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $22,500 from Ghost Management Group LLC.

Missouri Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from United Food and Commercial Workers International Union.

Committee to Protect the Road to Missouri's Future - $15,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to A.J. Bockelman and TJ Berry.

Sunday: Sam Brownback, Drew Dampf, and Steve Helms.