MOScout Daily Update: Ashcroft: No Need for New Maps This Year - Poll Makes Danforth Plan Look Unlikely - IE PAC Update and more...

Ashcroft Blasé About One-Person One-Vote

One the KWOS Morning Show with Austin Petersen and John Marsh (link from the peerless John Combest), Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft is ho-hum about the need to draw new congressional maps THIS YEAR.  Listen here.

“It’s a tempest in a teapot being worried about exactly when [redistricting] will happen. Redistricting is just a statute... We have a map right now. It’s the old map. We will use that use that… And whenever the legislature passes redistricting, we will act according to that law. And you know if they don’t pass it this year, they’ll pass it next year.  There’s court precedent for that.”

Everyone I talk to is dismissive of this notion that there wouldn’t be a legitimate challenge to retaining the old maps for another election cycle.  Using the old maps would run afoul the well-established principle of “one-person one-vote” as the change in populations means some folks’ vote would be “diluted.”

A few more thoughts that relate to this situation…

·         There’s a strong belief among many building denizens that the desire to put all of St. Charles in one congressional district is behind the “7-1” rallying cry.

·         One veteran observer lays out the case how the courts could potentially draw a map with St. Charles completely in CD-3.  “CD-1 is STL City + some STL County.  CD-2 is the rest of STL County + JeffCo.  CD-3 gets all of St. Charles…”

·         No one can predict the courts, but Dems have an incentive to let courts draw the map.  There’s a shot they’d get a 5-3 map (see above), and no chance they’d get a 7-1 map.  Their upside far exceeds their potential downside.

·         In this line of thinking, both Dems and St. Charles Firsters are quite content with the current stalemate, making a way out of the current mud pit even harder.

Driving the Day: Film Tax Credits

Assuming that the Senate doesn’t give another go at the congressional map – there were no rumors of a breakthrough over the weekend – Sen. Denny Hoskins’ Show MO Act (SB 732) is up for perfection.

Hoskins is following a seeming Senate tradition where conservatives who generally oppose “picking winners and losers” have no problem to give incentives to the film industry.  Fiscal hawk Jason Crowell used to sponsor this tax credit.

More on Latest MOScout Poll

A few thoughts on last weekend’s Remington/MOScout poll…

Is Missouri heading in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?

The response to the question was driven by partisanship.  Republicans generally think things are ok in Missouri (69% to 17%) while Dems think they’re headed the wrong way (22% to 68%).  I assume this is a reflection of newspaper headlines and social media posting about how government is acting since both are experiencing the same economy.

Thinking about the upcoming US Senate race, would you consider voting for someone other than the Republican or Democratic nominee?

I think this shows it’d be difficult for a third-party candidate to muster enough to break the grip of our two-party system.  Only 28% said they were open to the idea.  That number was larger for Dems (33%) than Republicans (16%) making a Danforth “center-right” path even more problematic.  This reinforce, for me, the idea that it must be a celebrity candidate to be successful.

How confident are you in the integrity of Missouri’s elections?

The numbers both overall and within each party are in the same vicinity as when I asked this question back in August, indicating that perceptions of election integrity in Missouri are solid.  80%+ Missourians (and in each party) are confident in Missouri’s elections.

IE PAC List Updated

Find the update list of Independent Expenditure PACs here.  Recently added…

·         KERI PAC – supporting Keri Ingle.

·         We Like Mike PAC – supporting Mike Person.

·         Missouri Conservative Alliance – supporting Nate Tate.

Independent expenditure PACs allow legislators to raise money in excess of the contribution limits that apply to candidate committees.  The legislators can raise money for the PACs, but can’t direct the spending.  That has to remain independent of the candidate. The formation of an IE PAC for state representatives usually signals that they’re looking at a leadership race or a state senate race down the road. 

AFP for Schmitt

Americans for Prosperity have been out canvassing for Attorney General Eric Schmitt according to an FEC filing.

eMailbag on Greitens’ Toughest Competition

I think Vicky [Hartzler] has much more upside potential (than Eric Schmitt).  She’s gone from like 6 to 17 in the last several month and is still not nearly as well know as Schmitt and has much more cash on-hand.

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Parson announced two judicial appointments…

·         Brett Hurst, of Fairfax, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for Atchison County in the 4th Judicial Circuit.

·         The Honorable Edward L. Page, of Festus, was appointed as Circuit Judge for Division 2 of the 23rd Judicial Circuit.

New Committees

Clay Dems Political Action Committee was formed.  Its treasurer is Adam Graves.

New Candidate Filings

Adam Richardson filed to run in House 15 (Gladstone) as a Republican.  This is a potentially competitive district.  Democrats have Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern as their candidate.

Eric Nowicki filed to run in House 65 (St. Peters) as a Democrat. This is a safe Republican seat.

Linda J. Luera-Sanchez withdrew from running for House 65 (as a Republican) and filed to run in House 106 (St. Charles) as a Republican.  This creates a three-way Republican primary in a swing district (the old Hannegan district).

Robert Falcone filed to run in House 111 (Cedar Hill) as a Republican. This creates a three-way Republican primary in a safe Republican district.

$5K+ Contributions

Affton Firefighters Action Committee to Elect - $6,384 from Professional Firefighters of Affton Association.

Lobbyists Registrations

Ryan Rowden added Americans for Fair Energy Prices.     

Dustin Backes added American Staffing Association.

Lucy Gonzalez added Students for Life Action.

Natalie Hampton added Missouri AfterSchool Network.

Thomas Robbins, Brittany Robbins, and Christopher Schoeman added US Canna Missouri LLC.

Brent Hemphill and Liz Henderson deleted Beta Bionics.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Rory Rowland, Rich AuBuchon, Frank Barnitz, Jeff Layman, and Benjamin Peters.