MOScout Daily Update: Anti-Greitens Ads - Carter Polling Memo - Coleman Eyes Pro-Life Amendment - Roorda Gets Labor - MOFarm Hearts Hartzler? and more...

Show Me Values Ads

The new ant-Eric Greitens PAC, Show Me Values has its TV ads up and running.  See the pair of ads here…

·       Scandal. “Scandals, felony charges, physical abuse allegations.  That’s not conservative, but it’s the real Eric Greitens.”

·       Praise. “While President Trump was getting tough on China, Eric Greitens was praising them.”

The ads don’t break any new ground.  These attack lines have already been explored by Greitens’ opponents.  But another $1M+ of ads could contribute to softening support for the former governor.

Only in MOScout: Carter Polling Memo

In Senate 10, Mike Carter’s camp has a polling memo that says he’s leading and will continue to grow his lead.  Read it here.

·       Mike Carter is the clear front runner in this race. The ballot test finds Carter leading significantly with 42% of the vote. He has significantly more ballot support than any of the other candidates, including Fitzwater (13%), Spencer (12%), Porter (10%), or Price (3%). In fact, Carter has more support than all of the other candidates combined…

·       Carter has room to grow his support by a significant margin. Following message testing about Mike Carter’s biography and his positions on key issues, a second, informed ballot finds voter support for Carter at 67%, a 15-point increase. This is a clear indication that if the Carter campaign continues its exceptional voter outreach efforts, then Carter will be well-positioned to win.

What It Means

Obviously, folks release polling memos because they show their campaigns in the best possible light.  But the quarter is ending this week, and if the July reports and the 8-Day Reports don’t show other campaigns marshaling the money to compete, this assessment may be dead on.

Farm Bureau Preps Hartzler Endorsement?

Tipster says that Missouri Farm Bureau PAC is holding its candidate interview today to make an endorsement in the U.S. Senate race.  “No surprise, the only Republican candidate participating in the endorsement meeting is Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler,” as there’s the sense that the endorsement is already in the bag for Hartzler.  That’s because her family owns a farm; and her former chief of staff, Eric Bohl, is now the Bureau’s Director of Public Affairs & Advocacy.

·       Missouri Farm Bureau’s official PAC website already boasts a photo of Hartzler on their main page. See it here.

MRL Talk: Why No MRL for Lovasco

I was curious how Rep. Tony Lovasco missed out on Missouri Right to Life endorsement in his re-election bid.  Lovasco was one of thirteen House Republicans who voted against the “clean” FRA.  That as MRL’s main litmus test this cycle.

Word is that Lovasco missed the deadline for returning their survey. And “they don't endorse without a survey, even if they like your voting record.”

Roorda Collects Labor Support

Jeff Roorda, running in Sensate 22 as a Republican, has a fundraiser this Thursday.  It’s at the Operating Engineers Local 148. And the invite hosts list has lots of labor bigwigs. 

On the host committee: Dave Cook, Mark Dalton, Brandon Flinn, Cory Hogan, Frank Jacobs, Keith Linderer, Tim Meadows, Tim Sappington, Jay Schroeder, D’arin Sprayberry, John Stiffler, Pat White, and Mark Woolbright.

Coleman Eyes Constitutional Amendment

Washington Post reports on the state battle fronts in the abortion fight.  Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman gets mentioned…

In Missouri, where abortion was banned almost immediately after the decision came down, state Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman (R) worries that the state Supreme Court may find protections for abortion in the Missouri Constitution, as other state courts across the country have done in recent years. On abortion-related issues, Coleman said, the state courts are out of step with the legislature, with a history of blocking legislation to defund Planned Parenthood facilities.

Right now, Coleman said, her priority is passing a constitutional amendment — by way of a statewide referendum — that makes clear there is no right to abortion in Missouri.

And

I should have included Coleman as one of the “trigger” law’s champions in last weekend’s Who Won the Week.  Here she was with Speaker Elijah Haahr, and Rep. Nick Schroer and others watching the Senate debate their far-reaching anti-abortion bill in 2019…

MO Abortion Decline or Shift?

In yesterday’s Sunday6, I noted that Missouri’s abortion rate had declined in recent years.  One reader remarks that it could be that the abortions have moved over to Illinois.

Minors and any other consenting woman need only to cross into Illinois to obtain an abortion – a state where there are no laws in place mandating any of the pre-procedure provisions. This means that while a woman may have to travel a little farther – she avoids the hassles the Missouri put in place.  And in the case where a woman is struggling with her decision – she won’t have any counseling or waiting time to consider the decision.

Any attempt to restrict travel will likely face legal challenges. Freedom of movement is a fundamental Constitutional right.

Reaction to MOScout Poll

·       Jeff Smith: The percentage of MO Republicans who believe the 2020 election was stolen has dropped from ~70% before the J6 hearings to 53% today.

·       Lobbyist: I have a hard time comprehending that 47% of R’s would vote for a candidate just because Trump endorses them. Whatever happened to making up your own mind? 

·       Greitens: A consulting firm to Eric Schmitt released a fake poll today heavily downplaying the influence of President Donald J. Trump in Missouri.  Remington Research, a subsidiary of Axiom Strategies, is pushing yet another fake poll that falsely favors their client. The Remington poll claims that 53% – a majority of Missouri Republican primary voters – would not care about a potential endorsement from President Trump. This was the same tactic they used in the Ohio Senate race. It did not work.

Lobbyists Registrations

Derek Leffert added Gateway Fiber.

$5K+ Contributions

Shield PAC LLC - $16,000 from American Auto Shield LLC.

MSCEW PAC Federal Cmte - $50,000 from IBEW PAC Voluntary Fund.

Page PAC (pro-Page) - $7,500 from Andrew Taylor.

JanePAC (pro-Dueker) - $10,000 from APTO Advisory LLC.

JanePAC - $10,000 from Andrew P Thome

JanePAC - $5,001 from Ridgehouse Capital.

JanePAC - $25,000 from Ann H Rafferty.

JanePAC - $10,000 from Richard L Tracy.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from AGC of MO PAC.

Kansas City Southern Employees PAC (Federal Committee) - $10,000 from Kansas City Southern Employees PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Ross Branson, May Scheve Reardon, and Bob Hilgemann.