MOScout Daily Update: Gelner Huge Quarter - Roorda to Run for Senate - Clay Hearts Long? - January Quarters - Parson Mum on COVID? and more...

Earthquakes in Senate Primaries

Two potentially seismic eruptions happened yesterday in two Republican state senate primaries.  First, Brian Gelner filed his January quarter.  Gelner is a businessman running in Senate 20 to replace Sen. Eric Burlison and he had a huge quarter.

·         Gelner raised over $250,000 without a big personal contribution (which it appears he’s capable of making by the way)

·         All the contributions were from “real world” folks.  I don’t think there was a MOScout reader on the report.  I don’t remember that ever happening. 

·         Then later in the day checks started showing up on MEC website to Missouri Common Sense PAC, an apparently allied PAC for Gelner.  I’d consider him the favorite now in this race, or at the very least Rep. Curtis Trent is in a real dogfight.

The second earthquake had been rumored for a few weeks.  Former Rep. Jeff Roorda announced that he’s switching parties (from Democrat to Republican) and running for Senate 22 where Sen. Paul Wieland is termed.  This race has been in flux as Speaker Rob Vescovo was once considered a candidate, but ultimately decided not to run, and Becky Ruth was a candidate before receiving a gubernatorial appointment instead. 

·         Roorda said he expects that labor will coalesce behind his candidacy.  That’s probably wishful thinking.  He may get support from a local or two, but the big unions will stay away.  Black Democrats are much more important to organized labor than a single state senate seat, and Roorda’s radioactive on that front.

·         Roorda put in $100K (see the large contributions below), but wouldn’t say if it’s an actual contribution or just a loan.  That means it’s a loan.  So we’ll see whether it’s legit ammo or just bluster at the end of the day.

·         Roorda’s entry does light a fire under Jefferson County Clerk Ken Waller to decide if he’s running for state rep or state senate.  He would be labor’s top choice for this race.

January Quarters

Gubby 2024

Jay Ashcroft raised $17,676; and has $512,290 on-hand.

•           Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $199,127 COH.

Mike Kehoe raised $208,480; and has $483,126 on-hand.

•           American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $899,517 COH.

Takeaways: Kehoe has taken the command f the money race here.  It doesn’t seem that Ashcroft has even started.  Ashcroft will start with much higher name ID because of his family name, but if Kehoe continues to consistently put up these numbers the dynamic of the race will be quite different in two  years as we start 2024.

Auditor

Scott Fitzpatrick raised $104,049; and has $528,481 on-hand.

•           Missourians for a Responsible Budget (pro-Fitz) - $273,654 COH.

David Gregory raised $35,999; and has $439,445 on-hand.

•           Show Me Growth PAC (pro-Gregory) - $352,789 COH.

Takeaways: These two remained locked in a tight money race with no clear leader.  And it remains under if either will have the firepower to cut through the mess of US Senate ads this summer.

Senate 2 – St. Charles, Bob Onder termed.

Nick Schroer raised $33,404; and has $104,369 on-hand.

•           1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $230,040 COH.

John Wiemann raised $10,925; and has $144,941 on-hand.

•           JW Leadership PAC (pro-Wiemann) - $85,881 COH.

Takeaways: I expected more fundraising from the St. Charles area where there’s a strong base of Republicans.

Senate 10 – Callaway County, Jeanie Riddle termed

Travis Fitzwater raised $9,000; and has $66,654 on-hand.

·                     Kingdom Leadership PAC (pro-Fitzwater) - $2,241 COH.

Bryan Spencer raised $2,276; and has $143,497 on-hand.

Takeaways:  Remarkably little fundraising action here with the primary now about six month off.  Reminder: Spencer’s COH is fortified by a $100K loan to himself from earlier.

Senate 20 – Springfield, Eric Burlison for US Senate.

Brian Gelner raised $263,900; and has $256,082 on-hand.

·                     Missouri Common Sense PAC (pro-Gelner) – started after deadline.

Curtis Trent raised $86,558; and has $219,746 on-hand.

·                     417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $30,140 COH

Takeaways: Trent had a solid quarter, but Gelner’s was very impressive – and if building money starts showing up on his next report, it will be very hard for Trent to keep up.

Senate 22 – Jefferson County, Paul Wieland termed

Mary Elizabeth Coleman raised $18,805; and has $80,048 on-hand.

•           Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC (pro-Coleman) - $15,315 COH.

Dan Shaul raised $16,900; and has $53,227 on-hand.

•           JeffCo Vision PAC (pro-Shaul) $76,192 COH.

Takeaways: Vescovo’s previous flirtation with this seat made fundraising difficult, and now there’s the entry of Roorda and the potential entry Waller.  Continues to be a race in flux.

