MOScout Daily Update: Greitens Leads US Senate Poll - MOChamber Preview Nuggets - CD-2 Purple to Blue? - Drebes as Old-Timer? and more....

The legislative session starts today at noon.  Today is a day for speechifying, and not much more. 

·         Here’s something that boggles my mind… I started MOScout back during the 2007 session.  That means – due to term limits – I’ve been in the building longer now than any of the legislators.  And I’m not even an old-timer.  I’m still learning new angles and nuggets each year.  When things go off-kilter this session, maybe we shouldn’t blame the legislators, but instead blame the system?  I don’t know.

MOChamber US Senate Polling

I attended the Missouri Chamber’s session preview yesterday, Capitol Insight.  Pat McFerron, of CMA Strategies, presented polling on the US Senate race.  McFerron polls for the Chamber’s Political Institute.  It was a relatively small sample of 400, so keep in mind the +/- 5% margin of error.

Make up the GOP primary electorate

41% always vote for most conservative candidate

35% usually vote for most conservative candidate

11% vote for moderate candidate

15% undecided

44% Trump Republicans

31% Traditional Republicans

12% Evangelical Republicans

12% undecided

Candidates Favorable / Unfavorable

Eric Greitens  51% / 19%

Vicky Hartzler  29% / 7%

Billy Long  17% / 10%

Mark McCloskey  23% / 9%

Dave Schatz  7% / 4%

Eric Schmitt  44% / 7%

Horserace

Eric Greitens  27%

Vicky Hartzler  12%

Billy Long  6%

Mark McCloskey  4%

Dave Schatz  1%

Eric Schmitt  15%

Undecided  36%

A few thoughts… 

·         While nothing is totally shocking here.  Seeing the big undecided number of 36% is a good reminder that the race is still fluid.  And, of course, the big unknown is whether Trump will endorse.  It would remake this race.

·         The conventional wisdom is that the southwest corner is extremely vote-rich for Republicans, but it’s interesting that Long isn’t able to translate that into support. 

·         Schatz’ incredibly low fav/unfav numbers shows how he’s a complete unknown statewide.  He has a huge task ahead of him to even get on the radar.  One consultant estimates that it’ll take about $5 million for Schatz to get where he needs to be.

Other MOChamber Session Preview Nuggets

·         There appears to be bipartisan support to do some substantial spending to upgrade the state’s IT systems.  Both Reps. Doug Richey (R) and Crystal Quade (D) gave the notion a strong endorsement.

·         Legislators seem truly befuddled by the shrinking workforce.  This is not a Missouri problem.  This has become a national issue.  Rep. John Wiemann ascribed the shortage to a lack of work ethic, citing 20-somethings who are still living in their parents’ basement.  Quade pointed to lack of child care as an obstacle.  And Sen. Brian Williams offered expungement as a remedy to bring more workers into the fold.  There’s no consensus.

·         Both Richey and Sen. Caleb Rowden mentioned concern about the federal deficit as a reason not to spend the entire federal largess headed to Missouri.  Obviously, that’s an insane rationale.  The $3 billion is a grain of sand in the context of a $30 trillion debt.  Meanwhile passing up the chance to make investments while other states use their funds is unilaterally disarming in the economic competition. 

eMailbag on CD-2

The proposed House CD 2 map is clearly a purple district which demographically will trend blue.  And it’s not just a Trump problem… Trump got 51.62% of the new proposed district [in 2020].  For a Republican, R+3 isn’t great.  But look at the performance of other Republicans in recent elections: Hawley 2018 - he narrowly lost the new CD2 with 49.7% of the vote.  And Blunt, after his name ID and many millions of $, narrowly won it with 50.05%.

If this isn’t a purple district, I don’t know what is.  And demographically it is likely to trend the wrong way… The problem is that St. Louis County has been trending blue for a long time.  Keeping CD2 St. Louis County-centric and keeping it Republican are mutually exclusive goals.

Wheeler to Eslinger

Will Wheeler has been hired as Sen. Karla Eslinger’s new chief of staff.  Wheeler was previously Field Representative for US Senator Roy Blunt in Springfield.

He takes the place of Dan Engemann who joined the Farm Bureau as Director of Regulatory Affairs.

You Get What You Pay For

Daily Journal reports on St. Francois County redoing its county seal after its current one – designed by the presiding commissioner – has fallen flat.

Due to public demand, St. Francois County Presiding Commissioner Harold Gallaher announced Tuesday that the county is looking at doing some redesigning of perhaps its most noticeable item, the county seal.

“I understand that it’s a fever pitch on social media about the county seal," he said. "It was a rush deal way back when, I had two days for the public to come up with a seal and my design is proof positive that I am not artistically inclined…I would like the seal to not have much red color, it fades too quickly,” Gallaher said. “I would like it to be better than the seal we have now, which would be a slam dunk.”

As Gallaher said that he does not want to spend taxpayer money on designer fees, County Clerk Kevin Engler suggested having a contest. Gallaher agreed and Engler said that the parameters of the contest will be announced at the commission meeting next Tuesday.

Lobbyists Registrations

Scott Bilger added Phillips 66 Company.

Rebecca Brown added Innocence Project.

Kathryn Harness added Attwood Public Affairs, and ITG Brands; and deleted Uniform Law Commission.

Justin Michael McCarty added Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 178.

Dawn Nicklas added Steven R. Carroll & Associates; and deleted Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes.

Eapen Thampy added Crypto World, Pinnacle Distribution, and Federal Storage.

Kelvin Simmons deleted Vantage Airport Group.

Francis G. Slay deleted Green Street St. Louis, and Midas Hospitality, LLC.

Tony Dugger, Neal English, Andrew Foley, Chris Liese, and James Foley deleted MCTA – The Missouri Internet & Television Association.

Jeremy LaFaver deleted BusPatrol America LLC, Missouri Soybean Association, American Clean Power Association, and Backcountry Hunters & Anglers - MO Chapter.

 Rodney Boyd, Kate Casas, Brian Grace, and Kelvin Simmons deleted STACS DNA Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Conte Enterprise Holdings, LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $7,500 from OWG III LLC.

Legal Missouri 2022 - $90,000 from BD Health Ventures LLC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

A Better Missouri Political Action - $7,860 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.

Committee to Elect Judge Juli Hand - $150,000 from Julianne Hand.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Reps. LaKeySha Bosley and Joe Adams, Emilee Lakin, and Sara Lampe.