MOScout Daily Update: Tilley Backs Bailey - 2024 Names - Hruza for Plocher Seat - Moody See "Revenue Plateau" and more...

Tilley Backs Bailey

Lobbyist Steve Tilley is holding a fundraiser for Andrew Bailey this Wednesday. 

Bailey is Governor Mike Parson’s pick to be the next attorney general.  He’ll finished the final two years of Eric Schmitt’s term.  Schmitt was elected to the US Senate.  But in 2024 Bailey will be running for re-election, and he’ll almost certainly face a primary challenge.  Will Scharf announced last week that he’s formed a candidate committee to raise money.  And others may join the race as well.  Others who were mentioned for the job are likely considering jumping in.  Those names: Former US Attorney Tim Garrison, Judge Chris Limbaugh, and Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer.

·       Bailey’s best defense against a widening free-for-all primary is to show broad political support.  So it’s helpful if Parson’s allies, like Tilley, circle the wagons.

·       Bailey hasn’t formed a candidate committee yet, so the invite asks for checks to be made to the Liberty and Justice PAC.  PACs aren’t constrained by contribution limits, but the candidate can’t direct their expenditures.

2024 Dance Card

With the Republican primaries for governor and attorney general both seemingly off to fast fundraising starts, I wonder if we’ll see folks declaring for other offices as well.  The governor’s pick for the next treasurer could determine if that becomes another interesting primary.  Lieutenant Governor and secretary of state will both be vacated as Mike Kehoe and Jay Ashcroft battle for governor.

Here are some names…

·       Speaker Dean Plocher… $515K in his candidate committee, and $706K in his PAC, Missouri United.  And he’s changed his committee to say that he’s seeking a statewide office.

·       Exiting House Speaker Rob Vescovo… He’ll be out of the mix, but could make a return sitting on $118K in his candidate committee and $467K in his PAC, Mighty Missouri PAC.

·       Sen. Lincoln Hough… $222K in his candidate committee and $129K in his PAC.

·       Termed Sen. Bob Onder… It’s hard for me to believe that Onder has run his last race.  A little over $200K in his candidate committee, and a proven fundraiser.

And on the Dem side…

Current speculation has Minority Leader Crystal Quade running for governor in 2024, and a return of Lucas Kunce to challenge US Senator Josh Hawley.

Hruza Eyes Plocher Seat

George Hruza has formed a candidate committee to run for House 89 in 2024.  That’s the district that Speaker Dean Plocher represents. 

·       Hruza spent about $900K of his own money as he unsuccessfully ran for Senate 24, losing last month to Rep. Tracy McCreery.  But the experience apparently didn’t sour him on politics.

·       Hruza ran a right-center campaign as he competed in the Dem-leaning Senate 24.  For House 89 he may need to tack a bit more to the right as the Republican primary will determine this district’s (+12R) representation.

·       By getting an early start, Hruza may be trying to freeze out others considering running. 

Range-Bound State Revenues Ahead?

Budget watcher Jim Moody warns subscribers to his Moody Report of a potential scenario in the years ahead… “what we are calling a Permanent Revenue Plateau (PRP).  We will say that the PRP will be between $13.1 billion and $13.5 billion in future fiscal year collections… What do we mean by PRP, or this so-called plateau?  Basically, the plateau means that once revenues hit that range, they will then decline due to future tax cuts… When we utilize the term Permanent in our PRP example, we do not mean forever, but rather a medium-term period of about nine to years or so, as the ‘permanent’ period.  But for budget-watchers, essentially very little growth for almost ten years will feel like an eternity…”

Chief Candidate Drops

One of the candidates to become the next Police Chief of St. Louis City has dropped out of the running.  WISTV reports that Melron Kelly, Deputy Police Chief of Columbia South Carolina, has withdrawn his name from consideration.

·       No reason was given, so it’s out of sheer speculation that I wonder if he looked at the bills being pre-filed to have the state take over the city police force and wondered what tricky political situation he’d be walking into, and would the boss who hired him end up being his boss after all.

Legal Missouri Spent $8.8M

The successful campaign to pass recreation marijuana use spent $8,877,099, according to its 30 Day After filing.  The campaign was funded almost entirely by medical marijuana companies.

·       The opposition campaign was largely a grassroots hodge-podge coalition with very limited spending.

·       The measure passed 53% - 47%.

Lobbyists Registrations

Tom Dempsey and Dave Berry added SirenGPS.

Ashley Lawson deleted Parents Bill of Rights PAC.

Jeremy Kudon and Sean Ostrow deleted Bally's Corporation.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Rudolph Farber.

American Dream PAC - $12,000 from Rick Ball.

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Bob McCosh.

RightDirection PAC - $10,000 from Missouri United.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Noel Torpey, Celeste Rueter, Sal Martinez, Sreenu Dandamudi (the big 5-0), and Chris Girouard.