MOScout Weekender: House Overview - Hallway on Senate Floor Race - Who Won the Week and more...

House Overview

The Senate side of the state legislative races is pretty straight-forward.  The only competitive district will be Senate 24 where Sen. Jill Schupp is termed out.  I’ll of course be following and polling that race over the next two and a half months.

The House side is a bit more complicated.

I went through the 163 districts and placed them each into a bucket to get a rough estimate of where things stand.  Find my spreadsheet here.  I will be incorporating this into the 2022 Watch spreadsheet – and making some changes as I go.

The basic lay of the land:

Uncontested Republican… 67

Safe Republican (shocked by an upset)… 35

Likely Safe Republican (surprised by an upset)… 5

Swing Districts - Tilt GOP… 6

Swing Districts - Tilt Dem… 9

Likely Safe Democratic… 3

Safe Democratic… 11

Uncontested Democratic… 27

 

This yields 113 Republicans and 50 Democrats, a +1 pick-up for Dems.   But I would caution that this will change in the coming weeks.  The “swing districts” are really better thought of as “toss-ups” right now.  They are very fluid.  I placed them into “tilts” because “toss-up” always feels a bit of a cop-out, like I’m scared to make a call.   But some of the “tilts” will change as I dig in on the districts more.

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: On Speaker Path

I asked lobbyists who they saw as the front-runner to become the next Senate Floor Leader. 22 replies…

RESULTS

1. Mike Bernskoetter… 59.1%

2. Andrew Koenig 13.6%

3. Cindy O’Laughlin… 13.6%

4. Name someone else… 13.6% (Two Sandy Crawford; one Holly Rehder)

Sample of Comments

·       If Andrew is really running then I think Cindy would drop out.

·       The caucus would benefit from a female in this role…

·       Bernskoetter is really the only option that most of the Senate caucus trusts not to roll over for the obstructionists.

·       Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a neutral language person who isn’t currently in the race. Maybe someone like Sandy Crawford?

·       Iron Mike for the win!

·       The traditional republicans will rally behind Bernskoetter.

·       [O’Laughlin] becomes the compromise candidate after neither AK or MB can get to 13

·       If it’s not Koenig, I have no idea what’s going on. Granted, I’m not a huge fan, but he’s earned the spot.

·       [O’Laughlin] can bring both sides to the table.

·       Rowden should save himself and cut a deal to allow someone like O'Laughlin or Koenig to be the Floor Leader.

·       Cindy O if Koenig withdraws.

 

Who Won the Week?

Dean Plocher – Speaker-elected oversaw “mega $$$” raised at their summer caucus, plus landed a new job at Blitz, Bardgett & Deutsch.

Holly Rehder – Her newly published memoirs, Cinder Girl, were winning rave reviews.

Senate Dems – The very candid interview by Mike Cierpiot seemed to signal yet another escalation between he Senate GOP’s warring factions.

Legal 2022 – It was a close call in a couple of congressional districts, but ballot certification is pass/fail, and they passed.  Now on to the November campaign…

Find a downloadable version here.

 

Gubby Appts

Governor Mike Parson appointed Warren Erdman and Brian Treece to the State Highways and Transportation Commission.

Other appointments announced…

·       Kathy Swan was appointed to the Labor and Industrial Relations Commission.

·       Gloria Clark Reno, and Roy Richter were appointed to the Public Defender Commission.

·       Robin Wheeler Sanders was appointed to the Missouri Ethics Commission.

 

$5K+ Contributions

Jack PAC - $10,000 from Tegethoff Development, LLC.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Aaron Baker, Edward Wildberger, and Tony Pousosa.

Sunday: Rep. David Griffith, Nancy Cross, John Loudon, Locke Thompson, and Doug Moore.

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