MOScout Weekender: Hallway Likes Hartzler But Schmitt Takes Lead in Poll - Candidate Filings - WWTW and more...
Onder’s Next Campaign
Sen. Bob Onder kicks off his St. Charles County Executive campaign this morning, 10AM at Arrowhead Building Supply.
Remington/MOScout Poll: US Senate
Survey conducted March 22 through March 23, 2022. 941 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2022Republican Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Possible candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for US Senate are: Eric Greitens, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Mark McCloskey, Dave Schatz, and Eric Schmitt. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Eric Greitens: 21%
Vicky Hartzler: 19%
Billy Long: 9%
Mark McCloskey: 5%
Dave Schatz: 3%
Eric Schmitt: 24%
Undecided: 19%
Q2: What do you think of the recent allegations against Eric Greitens of domestic abuse?
I don’t believe them: 23%
I find them troubling, but not disqualifying: 19%
I think they should disqualify him from running for senate: 32%
I am unaware of the allegations: 10%
Not sure: 16%
Q3: The candidates in the 2022 Republican Primary for State Auditor are David Gregory and Scott Fitzpatrick. If the election were held today for whom would you vote?
Scott Fitzpatrick: 17%
David Gregory: 12%
Undecided: 71%
Q4: What is the most important in determining your vote for state auditor?
I want someone who is honest and fair: 29%
I want someone with an accounting or auditing background: 27%
I want someone who is a strong conservative: 29%
Not sure: 15%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: US Senate
I asked lobbyists who they thought would be the Republican nominee for US Senate. The sentiment has shifted a bit toward Hartzler. See results from Feb 5 survey in parenthesis. 25 replies…
RESULTS
1. Eric Greitens… 28% (48%)
2. Vicky Hartzler… 56% (39%)
3. Billy Long… 0% (4%)
4. Mark McCloskey…0% (0%)
5. Dave Schatz… 8% (0%)
6. Eric Schmitt… 8% (9%)
Sample of Comments
· I’m sure the prevailing thought is going to be that these allegations hurt Greitens. I hope that is true but I just don’t see it hurting him much. His voters don’t put much weight into attacks from perceived opponents regardless of degree or credibility. Until and unless the crowd clears, Greitens is the favorite.
· If Hartzler plays this unfortunate but not surprising Greitens news right, the one woman could win.
· Greitens wins. Schmitt gets third.
· It hurts me to say it’s going to be disgraced former Governor who is a known abuser of woman and children, but I still think he wins.
· Looking forward to seeing how insane Republican primary voters can be when they once again nominate a candidate for high office who abuses women and children and is a pathological liar.
· [Hartzler] is building a rock star team and continues to snag key endorsements. Vicky is surging
· Hartzler is most likely if voters leave Greitens.
· Nothing keeps Greitens from winning. Nothing matters anymore.
· Out if all of them, Schatz would be the best senator. And that is a deeply sad fact about today's Republican Party.
· Will be close but my money is on Hartzler due to the rural vote.
· Sheena's filing has made it [Schmitt’s] best week on the campaign in a while.
Who Won the Week?
Andrew Koenig – Delivered the final compromise map on the Senate floor. It solidifies Koenig as the go-to bridge between the Conservative Caucus and the regulars. One lobbyist saying that Koenig “has thrust himself into the mix [of the floor leader’s race] if he wants it.”
Karla May – After being drawn a challenging new Senate 4 district, May has consolidated support, and looks like she may avoid a primary after all.
Team ABG – The filing from Eric Greitens’ ex-wife renews concerns that the former governor is truly unfit for a leadership position. The “Anybody But Greitens” coalition (which consists of as many Republicans as Democrats) called the filing shocking, but not surprising.
Billy Long – The whole of his US Senate campaign seems to hang of the hope that he can pull down a Trump endorsement. So this week’s missive from the former president praising Long boosted his otherwise small chances in the race.
Find a downloadable version here.
Candidate Filing
Ray Reed file to run in CD-2 as a Democrat, the third Democrat in that race to unseat Republican Congresswoman Ann Wagner.
As expected, Scott Riedel withdrew from Senate 16 and filed instead in Senate 6, creating a primary for Sen. Mike Bernskoetter.
Michael Baumli filed to run in Senate 12 a Democrat. This is a safe Republican district (Hegeman termed).
Tara Anura filed to run in Senate 16 as a Democrat. Another safe Republican district where Sen. Justin Brown faces a primary challenge from Rep. Suzie Pollock.
John Kiehne withdrew from running in House 88, and filed instead to run in Senate 26 as a Democrat.
Bill Allen withdrew from running in House 17 as a Libertarian, and filed instead as a Republican. He faces Democratic Rep. Mark Ellebracht.
Dakota Worrell filed to run in House 21 as a Republican. He’ll face Democratic Rep. Robert Sauls. This is a competitive district.
J.C. Crossley filed to run as a Republican in House 34. This is an open seat, competitive district.
Dan Moran filed to run in House 40 as a Republican, creating a primary for Rep. Chad Perkins.
Josh Thackston filed to run in House 110 as a Democrat. This is a safe Republican seat (DeGroot).
Swayne Loftis filed to run in House 132 as Republican. There’s now a GOP primary in this Springfield district where we’re expecting Minority Leader Crystal Quade to file to run for re-election.
$5K+ Contributions
MO State Teachers Assoc Legislative Impact Co - $7,500 from Central Region – MSTA.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays (Sunday) to Mike Leara, Mike Kelley, and Dave Stokes.