MOScout Daily Update: New Senate Map... Hummel in 4? - Free For All in 10? - Black in 12? - McCreery to Move - Brown Digs Into 26 and more...
New State Senate Maps
The judicial commission released its “tentative senate redistricting plan” yesterday. It will be formally filed with the secretary of state’s office today and become the new state senate map. Find the map here. There’s a lot to digest here…
The Big Picture
This map does not radically alter the make-up of the Senate. Boone County gets its own senator which means Dems will win that seat in 2024. And Senate 11 (JJ Rizzo’s district) will likely flip Republican in 2024 as well. It’ll be a wash, ironically involving the districts of the Republican floor leader and the Democratic minority leader.
Dems will be able to make a run at lean Republican districts as the decade proceeds and those areas trend Democratic: Senate 2 (Eigel, St. Charles), Senate 8 (Cierpiot, Lee’s Summit), Senate 15 (Koenig, St. Louis County), Senate 30 Springfield (Hough, Springfield). But one Republican consultant was unruffled. They’ve won close races over and over and feel these districts are holdable. Plus, they see Dems’ Senate 1 (Beck, St. Louis) and Senate 17 (Arthur, Clay) as contestable.
2022 Races
Senate 2 (Onder, St. Charles): The Conservative Caucus thinks the map helps their candidate, Rep. Nick Schoer, over Rep. John Wiemann. But my eyeballing of the district doesn’t make the map a knock out for either candidate. We’ll see…
Senate 4 (May, St. Louis City): The new Senate 4 eliminated parts of North St. Louis from the district and grabbed a bunch of St. Louis County. It’ll be a tough district for incumbent Karla May to win re-election. Rather it’s drawn very well for former Sen. Jake Hummel, should he decide to re-enter the political arena. Hummel is considering it. Another possible candidate would be Rep. Donna Baringer.
Senate 6 (Bernskoetter, Jefferson City): Scott Riedel, who has filed to run against Sen. Justin Brown, is now drawn into this district. So it’s possible he’d swap and primary Bernskoetter. We’ll see.
Senate 10 (Riddle, Mid-Mo): The district changed a lot but it doesn’t seem to have changed the players. Former Rep. Bryan Spencer’s old home of Wentzville is still in the district, though his new home in Warren County is not. He’s still in the race, as is Rep. Travis Fitzwater on the other end of the district. And in between, folks think that Rep. Jeff Porter will jump in, while others believe it’s perfect for Rep. Randy Pietzman. This could become a wild primary….
Senate 12 (Hegeman, NWMO): The map confirms that we’ll see Rep. Rusty Black enter this primary. He’s probably the new favorite, running against Rep. J Eggleston and Delus Johnson.
Senate 16 (Brown, Rolla): If Scott Riedel runs for Senate 6 instead (see above), it would make Rep. Suzie Pollock’s primary against Brown and one-on-one match-up, good news for her, though Brown is still considered the favorite.
Senate 24 (Schupp, St. Louis): The presumptive favorite, Rep. Tracy McCreery was drawn into Senate 14. Word is that she’ll be moving into the new Senate 24. And the new district is a good fit for her.
Senate 26 (Schatz, Franklin): The new map is bad news for Ben Brown as it drops the St. Louis County portion with Chesterfield and Wildwood, and instead extends far west into Mid-MO. But Brown is still in, his team is pivoting from the geographic terrain to the ideological landscape: “Brown was excited about his new senate district, contrary to what some may expect. He is going to occupy the conservative lane in what will be at least a three-way primary. Rural Republican voters are way more Trumpy/Conservative than St. Louis County Republicans...”
No great shakes from the map for these districts: Senate 8 (Cierpiot re-election), Senate 14 (Williams re-election), Senate 18 (O’Laughlin re-election), Senate 20 (Burlison for Congress), Senate 22 (Wieland termed), Senate 28 (Crawford re-election), Senate 30 (Hough re-election), Senate 32 (White re-election), Senate 34 (Luetkemeyer re-election).
A few early thoughts on the 2024 State Senate cycle…
Senate 15 (Koenig termed): The district moves west, becomes more Republican, but will still be competitive in the future. Speaker-elect Dean Plocher lives just outside the district, but we’ll see… he’d be a good fit.
Senate 21 (Hoskins termed): Rep. Dan Houx considered the early favorite to succeed Sen. Denny Hoskins instead finds himself in Brattin’s Senate 31. As a consequence, one early name for the new 21: Rep. Kurtis Gregory.