Senate 26 – Franklin County, Dave Schatz termed

Ben Brown raised $32,250 raised with $80,812 on-hand. 

·                     BB Freedom PAC (pro-Brown) – started after deadline.

Robert Jones raised $18,200; and has $18,200 on-hand.

Takeaways: Jones is playing catch-up as a new candidate.  He recently added a personal contribution of about $80K, but what this doesn’t show is the grassroots activity that Brown has had in place for many months.

Top 25 Committees COH

Carpenters Help In The Political Process (CHIPP) - $2,106,179.

Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC - $1,280,528.

Better Elections - $928,632

American Dream PAC - $899,507.

MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $663,171.

Luetkemeyer For Senate - $610,999.

Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $605,076.

Fitzpatrick For Missouri - $528,481.

Leadership For America - $514,414.

Ashcroft For Missouri - $512,290.

Missouri Realtors PAC Inc - $496,109.

Callahan For Missouri             - $484,658.

Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $483,126.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $477,197.

Mighty Missouri PAC - $475,325.

Friends Of Gregory FX Daly - $472,600.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $462,781.

Gregory For Missouri - $439,445.

Friends Of Eric Burlison - $433,598.

The Krewson Committee - $413,375.

McCreery for Missouri - $409,367.

BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $407,752.

We Are Missouri - $380,225.

Uniting Missouri PAC -$377,771.

Lucas For KC - $370,358.

Lembke Touts Schroer

On Facebook, former Sen. Jim Lembke touted Rep. Nick Schroer’s introduction of a “7-1” map in yesterday’s House debate on congressional redistricting.

I just witnessed one of the greatest displays of courage I have seen in the Capitol in a long time. Rep. Nick Schroer stood up against The Speaker, House leadership and the world to do the Republican thing. He offered a 7-1 congressional map. The Speaker demanded he take back his amendment, he refused. Then the Speaker ruled his amendment out of order to appease the democrats. Nick Schroer is on his way to the state senate. Many others are on their way home. Republicans have forgotten how to win. We need to start electing the right republicans.

What It Means

Lembke is consigliore to the Senate’s Conservative Caucus.  This portends fireworks when the map is debated there.  But also means that Schroer might see some resources from Sens. Bill Eigel and Bob Onder’s St. Charles network to bolster his state senate fundraising?  We’ll see…

MOIndy on Feebees

Missouri Independent reports on the latest indications that the FBI has been busy investigating various potential misdeeds.  Read it here.

Clay Hearts Billy?

One reader sent me this nugget that was in Lacy Clay’s DOJ foreign agent registration.  (The contribution date entry is apparently wrong and is supposed to be 1-5-2022.)

COVID Off the Charts

Missouri COVID hospitalizations and ICU patients have not abated.  Governor Mike Parson has given no indication that this is at all on his 2022 agenda, but I also can’t imagine he’s just going to ignore it.  I guess the State of State speech will offer a window into how he’s viewing this spike.

New Committees

Citizens for Excellence in Education was formed.  It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Janay L Mosley.

Jeffrey Roorda formed a candidate committee to run for Senate 22 as a Republican.

Missouri Common Sense PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Andy Fechtel.  This appears to be an IE PAC for Brian Gelner, running in Senate 20.

Lobbyists Registrations

Aaron Baker and Hannah Beers Sutton added National Coalition for Public School Options.

Scott Swain added Quality Schools Coalition, iDevelopment and Economic Association, and Clean Grid Alliance.

Shawn Rhoads added LS Power Midcontinent LLC, and Southwest Transmission LLC.

Kaycee Nail added Missouri 911 Service Board.

Jay Hahn added W.E. Shoehigh, LLC on behalf of Microsoft Corporation, and W.E. Shoehigh, LLC on behalf of Accela Inc; and deleted BreathableBaby LLC, VRBO, Expedia Group, Naha Health LLC, Accela Inc, and Microsoft.

Stephen Nittler deleted Expedia Group, Naha Health LLC, ACT Inc, Young Conservatives for Energy Reform, and Microsoft Corporation.

Bill Shoehigh deleted Wisper ISP, Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Wright For Missouri - $100,000 from Dale Wright.

Roorda For Senate - $100,000 from Jeffrey Roorda - Revocable Trust.

Missouri Common Sense PAC - $20,000 from Matthew Mayse.

Missouri Common Sense PAC - $25,000 from Richard Gelner.

Missouri Common Sense PAC - $10,000 from Mathew Klimisch.

Missouri Common Sense PAC - $10,000 from Robert Harris II.

Missouri Forward PAC - $10,000 from MO Coalition for Video Lottery PAC.

Friends For A New Day - $8,000 from Jeremy Day.

Crystal Blacketer for Judge - $55,000 from Crystal Blacketer.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Michael Butler, Scott Faughn, and Michele Kratky.