MOScout Daily Update: Greitens and Schmitt Trade China Attacks - Ashcroft and Others to Rally for 7-1 Map - MOScout First Look at House Battleground and more...

Greitens and Schmitt PACs Trade China Attacks

Six months out, and the attacks have started in the US Senate race.  The pro-Eric Greitens PAC, Team PAC, released an ad hitting Attorney General Eric Schmitt’s record as a state senator as being “good for China, bad for Missouri.”  See it here. 

The pro-Schmitt PAC, Save Missouri Values, quickly responded releasing its own ad, claiming that Greitens “can’t be trusted to be tough on China,” and ending with the same attack phrase: “good for China, bad for Missouri.” See it here.

At the very least the Save Missouri Values response muddies the attack, and will have Missouri voters confused about who exactly is good for China.

What It Means

·         These Super PACs will be big players in the next six months.  Both Greitens and Schmitt have raised millions for their PACs. 

·         The strategy might be to try to define their opposition before the crush of ads come in the last month of the campaign.

·         This is good news for the other candidates, particularly Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler who is raising good money and sitting in third place in the polls.

First Look: Battleground Districts

I took some time with the snow days and collected this First Look at the House battleground districts.  Find it here.

It’s my first attempt to collect information on the 27 House districts which appear most competitive based for the upcoming election cycle. 

It includes…

·         Map of district.

·         Historical voting index.

·         Demographic information.

·         Current incumbent.

·         Early forecast.

The early forecast is based on three factors: historic voting index, bias for incumbents, and a bias for Republicans (due to it being a midterm election with a Democrat being in the White House).

My early forecast has Republicans winning 15 of these 27 districts.  That give me an overall 2022 forecast starting with Dems +1 in the House.

Later this month, when candidate filing opens, we’ll have a better idea how some of these races are shaping up.  So while this report is a bit skeletal right now, but I expect to do periodic revisions and additions to this document as the cycle continues.

7-1 Rally Coming Monday

Some Conservative Caucus members and Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft are hosting a prayer walk and rally Monday for a “7-1” map.  Passing the new congressional map is at the top of next week’s agenda for the Senate.  One politico chuckled: A prayer walk to kick a Pastor out of Congress…

What It Means

·         It seems that the talk of moving away from a 7-1 map and toward a “strong 6-2” map hasn’t taken in all corners of the Senate Republican Caucus.

·         It looks to be a long week in the Senate, with the rifts between leadership and the Conservative Caucus not mending.

·         As I’ve written before, this is good news for Dems.  It’s more time being eaten away from the legislative session, and it’s perpetuating Republican infighing.

Lobbyists Registrations

Catalyst added yes. every kid., Inc.

Strategic Capitol Consulting added LJ Education Publishing Company, LLC.

Stephanie Eideberg and Malcolm Richards added Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

Daniela Sharfstein added Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and its subsidiaries, including Greenwich Biosciences, Inc.

Noel Torpey added Next Missouri, Lincoln Strategy Group, and Arevon Energy.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Danny Pfeifer and Heather Grote.