MOScout Weekender: House Overview - Hallway on Senate Floor Race - Who Won the Week and more...
House Overview
The Senate side of the state legislative races is pretty straight-forward. The only competitive district will be Senate 24 where Sen. Jill Schupp is termed out. I’ll of course be following and polling that race over the next two and a half months.
The House side is a bit more complicated.
I went through the 163 districts and placed them each into a bucket to get a rough estimate of where things stand. Find my spreadsheet here. I will be incorporating this into the 2022 Watch spreadsheet – and making some changes as I go.
The basic lay of the land:
Uncontested Republican… 67
Safe Republican (shocked by an upset)… 35
Likely Safe Republican (surprised by an upset)… 5
Swing Districts - Tilt GOP… 6
Swing Districts - Tilt Dem… 9
Likely Safe Democratic… 3
Safe Democratic… 11
Uncontested Democratic… 27
This yields 113 Republicans and 50 Democrats, a +1 pick-up for Dems. But I would caution that this will change in the coming weeks. The “swing districts” are really better thought of as “toss-ups” right now. They are very fluid. I placed them into “tilts” because “toss-up” always feels a bit of a cop-out, like I’m scared to make a call. But some of the “tilts” will change as I dig in on the districts more.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: On Speaker Path
I asked lobbyists who they saw as the front-runner to become the next Senate Floor Leader. 22 replies…
RESULTS
1. Mike Bernskoetter… 59.1%
2. Andrew Koenig 13.6%
3. Cindy O’Laughlin… 13.6%
4. Name someone else… 13.6% (Two Sandy Crawford; one Holly Rehder)
Sample of Comments
· If Andrew is really running then I think Cindy would drop out.
· The caucus would benefit from a female in this role…
· Bernskoetter is really the only option that most of the Senate caucus trusts not to roll over for the obstructionists.
· Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a neutral language person who isn’t currently in the race. Maybe someone like Sandy Crawford?
· Iron Mike for the win!
· The traditional republicans will rally behind Bernskoetter.
· [O’Laughlin] becomes the compromise candidate after neither AK or MB can get to 13
· If it’s not Koenig, I have no idea what’s going on. Granted, I’m not a huge fan, but he’s earned the spot.
· [O’Laughlin] can bring both sides to the table.
· Rowden should save himself and cut a deal to allow someone like O'Laughlin or Koenig to be the Floor Leader.
· Cindy O if Koenig withdraws.
Who Won the Week?
Dean Plocher – Speaker-elected oversaw “mega $$$” raised at their summer caucus, plus landed a new job at Blitz, Bardgett & Deutsch.
Holly Rehder – Her newly published memoirs, Cinder Girl, were winning rave reviews.
Senate Dems – The very candid interview by Mike Cierpiot seemed to signal yet another escalation between he Senate GOP’s warring factions.
Legal 2022 – It was a close call in a couple of congressional districts, but ballot certification is pass/fail, and they passed. Now on to the November campaign…
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson appointed Warren Erdman and Brian Treece to the State Highways and Transportation Commission.
Other appointments announced…
· Kathy Swan was appointed to the Labor and Industrial Relations Commission.
· Gloria Clark Reno, and Roy Richter were appointed to the Public Defender Commission.
· Robin Wheeler Sanders was appointed to the Missouri Ethics Commission.
$5K+ Contributions
Jack PAC - $10,000 from Tegethoff Development, LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Aaron Baker, Edward Wildberger, and Tony Pousosa.
Sunday: Rep. David Griffith, Nancy Cross, John Loudon, Locke Thompson, and Doug Moore.