MOScout Daily Update: Upset Watch in MOSen - Greitens Video - Butz Turnout - Bush Attack Lines on Roberts and more...
US Senate: Upset Watch
I’m officially calling an “upset watch” in Missouri’s US Senate race. The assumption remains that Republicans will hold this seat. After all Donald Trump carried it by 15 points two years ago. But we now have a plausible scenario for Dems to pull off an upset. The two main ingredients…
· Eric Greitens continues to lead the polls with six weeks until the primary. And he’s moving closer towards bonkers (see below) to alienate Missourians who would normally be solid Republican voters in November.
· Jack Danforth is moving forward with his plan to recruit a second Republican to run as an Independent in November. Post-Dispatch reports it’s John Wood, currently known in political circles as “John Who?”
Will it happen? Probably not. I expect a lot of movement in the polls as the airwaves fill with ads, and one Republican consultant tell me the Danforth-Wood plan is half-baked (“That dog won’t hunt.”).
Reminder: Watch Vs Warning
Greitens Over the Top
The Greitens campaign released a video touting “RINO hunting permits,” and showing Eric Greitens leading a crew of heavily armed “hunters?” breaking into a house as they “hunt?” a RINO.
Their press release called it an ad, but as others noted, it’s not an ad. It’s not the 30-second length for a TV ad; it has no paid for disclaimer on it.
I don’t think it’ll ever run on TV. It seems designed simply to thumb his nose at everyone clamoring for a return to normalcy in American politics.
Why it’s politically brilliant?
· The video generated free press greater than any ordinary ad could buy.
· Potentially tapped into far-right supporters across the country for small dollar donations.
· And of course, it works as a part of Greitens’ continuing mating call for an endorsement from Donald Trump.
Two Candidates, Two Pitches
38 seconds from Eric Greitens (see it here) versus 30 seconds from Dave Schatz (see it here).
· Hard Truth: One has 80,000 views; the other has 63. One’s at the top of the Republican primary polls right now, and the other is at the bottom.
Big Turnout for Butz
Rep. Steve Butz had a huge turnout at his canvassing event last weekend. He’s running full speed for his third term. This election may not even be close after all. Among the 150+ volunteers were plenty of politicos showing their support for Butz: former Mayors Lyda Krewson and Francis Slay, Sen. Karla May, Reps. Marlon Anderson, Gretchen Bangert, Donna Baringer, and Richard Brown, Collector of Revenue Greg Daly, City Assessor Mike Dauphin, Alderwoman Cara Spencer, and former Rep. Tom Villa.
Bush’s Possible Attack Lines?
One MOScouter forwarded me a survey apparently from Team Cori Bush. Among the many questions, it showed some possible attack lines they are contemplating using against Sen. Steve Roberts. The allegations of sexual assault are there as you’d expect. But it’s interesting to see they’re scrutinizing his campaign donors, including testing if tying him to lobbyist Steve Tilley is a vulnerability.
My gut is that while we all know Tilley around the building, he doesn’t have the name ID statewide to throw into an attack ad.
Roorda Money
Jeff Roorda, running a Republican in Senate 22 primary, added another $50K loan to his campaign. Last quarter his report showed $130K loaned to himself. So this ups his ante to $180K.
· And his PAC, Jeff PAC, reported a few checks: $10K from UFCW Local 655, and $5K from SLPOA.
Waiting on Budget Action
Folks are waiting on Governor Mike Parson to act on the budget. One source says “the rumor is he’s vetoing a lot of the pork and projects the Senate put in…”
But the assumption on the 3rd floor is that the line-item vetoes will come next week, “closer to July 4 long weekend to bury them” in the news.
We’ll see…
Life After PSC
Robert Kenney, former chair of the Missouri Public Service Commission, shares on LinkedIn that he’s “starting a new position as President, Xcel Energy -- Colorado at Xcel Energy!”
New Committees
Hahn ODaniel PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Leanne Dolan.
Solar PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Leanne Dolan.
Gladius PAC was formed. Its treasurer is William Williams.
RightDirection PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Rachel Reagan-Purschke.
Lobbyists Registrations
Davin Tate Althoff added Missouri Farm Bureau.
Trish McGill added Verizon Communications And Affiliated Companies.
Magdalena Rosengarten added Fortress Capital Formation.
Andrew Steven Crick added Andrew S. Crick.
Catherine Roehl added Alzheimer's Association Greater Missouri Chapter.
Daniel Haug terminated his registration.
$5K+ Contributions
Roorda For Senate - $50,000 from Jeff Roorda - Rev Trust.
JEFF PAC (pro-Roorda) - $10,000 from UFCW Local 655 Select Political Fund.
JEFF PAC - $5,001 from St. Louis Police Officers Association PAC.
1776 PAC (pro-Schroer) - $25,000 from MO Coalition for Video Lottery PAC.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Strong Garner Bauer.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $10,000 from Dollar Burns Becker & Hershewe LC.
MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC - $8,500 from Sanders Law.
MIC PAC - $10,000 from Allstate Insurance Company.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Mike Pridmore, Hank Thompson, and Jeff Shawan.