Senate 23 (Eigel termed): One lobbyist thinks the new district is “tailor-made” for Rep. Phil Christofanelli.
Senate 33 (Eslinger re-election): Taney County is now in Senate 33, and one politico speculated that we could see a right-side primary challenge (Rep. Brian Seitz of Branson) come at Eslinger in 2024.
Rex Goes Small
Rex Sinquefield, one of Missouri biggest political donors, has changed his political giving since breaking with Pelopidas in 2020. Sinquefield is now writing more checks, in smaller amounts. Not everything is small, of course. Last year he sent $250,000 checks to the PACs of Scott Fitzpatrick and Mike Kehoe. But those were the exception. He also made a number of smaller contributions, a rarity the year before.
Recipients of $2,400 checks or less…
· Sens. Jason Bean, Justin Brown, Mike Cierpiot, Karla Eslinger, Andrew Koenig, Bob Onder, and Caleb Rowden.
· Reps. Dirk Deaton, Bruce DeGroot, Chris Dodson Dinkins, Kurtis Gregory, Bill Hardwick, Doug Richey, Alex Riley, Cody Smith, and Curtis Trent.
Compare that to 2020 – when he was still working with Pelopidas – when there were only two checks under $3,000.
Meanwhile Humphreys
Another big Republican, David Humphreys, who hasn’t made political donations recently, is stepping up for Joplin police.
Joplin Globe reports… TAMKO Building Products challenged area businesses on Friday to support the Joplin police officers and their families following a shooting earlier this week.
Officer Ben Cooper was killed in the exchange and Officer Jake Reed is not expected to recover. Late Thursday, he was being kept alive for the purpose of organ donation. A third officer, Rick Hirshey, was shot in the face and was in serious but stable condition and faces the likelihood of multiple surgeries. TAMKO made a $25,000 donation and said it will match business donations to the Joplin Police Department up to a total of $25,000 through April 1…
Donations are recommended to be made through Joplin's Fraternal Order of Police and designated for the support of the wives and families of the officers….
Dough for Dogan
In the large contributions (below) Rep. Shamed Dogan’s PAC supporting his St. Louis County Executive bid reported receiving two big checks.
· $50,000 from Dave Steward II.
· $25,000 from Hoffmann Brothers.
And a tipster says, “other significant commitments set to arrive this quarter.”
Chinese Exploited USAHERDS Vulnerability
Wired reports… “the cybersecurity incident-response firm Mandiant revealed a long-running hacking campaign that breached at least six US state governments over the past year. Mandiant says the campaign, which it believes to have been the work of the notorious Chinese cyberespionage group APT41—also known as Barium, or as a part of the larger Chinese hacker group Winnti—used a vulnerability in USAHERDS to penetrate at least two of those targets. It may have hit many more, given that 18 states run USAHERDS on web servers, and any of those servers could have been commandeered by the hackers…
The web-based software known as the Animal Health Emergency Reporting Diagnostic System, or USAHERDS, serves as a helpful digital tool for state governments to track and trace animal diseases through populations of livestock. Now it's turned out to be a kind of infection vector of its own—in the hands of one of China's most prolific groups of hackers.”
· Missouri appears to use USAHERDS…
New Candidate Filings
Rene Vance filed to run in House 52 (Sedalia) as a Democrat. Republican incumbent Brad Pollitt is considered safe.
Bernadette Holzer filed to run in House 143 (Rolla) as a Democrat. This is a safe Republican seat.
$5K+ Contributions
Reform St Louis County Now (pro-Dogan) - $50,000 from David Steward.
Reform St Louis County Now - $25,000 from Hoffmann Brothers Heating & Air Conditioning Inc.
MBA Capitol Region PAC - $5,672 from Wood and Huston Bank.
MBA Gateway Region PAC - $5,244 from Midwest Regional Bank.
MBA Ozark Region PAC - $5,871 from Southwest Missouri Bank.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from Hub Inc.
MILA PAC - $5,400 from Tower Loan of Missouri, LLC.
Excelsior PAC - $40,000 from Cornerstone 1791.
Together KC - $10,000 from JE Dunn.
Lobbyists Registrations
Lisa McCabe added CTIA - The Wireless Association.
Trent Watson added Michael G Winter Consultants.
Tamitha Rene’ Ague added Right Directions.
Noah Bein added Justice Action Network.
Roxsen Koch added Somera Road Inc.; and deleted PLTR-SSP @ KCI, LLC.
Jonathan Dalton deleted St. Louis Public School District.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Jason Bean, Rep. Bennie Cook, Adam Gresham, and Gary McElyea.