MOScout Daily Update: School Shooting in STL - Political Impact - Parson Sends Prayers, But Will He Seize the Moment?

School Shooting in St. Louis

St. Louis was rocked yesterday by a school shooting. Read the Post-Dispatch article here.

The school is not far from me.  It’s on the other side of the park that I jog every morning.  My family knows lots of families that send their kids there.  But here’s the politics of the event as I see it…

Bad news for Mark Mantovani and George Hruza running in St. Louis County.  The shooting was in the city, but the impact will reverberate throughout the region.  Republicans have claimed the Second Amendment as their sacred oath.  In so much as voters think that guns are out of control, they’ll get the blame.

This may also benefit Dems running in close Houser races in St. Louis County.  The three on my Battleground list…

·       House 92… Rep. Michael Burton running for re-election.

·       House 96… Leslie Derrington running in David Gregory’s old seat.

·       House 98… Deb Lavender running in Trish Gunby’s old seat.

The Bigger Picture: Gun Divide

There’s a partisan gun divide. 

·       According to Pew Research, most Republicans (53%) are okay with the current regulations on guns.  Slightly more (27%) think laws should be more lax than those (20%) that think they should be strict. Democrats, on the other hand, overwhelmingly (81%) want tighter laws.

·       According to the same survey Republicans are inclined to believe that more guns would reduce crime.  They presumably envision an army of vigilantes acting as a deterrence against would-be evil-doers.  Democrats however believe more guns leads to more crimes. 

But – despite this deep divide – there is common ground on the issue.

Parson’s Moment

This could be Governor Mike Parson’s moment.  As yet, there’s no indication he’s going to seize it.  Rather, it appears the moment is passing him by.

Yesterday he tweeted the expected “thoughts and prayers” sentiment.

Our hearts go out to the victims and their families of this morning’s shooting at Central Visual and Performing Arts High School in St. Louis. Our office has been briefed on this tragedy… Teresa and I are praying for the victims, their families, and the entire community.

But there’s been no advisory that he’s changing his public schedule this week (among other events today, the governor is scheduled to receive his flu shot at the State Capitol) to come and address the grieving and shocked St. Louis community.

This could be Parson’s “Nixon to China” moment.  He has the credibility as a former sheriff.  He’s had to confront crime.  He’s had to shoot his gun in the line of duty.  He can address the subject of gun violence from a professional capacity and personal experience.  He’s the governor from the majority party.  Just as he talked about a balanced approach to the COVID epidemic, he can stake out a balanced approach to gun violence. 

Where do you start?  Where there’s common ground.  Again, from Pew Research the three with bipartisan support…

·       Prevent folks with mental illness from buying guns.

·       Background checks for sales at gun shows.

·       Require a permit for conceal carry.

Will folks complain that these measures won’t stop all gun shootings? Yes.  Is this what Dems want? No.  Is it “local control” (which probably makes the most sense on this issue)? No.  But it’s a start.  And it could be Parson’s legacy to lead his party away from an unreasonable blanket all-gun-laws-are-bad position.

Lobbyists Registrations

Andy Blunt and Jay Reichard added FEI Systems.

$5K+ Contributions

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $50,000 from Herzog Contracting Corporation.

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House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $8,000 from Missourians for Bishop Davidson.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,000 from Henderson for Missouri.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $6,500 from Friends of Rodger Reedy.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $5,007 from Bill Hardwick for Missouri.

Serve Missouri PAC (pro-McCreery) - $7,600 from Alliance For Progress LLC.

Move Forward STL (pro-Mantovani) - $25,000 from GJ Grewe Inc.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $50,000 from William Darr.

Missourians for Safer Streets (pro-A4) - $10,000 from Gary Forsee.

1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC (pro-Cody Smith) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Prosperous Missouri PAC - $75,000 from Tony PAC.

Together KC - $10,000 from Every Metro Inc.

Together KC - $25,000 from KC Hotel Property Owner LLC.        

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Shantel Dooling and Redditt Hudson.