MOScout Daily Update: Kehoe's Uphill Road - How Bailey Wins - From Blunt and Bond to Hawley and Schmitt - Functional Senate Vibes? and more....
Kehoe’s Uphill Road
One MOScouter thinks that the hallway sentiment on Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe’s gubernatorial chances is too optimistic.
· Your latest pre-Thanksgiving polling put Jay Ashcroft ahead of Kehoe by over 30 points (44% - 11%). Barring any significant expenditure resources, those numbers will marginally stay the same prior to candidate filing next February. T
· Closing a 30+ point gap is not insurmountable, but certainly a large, steep hill to climb.
· The math: it costs $750K for a PAC to run ONE ad statewide. At a minimum, for an effective campaign statewide, you have to define yourself (2-3 ads) before your opponent has an opportunity to define you, plus run contrast in an attempt to define your opponent (2-3 ads). What cash on hand advantage does Kehoe have to have over Ashcroft to make the race competitive, 3-5x?
· Furthermore, Kehoe’s past positions (gas tax, for example) will be easily exposed in a :30 sec spot to conservative voters.
· This isn’t to suggest that Ashcroft can’t lose, but he starts from a very strong position.
Greitens as Scharf’s Achilles Heel?
One reader thinks that Andrew Bailey has a simple electoral roadmap to turn aside the challenge from Will Scharf…
· Bailey needs to frame a 2-way primary very simply: it’s Mike Parson’s guy vs. Eric Greitens’ guy.
· Define the race like that from the start to give in-state donors nausea.
· Then run against the East Coast Greitens’ acolyte funded mostly by East Coast money – just like Greitens was!
Driving the Day
Recreational marijuana is legal as of today. Post-Dispatch: “Marijuana legalization in Missouri takes effect Thursday, capping a 50-year effort to end prohibition and allowing individuals to legally possess 3 ounces or less of marijuana flower.”
But…
· Missouri Independent says the expungement provisions “could be a procedural nightmare.”
· Emily Manley reports that Mizzou, citing federal law, will still prohibit pot on their campus.
Optimism For A Functional Senate
There are vibes of optimism as folks imagine next session. In particular there’s hope that the divisions which have vexed the upper chamber will dissipate...
· Reason number one: There’s no overwhelming nuclear-bomb issue like redistricting looming. Meanwhile, there are several bills concerning the regulation of transgendered athletes in sports pre-filed from different factions in the Senate. This suggests that a compromise solution can be found to that issue – which derailed several bills last session.
· Change in leadership: Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin brings a new energy as floor leader, and will be given the benefit of the doubt – at least initially. And Sen. Mike Bernskoetter isn’t a sore loser who is intent on avenging his leadership race loss.
· Finally: The addition of new members to the body should dilute some of the old grudges.
Blunt and Bond… Hawley and Schmitt
Retiring US Senator Roy Blunt gave his farewell speech in the Senate floor on Tuesday. You can watch it here. The speech was full of praise for pragmatism.
· “You don’t have to agree on everything to work together, you just have to agree on one thing. And if you find that one thing you agree on, particularly if you’re successful, both the members working together and their staff think ‘Well gee, we could do that again.’”
· “People who didn’t have to have a perfect result to have a result.”
· “If you only have one skill, that skill should be hiring.”
· What we do here is more important than who we are.”
Meanwhile over on the America’s Future website, Lane Koch wrote a nice essay talking about the lessons instilled by former US Senate Kit Bond. Read it here. Lesson #1… “Finding Common Ground.”
· Members across the aisle did not always agree, but in those days, they could put partisan differences aside enough to have dialogue and find common ground. They respected each other and in doing so to a greater extent respected the institution in which they served and the country as a whole. The result was far more wins for Missouri than the tribal, obstructionist approach that is sadly the reality of Congress today…
The concern among many politicos these days is that the brand of Missouri Republicanism characterized by Blunt and Bond is at odds with the current way of operating – and the loser will be Missourians.
ARPA $$$ to Rural MO
Springfield News Leader reports on the impact that ARPA funds may have across neglected pockets of rural Missouri. Read it here.
· Hayti Heights is hoping to drink its own water again soon.
· The city of about 500 residents, located in Missouri's Bootheel, for four years has been without a functioning water system…
· "The treatment plant, the well room, all that has to be replaced," said Catrina Robinson, mayor of Hayti Heights. "Cracks kept coming in, and as the cracks get bigger, birds were able to fly inside the treatment center and poop in the water."
· Missouri lawmakers drew up a plan earlier this year to distribute more than $2.7 billion in ARPA money throughout the state… In November, the state announced more than $410 million had been awarded to applicants for water infrastructure, paving the way for hundreds of renovations and improvements to drinking water, sewage, storm drainage and lead pipe systems…
· Hayti Heights was among them, the recipient of nearly $1.7 million to inspect, service and paint their water towers and, Robinson hopes, help get the city's own water system back online before the end of 2024.
Lobbyists Registrations
Caitlin Ung added American Civil Liberties Union – Missouri.
Erin Davis added Pear Therapeutics (US), Inc.
Jonathan Michael Hensley and Zach Pollock added GMES LLC.
Randy Scherr added Energy Transfer Partners L.P; and deleted Carol Jones, O’Reilly Auto Parts, and Family Advocacy-Missouri, Inc.
John Bardgett, Jacqueline Bardgett, and Chris Roepe deleted Missouri Automobile Dealers Association.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sarah Topp, Peter Herschend, Linda Rallo, John Brunner, Patrick Bonnot, and Don Soffer.