MOScout Daily Update: Quick Look at 2024 Senate Races - City to Sue Kia? - More on Senate 17 - More on STL County Exec and more...
Senate Spreadsheet
I put together a quick spreadsheet on the Senate races. Both for 2022, and 2024. Find it here. A few thoughts…
Not a lot to watch this November. Two Republicans are in swing district territories: Sen. Mike Cierpiot has +6% district, and Sen. Lincoln Hough has an even smaller +2% advantage. But there’s no indication that their opponents are putting together a robust campaign at this point. The Dems are circling their wagons to protect Senate 24 (Schupp termed). But it’s a healthy +12% district for them, and Rep. Tracy McCreery is out working the doors hard. That will help inoculate her against the coming attacks. I don’t see Dems losing that seat.
The 2024 state senate cycle will likely again be focused on the Republican primaries. Who knows what the state of the Republican civil war will be then, but assuming Jim Lembke & Co are itching for more “real Republicans”, that’s where the big fights will be. Incumbents who could find themselves as targets…
· Senate 3: Sen. Elaine Gannon won her 2020 primary with 42% of the vote in a three-way.
· Senate 33: Sen. Karla Eslinger prevailed with 37% in a three-way.
· Senate 27: Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder’s win over Kathy Swan came in at 50.2%.
All three are huge Republican districts where the action will be in August. Will the lead-up to 2024 see the same tactics employed with Republicans trying to corner their colleagues into “bad votes?”
More on Senate 17
I wrote yesterday about the positioning for 2024 state senate race in Senate 17, where Sen. Lauren Arthur is termed. Feedback I received…
· One reader notes that “Noel Shull, whose only tough race as a state rep was his first primary, ran for a new, open seat on the Clay County Commission. In the primary, he finished last out of five candidates with 11.5%. Rep. Maggie Nurrenbrern's father (Steve Wolcott) finished second with 23.5% and advanced to the general.”
· Rep. Wes Rogers says he won’t be running: “It’s not going to be me. My kids have soccer or gymnastics pretty much every night and our family business is doing great. I will be happy on the Kansas City City council for now but don’t count me out in 2032!”
More on STL County
I wrote about the snafu Republicans seem to be in with their odd-duck candidate for St. Louis County Executive. Here’s the feedback on that item…
· First, one reader points to the ‘sore loser’ statute and thinks it wouldn’t prevent Rep. Shamed Dogan from being nominated for the same party for which he ran. See it here. No person who files as a party candidate for nomination or election to an office shall, without withdrawing, file as another party's candidate or an independent candidate for nomination or election to the office for the same term.
· Another reader points out we’re still waiting on Katherine Pinner: “Technically the story about Pinner is that she told Renee Artman she's going to drop out. That is very different than Pinner actually dropping out. We will see what happens.”
· Finally, there’s an observer who thinks Mantovani is the GOP’s best chance… “You might want to keep an eye on Mark Mantovani as the GOP replacement candidate for St. Louis County Executive. He has high name ID from two previous runs, can self-fund, and has the ability to pull Democratic votes which is going to be required for anyone running on the GOP side to win that race.”
Not Who I Would Naturally Blame But….
St. Louis City is threatening to sue Kia and Hyundai because their cars are getting stolen. The “demand letter” makes it sound like the City is out of control. I’m not sure about the legal strategy, but this is terrible PR if you’re trying to attract new residents and new businesses.
Kia and Hyundai admittedly failed to install engine immobilizers in many of their vehicles, and
the respective failures have caused an epidemic of car thefts throughout the nation…
The St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department received reports of 356 thefts or attempted thefts of Kia or Hyundai vehicles from August 1 through August 13, 2022… The investigation and documentation of these vehicle thefts and recovery efforts are taxing City resources…
Worse still, stolen Kia and Hyundai vehicles are being used in the commission of violent crime
throughout the City. Just this month, a stolen Kia Optima and a stolen Hyundai Sonata were involved in a mid-day shootout near a busy intersection south of downtown, in which a 17-year-old was shot and a bullet entered an occupied apartment. A stolen Hyundai Elantra and stolen Kia Optima were involved in a shooting in which six other vehicles were shot and damaged on June 26, 2022…
In addition to violent crime, stolen Kia and Hyundai vehicles are involved in all manner of mayhem on City streets, including erratic driving and speeding. SLMPD detectives report that, in the majority of cases, when they stop occupants of stolen Kia and Hyundai vehicles at least one individual is armed…
Kia and Hyundai's defective vehicles have caused a public safety crisis in the City… Accordingly, with this letter, the City demands that Kia and Hyundai mitigate the defective
conditions providing thieves-including teenagers as young as thirteen - the instrumentalities by
which they are destroying property, endangering City drivers and themselves, and, in some cases, committing violent felonies.
If within 30 days, Kia and Hyundai fail to make satisfactory progress to mitigate the public
nuisance you have created, I will seek all legal remedies available to the City…
Party Registration Coming
Among the new statutes to take effect this week, one would allow folks to declare their party affiliation.
115.628… Local election authorities shall notify registered voters of the political party affiliation opportunities of this section using all current election mailings that would otherwise be mailed to registered voters prior to January 1, 2025. Beginning January 1, 2023, the voter registration application form shall be amended to include a choice of political party affiliation…
$5K+ Contributions
Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $10,000 from United HealthCare Svs Inc (Minneapolis MN)
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from Missourians for Effective Leadership PAC.
Citizens for Morris (running for Presiding Commissioner Christian County) - $9,200 from Lynn Morris.
Citizens for Morris - $8,000 from Lynn Morris.
Evergy Employee PowerPAC Missouri - $14,000 from Evergy Employee PowerPAC.
Jackson County Democratic Committee - $15,000 from Cleaver for Congress.
Committee to Re-Elect Harvey S Allen - $5,100 from Harvey Allen.
Lobbyist Registrations
Bay Scoggin added Innocence Project.
Shantel Dooling deleted Missouri State Medical Association.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays Lou Hamilton, Jason Hancock, and Stephen Gregali.