MOScout Weekender: First Poll of New CD-7 - Hallway Sees Haffner Ahead - WWTW and more...

Only in MOScout: Poll of New CD-7

This poll was conducted based on the proposed map of the 7th Congressional District. Survey conducted January 6 through January 7, 2022. 797 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022 Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.4% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.  See the full results here.

Q1: What do you believe to be the greatest threat facing the United States today?

China: 15%

Election Fraud: 32%

Federal Debt: 8%

Illegal Immigration: 12%

Inflation: 6%

Terrorism: 3%

Something else: 12%

Not sure: 12%

Q2: When thinking about your next United States Congressman, would you rather have someone whose first priority is helping Southwest Missouri, or someone whose first priority is fighting the agenda of the Biden Administration?

Help Southwest Missouri: 38%

Fight the agenda of the Biden Administration: 58%

Not sure: 4%

Q3: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary Election for United States Congress are Sam Alexander, Eric Burlison, Mike Moon, Audrey Richards, and Jay Wasson. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Sam Alexander: 6%

Eric Burlison: 21%

Mike Moon: 12%

Audrey Richards: 3%

Jay Wasson: 9%

Undecided: 49%

Q4: President Donald Trump has claimed that he won re-election, and that Joe Biden’s victory is only due to fraudulent voting.  Do you agree?

Yes, Trump won: 64%

No, Trump did not win: 26%

Not sure: 10%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Next House Floor Leader

I asked the lobbying corps, “Who’s the front runner to be the House Majority Floor Leader?”  26 replies…

1. Mike Haffner…57.7%

2. Hannah Kelly…19.2%

3. Jonathan Patterson… 23.1%

Sample of Comments

·         Haffner has put in the early work and the job is his to lose. Committing to the floor leader race, and putting a run for Congress to the side, was smart.

·         The Congressional thing was a little overly dramatic, but I don’t think you pass on that if you don’t feel pretty good about your chances to win the position.

·         Haffner will outwork everyone.

·         Seems like it is [Haffner’s] to lose as long as he doesn't make any waves this session.

Who Won the Week?

Caleb Rowden – It’s early, and the Senate is a mercurial creature.  But the empty Senate floor during the opening day airing of grievances signals that he’s solidified his support with the “regulars,” a good omen for his pro tem bid.

John Rizzo – The Senate Minority Leader’s job is not easy by any measure.  No way.  But his job does get easier with Republican in-fighting.  Dividing is easier than opposing often.

Mary Elizabeth Coleman – With Rep. Dan Shaul tasked to defend and push the 6-2 map, it seems Coleman has been given an angle to outflank him on the right side. 

Bishop Davidson – Most folks focus on chairmanship appointments.  But perhaps as important for folks “looking around the corner” to identify the next crop of leaders was Davidson’s appointment as vice-chair of the Emerging Issues Committee.  That’s a big vote of confidence to give a freshman.

Cindy O’Laughlin – Her PAC has received checks from Herzog and Sinquefield. Not bad for a candidate without an opponent.  Could start talk of her as a possible statewide candidate in 2024 with both grassroots and mega-donor appeal.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+ Contributions

Better Elections - $58,605 from Article IV.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Charter Communications.

Minchew for Mayor - $10,000 from Richard Miller.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Mike Cunningham, and Janson Thomas.

Sunday: Caleb Jones.