MOScout Daily Update: Lagging GDP - Cattlemen for Bailey - Budget Fears - Newest $1B Industry and more...
1 Big Thing: Lagging GDP
In a Request for Proposal (RFP) issued last week, the Department of Economic Development makes a stark assessment of the state’s economic shortcomings: “Missouri’s growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and productivity has been below the nation and Missouri’s Midwestern peers since 2010.”
The RFP is for “Industry Cluster Assessment.” See it here.
The hope is that it could provide a roadmap for higher growth. “While Missouri’s employment growth has kept up with its peers, lagging productivity growth could lead to slower wage growth for Missourians. Strong industry clusters are associated with more jobs, higher wages, increased productivity, and new business formation. Innovative strategies are needed to identify and bolster Missouri’s mature, emerging, and potential industry clusters.”
Why It Matters
Republicans have held control of the legislature for the last twenty years. This sober assessment should cause some self-reflection among Republicans about the extent to which their legislative actions are to blame for the lagging economic growth.
· Has the reliance on cutting taxes as the go-to economic policy paid off?
· Has the spotlight on culture wars made some businesses wary of relocating here?
· Has the hostility to the urban areas resulted in lost opportunities for higher wage industries?
· Has the devaluation of higher education and academia impacted the workforce?
Maybe the low growth isn’t the result of legislative failures, but the questions need to be asked and answered honestly for the state’s sake.
First in MOScout: Cattlemen Back Bailey
The Missouri Cattlemen's Association has voted to formally endorse Andrew Bailey for Attorney General. It’s the fourth big organizational endorsement for the Bailey campaign, following three law enforcement organizations: the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police, St. Louis Police Officers Association, and the Kansas City FOP.
· The cattlemen liked Bailey’s resistance to the Biden Administration’s WOTUS (Waters of the United States) rule.
House Budget Process
Post-Dispatch reports that “the House is launching its budget-writing task for next year more than a month earlier than usual.”
· Beginning Dec. 5, an appropriations subcommittee will launch the first hearing on agriculture, conservation, natural resources and economic development spending for the fiscal year beginning next July.
· Typically, those types of budget talks don’t get underway until lawmakers begin their annual session in January. And, it comes before Gov. Mike Parson has laid out his funding priorities in his State of the State speech held in mid-January.
· The early start is designed to help the House finalize its version of the spending blueprint earlier next year in order to allow time for more fruitful negotiations with their counterparts in the Senate.
What It Means
It would appear that House leadership is aware that the gravest threat to the next legislative session is the budget going off the rails.
I’ve written previously that I won’t be surprised to see hard right conservatives in the Senate (running for higher office) use the budget process to draw headlines.
Two years ago, the legislature – unable to pass the FRA tax to fund Medicaid – was forced into a special session. The FRA tax is due for renewal again this year. It could be a flashpoint again. But the broader budget could also be subject to a filibuster if conservatives decide to make a stand against the “bloated” state government.
Missouri’s Newest Billion-Dollar Industry
A year ago this week, Missouri voters passed marijuana legalization. The industry has bloomed in that short time…
· $1B Sales – Since recreational sales started on Feb. 3, Missouri has sold more than $1.1 billion in legal marijuana. More than 18,000 Missourians now work directly in the cannabis industry, with half of those jobs added in the past 12 months.
· Taxes – The medical and recreational programs have so far produced more than $10 million in taxes and fees to Missouri state government, with the Missouri Veterans Commission alone receiving nearly $40 million in funding. The taxes have also funded the automatic expungements of nearly 100,000 past, nonviolent marijuana records so far. Many local governments started receiving a 3% tax on local marijuana sales Oct. 1.
· New political force – The MoCannTrade PAC showed $263k cash on hand for their last quarterly report. In October alone, the PAC raised an additional $260k in large contributions.
Plocher’s Pick Makes KCStar Front Page
Speaker Dean Plocher’s hiring of Rod Jetton made the Kansas City Star front page yesterday with an unflattering headline. The obvious retort Team Plocher is that Republicans don’t read the Star. But there’s no doubt that the headline (and others) will show up in 2024 in mailers, or digital ad, or TV ads. Perhaps from other Republicans in the lieutenant governor’s race. Or more likely at this point from Democrats in swing districts pointing to Republican control of the statehouse.
ATGS’ New Website
Press release: AT Government Strategies LLC (ATGS), a subsidiary of Armstrong Teasdale LLP (AT), proudly announces that it has launched a new website to better service client needs. The site features a streamlined, accessible look and feel, expanded service pages, state and federal resources, and enhanced, user-friendly navigation. In addition, ATGS is launching their presence on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), which allows for real-time communications from governmental bodies to clients.
· ATGS’s Jeff City team: Jonathan Dalton, Sherry Doctorian, Shanon Hawk, Matt Kitzi, Cassandra Henderson, and Elizabeth Weber-Haynes.
Lobbyists Rally for Dunlap
Henrio Thelemaque, president of the Missouri Society of Government Consultants, writes in a note to members that the organization has made a contribution to Ian Dunlap’s GoFundMe (https://www.gofundme.com/f/love-for-the-dunlap-family).
· All of us who have had the chance to work or talk with Ian know that he walks through the building with a smile on his face, even on some of the toughest days in the building. His upbeat attitude can make most of us smile, especially when he talks about his children.
· From the outside, many may see our profession as a group that constantly fights for our respective causes. While we do argue policy issues, what is rarely shown is the camaraderie that exists within our profession. We can go from debating bill language to instantly laughing about our families or a funny interaction in the building. This underlying respect and unity is especially important when one of us experiences difficulties.
· In this spirit, the MSGC Board has just approved a donation of $1,500 to the GOFundMe established for Ian and his family. If possible, we also ask that individual members, firms, or groups try to donate to show support for Ian as well. Please continue to keep Ian and his family in your thoughts and prayers.
eMailbag on Lake City
The ban the guns has been a failure so this is a feeble attempt to ban the ammo. Won’t work, companies will just create their own factories as long as the market exist.
New Committees
Conservatives for Accountability PAC was formed. It’s a political action committee to support Jim Bowlin, Mayor of Wildwood. Bowlin is in a hot Republican primary in Senate 15. Its treasurer is John Brunner III. See the paperwork here.
$5K+ Contributions
Great Outdoors PAC - $16,800 from Green Four Ventures LLC.
Growth and Opportunity PAC - $25,000 from Hunter Engineering Company.
Nexus PAC - $15,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Lyda Krewson.