MOScout Weekender: New House Battlegrounds Report - Hallway Splits on Floor Leader Race - Who Won the Week and more...
MOScout “House Battlegrounds” Report
Find the new MOScout “House Battleground” Report here. It’s a starter document that will be updated in a few weeks, and then again at the end of October, with more information and analysis.
There are 163 seats in the Missouri House. More than half (94) of these seats are uncontested. 67 Republicans do not face a challenger in November, and 27 Democrats likewise are uncontested. Most of the remaining 69 seats are not very competitive either. MOScout’s 2022 Watch page breaks down the districts according to the likely outcome of each race. This report covers the 14 districts which are most competitive. However, as the campaign proceeds, some of these will likely be categorized as “likely Republican” or “likely Democratic.”
This report will be updated in early September, and then again two weeks before the November elections, when the final forecasts will be made.
In this report…
House 12… Open seat – North KC/ Parkville
House 14… Ashley Aune incumbent – Kansas City
House 16… Chris Brown incumbent – Kansas City
House 17… Mark Ellebracht incumbent - Liberty
House 21… Robert Sauls incumbent - Independence
House 29… Open seat (Rowland to mayor) - Independence
House 34… Open seat (Roeber resigned) – Lees Summit
House 47… Open seat (Basye termed) - Columbia
House 92… Michael Burton incumbent – St. Louis County
House 96… Open seat (Gregory vacated) – St. Louis County
House 98… Open seat (Gunby running for Congress) – St. Louis County
House 105… Adam Schwadron incumbent – St. Charles
House 133… Open seat (Trent to Senate) - Springfield
House 135… Betsy Fogle incumbent – Springfield
Remington/MOScout Poll: Next Week Statewide Races
MOScout Weekly poll will return next week.
MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Floor Leader
My small focus group of lobbyists are almost exactly split when asked, “who is the front-runner to be the next House Floor Leader?” 21 replies…
RESULTS
1. Mike Haffner… 47.6%
2. Hannah Kelly… 0%
3. Jon Patterson… 52.3%
Sample of Comments
· The Plocher block rallies behind Haffner and pushes him to a thin victory
· Haffner would attempt to rule the House - not run the House.
· Kelly’s supporters don’t want Haffner, and will move to Patterson.
· But Patterson has more momentum. People worry that Haffner is too intense
· No super confident because it's a very close race.
· Patterson has a more stealth operation and his campaign is much less public. He is patient and has been playing the long game. This race seems to be tight and could certainly turn in favor of Haffner but Patterson has gained some momentum of late.
· The candidates who have spent their summer driving the state and meeting with colleagues are well positioned, and those two are Sen Koenig and Rep Patterson
· True toss up between Haffner and Patterson.
Who Won the Week? (Jobs Edition)
Josh Hurlbert – Lands a gig at the Herzog Tomorrow Foundation helping families get school scholarships.
Jason Norton - Re-launches his government relations and consulting firm, The Norton Company.
Zach Pollock and Jon Hensley – Form Versa Governmental Strategies, enter into a partnership with AT Government Stratgeies.
Josh Foster – Heads to St. Louis behemoth Enterprise after a decade in the building.
Jaclyn Schmitz – With Schupp facing term limits, Schmitz moves on to the Public Consulting Group.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Legal Missouri 2022 - $50,000 from New Growth Horizon LLC.
Gary Wiegert for State Representative - $50,000 from Gary Wiegert.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $75,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $75,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Missouri United - $75,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Trent Watson, Rose Windmiller, Stacey Newman, and Chuck Gross.
Sunday: Shane Schoeller, Sammy Panettiere, Katie Gamble, David Hageman, and Jim Cooper.