MOScout Daily Update: What Vance Means for MO - Perfect Storm in CD-2? - Carter Billboards - TBV on Roe and more...
The Day Ahead
Budget Conference Committee – 9AM. The House and Senate conferees will meet to hammer out the differences between their budgets. The deadline for both chambers to pass the budget is Friday.
House Redistricting Committee – Noon. It’s not clear what will be put forward at this hearing. Legislators met for a second time on Monday in Speaker Rob Vescovo’s office. But no consensus was achieved. There were four potential maps on display. One source said that Sen. Bill Eigel was “bellicose” in the meeting, reacting poorly to all the maps. I’m told doesn’t think any court drawn map would be much worse than what’s been offered.
Trivia Night Fundraiser for Ukraine. Another social event scheduled during these critical final days of session.
Perfect Storm in CD-2?
I’ve been skeptical that Democrats can compete against Congresswoman Ann Wagner this year. Having watched previous candidates raise oodles of money, work furiously hard and still come up short has made me immune to Democratic optimism. Additionally, in a redistricting year I assumed that Republicans would shore up CD-2.
But…
From all appearances, Republicans are going to fumble the redistricting process. So there’s no assurance that CD-2 will be any redder.
And…
The emergence of Roe v Wade being overturned would seem to aid Democratic enthusiasm, particularly among suburban voters.
So…
Maybe it’s one to watch now?
What Vance Means for MO?
Folks will probably be looking JD Vance’s win in a tight Republican primary last night in Ohio and considering what it means for Missouri’s US Senate primary.
Donald Trump’s endorsement of Vance is given credit for his victory. And though he only won with 32% of the vote, in Missouri’s primary a 30%-ish share of the votes will probably be enough to the Republican primary as well.
It’s been observed that Eric Greitens seems to have a “ceiling” on his polling, but a Trump nod could perhaps raise that ceiling.
· To my reading, Ohio’s results mean a Trump endorsement be the determining factor here. Three months until our Election Day…
Senate Advances Election Integrity
The Senate last night advanced their election integrity legislation (no ZuckerBucks, Voter ID) moving toward the fulfillment of one of their priorities. That puts HB 1878 in pretty good position to be TAFPed by the end of next week.
Senate 10: Carter Billboards Go Up
Team Carter says that they’ve “finalized the contracts and delivered the artwork on 15 Billboards in Lincoln, Callaway, Montgomery, Pike, Wentzville, and Foristell.”
Additionally, Mike Carter’s 4th mailer will be hitting mailboxes ahead of Mother’s Day weekend. See it here.
He’s clearly spending the money he put into the campaign…
Valentine Speaks on Roe
We got one of our first glimpses of Trudy Busch Valentine as a candidate yesterday, when she recorded a short video about Roe V Wade and posted it on Twitter. See it here. Her delivery is a little tentative.
It’s a damn shame that we’re seeing our country trying to overturn Roe v Wade. This abortion issue is a serious one between a woman and her doctor. A woman always has the right to choose and no politician can interfere with that.
No Bombshell Deposition
Last Wednesday on the Senate floor, Sen. Denny Hoskins had been filibustering against the sport betting bill for hours when he asked to inquire of Sen. Bill Eigel. Eigel had to be summoned to the chambers and emerged with a big notebook. Hoskins asked about the notebook.
Eigel: “I don’t know what’s in this notebook, senator. I was handed a book. It’s got a deposition in it. It’s got a deposition in it. So I don’t know. I haven’t read through this. But it’s a deposition. Let me see who’s this a deposition of… Hmmm… State of Missouri versus…”
At which point Sen. Dan Hegeman rises, “Mr. President would you put that bill on the informal calendar…”
Since then, there have been rumors about what’s in the deposition, “Is there some explosive material in there?”
I had a chance to skim through it last night, and can report it’s no great shakes. It has to do with a lawsuit around VLTs, but no one in the building was deposed and there’s no great revelations.
Carry on, folks…
Crystal Ball on MO Senate
Larry Sabato’s Center for Politics has an essay about how minority parties are competing in “one-party states” odds. Missouri gets a mention. Read it here.
In Missouri, the open-seat race to succeed GOP Sen. Roy Blunt has produced a Republican primary in which the candidates have rushed to align themselves with Trump. This state of affairs so worried former Republican Sen. John Danforth that he issued a public call for an independent centrist candidate. Initially it seemed like he found one — Thomas P. Schneider, the former mayor of Florissant. But Schneider eventually decided not to run, instead endorsing one Republican (state Senate President Pro-Tem Dave Schatz) and one Democrat (beer heiress Trudy Busch Valentine), declaring them both to be “pragmatic” candidates.
New Committees
Rocker P Brand PAC was formed. It’s a federal APC. See the paperwork here.
$5K+ Contributions
The Committee to Elect Noelle I. Cheeseman Judge - $12,120 from Noelle I Cheeseman.
Lobbyists Registrations
Andy Blunt and Jay Reichard added Securus Technologies, Inc.
David Winton and Jessica Petrie added eSystems, Inc.
Ashley Lawson added Parents Bill of Rights PAC, and deleted Husch Blackwell Strategies.
Matthew Block added Scientific Games LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jason Kander and Ryan Clearwater.
Condolences
To Randy Scheer on the passing of his father. See the obituary here.
Friends and family will be received on Wednesday, May 4, 2022 from 4:30 p.m. – 7:00 p.m. at Houser-Millard Funeral Directors (2613 West Main Street, Jefferson City) with Rosary service beginning at 4:00 p.m. Mass of Christian Burial will be on Thursday, May 5, 2022, 10:00 a.m. at St. Peter Catholic Church with Fr. Louis Nelen officiating.