MOScout Daily Update: Senate 4 Names - Riedel to Senate 6 - Riddle for Fitzwater? - Trafalgar Says Greitens Puts MO in Play and more...
Senate 4: Behind the Scene Jockeying
It sounds like there’s lots of behind the scenes jockeying at work in St. Louis City as politicos digest the radically altered Senate 4 district. The new district chops off North St. Louis and moves into St. Louis County.
Names mentioned as potential candidates: incumbent Sen. Karla May (obviously), former Sen. Jake Hummel, and Reps. Donna Baringer, Steve Butz and Peter Merideth.
There won’t be a 5-way free-for-all. In fact, I’ll be surprised if there’s more than two. But it might take some sharp elbows to get there.
Senate 6: Riedel In.
I had bad information yesterday, it ends up that Scott Riedel will run in Senate 6, creating a primary for Sen. Mike Bernskoetter. He filed in Senate 16, but was drawn into Senate 6.
That decision is likely cheered by the Conservative Caucus. Although Bernskoetter is presumably unassailable, it will keep him occupied. And more importantly, it gives Rep. Suzie Pollock a one-on-one match-up with incumbent Sen. Justin Brown.
I think Brown, with his very strong family name, prevails. But it widens the field for the CC as they try to find more candidates to bolster their caucus next year.
Senate 10: Luetkemeyer and Riddle for Fitzwater
Rep. Travis Fitzwater’s kick-off to run for Senate 10 will feature Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer and the incumbent state senator, Jeanie Riddle.
The kick-off is set for April 12.
MOScout News
I’m taking a long weekend as my Spring Break. Off tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday. I’ll see you Monday.
· Also, here’s a Reader Survey, if you’d be kind enough to zip through for me. Just 10 questions about what I’m doing right, what needs improvement etc. Be candid; be honest; better harsh than kind in this situation. Please add specifics when helpful. I’m looking for feedback. Thanks!
Trafalgar Poll Says Greitens Puts MO in Play
A poll from The Trafalgar Group shows that both Lucas Kunce and Scott Sifton run about even with Eric Greitens in a US Senate head-to-head. And they both trail Vicky Hartzler and Eric Schmitt substantially.
Trafalgar is followed by many Donald Trump supporters as they were one of the few firms to correctly predict Trump’s 2016 victory. (They were wrong in 2020 however).
· According to the poll demographics, they have Missouri at a +26 GOP – which seems off base.
Schmitt’s Expansive Sunshine
One MOScouter noted that Attorney General Eric Schmitt’s lawsuit earlier this week against the Missouri School Board Association, while scoring points with the base for “not backing down” on CRT, may have broader implications. “There are a lot of groups who need to be concerned about Schmitt’s suit against the school board association. If he succeeds, it would dramatically expand who is subject to the sunshine law. The other education groups, co-ops, Municipal League, Mo Assoc of Counties, etc. could all of sudden be covered.”
From AG’s press release: The Attorney General’s Office argues that the MSBA is subject to the Sunshine Law because: MSBA is a quasi-public governmental body under the Sunshine Law, MSBA’s corporate structure satisfies the definition of a quasi-public governmental body, MSBA’s primary purpose satisfies the definition of a quasi-public governmental body, MSBA performs a public function and thus satisfies the definition of quasi-public governmental body, MSBA’s funding comes almost entirely from public funds, MSBA provides training required by Missouri law, and Missouri law empowers MSBA with important public functions.
Garrison Joins MOFOP Community Membership Effort
Former US Attorney Tim Garrison has joined the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police’s effort to create a grassroots organization. MO FOP is offering “community membership” in its organization. Garrison is the new chairman of the effort. He recorded a video. See it here.
Today those same officers are under attack from activists and politicians that want to defund our police, depriving them of the life-saving equipment and resources they rely on to keep our families and neighborhoods safe. That’s why I’m proud to join the Fraternal Order of Police as chairman of their Community Member Team … This new project allows all Missourians to become part of the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police… and stand up for pro-law enforcement public policy…
Sabato’s Crystal Ball on MO Redistricting
Larry Sabato’s well-known Crystal Ball sums up the Missouri redistricting situation.
Missouri seems to be proof that just because a party can be maximally aggressive in redistricting doesn’t automatically mean that it will. In January, the state House passed a plan that essentially kept the state’s 6-2 Republican map intact…
However, conservative Republicans in the state Senate decried the plan as the “Pelosi map,” and charged that their party could be more aggressive. Though it would theoretically be possible to carve up MO-5, for a 7-1 GOP map, this would make some of the red seats less firm. Additionally, though it is possible to shore up MO-2 by turning it into a more rural seat, Wagner seems reluctant to relinquish much of her suburban St. Louis constituents… Later, another 6-2 map was floated -- as a concession to conservatives, it would have moved Wagner’s seat even further right by giving her all of Jefferson County (this suburban county used to be swingy, but now usually gives Republicans solid majorities)… though, there is pressure on legislators to pass a plan -- if talks break down again, it seems possible that courts could step in.
Crumbliss to DSS
Adam Crumbliss is now deputy director of the Department of Social Services. Crumbliss was previously at the Department of Health and Senior Services, and before that was the Chief Clerk of the House was a decade.
$5K+ Contributions
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $15,000 from David Kiersznowski.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $100,000 from Organic Remides MO Inc.
Legal Missouri 2022 - $10,000 from Show Me Organics Inc.
Lobbyists Registrations
Heath Clarkston, Doug Nelson, and Kurt Schaefer added Peak Performance; and deleted AIM Laboratories.
Marga Jean Hoelscher added University Health Truman Medical Centers.
Justin Arnold deleted The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Subsidiaries.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Joe Maxwell, Patrick Lynn, Pat Rowe Kerr, Earl Simms, Todd Smith and Tom Self.
Friday: Francis Slay.
Saturday: Mun Choi.