MOScout Daily Update: Ohio Abortion Watch - Voss Eyes Budget? - Dems Should Prep Senate 23 - Allen's Best Bet? and more...

Election Day Watch

Folks on both sides abortion issue will be watching the Ohio election results tonight.  One reason it’s important: politicos will tell you that voters default to No on ballot questions.  According to The Hill, “Ohio is the first red state where voters are being asked to affirmatively vote in favor of changing the laws to protect abortion, rather than voting against the status quo.”

·       The various pro-choice initiative petitions in the mix in Missouri (a red state) would require an affirmative vote as well.

Meanwhile

If the abortion issue is front and center in the Missouri 2024 election cycle, as many think it will be, Team Bailey will definitely have plenty to talk about.

Yesterday, Attorney General Andrew Bailey sued the FDA for “unlawfully approving the shipment of chemical abortion pills in the mail.”  See Fox News coverage here.

Political Chatter

Budget Forecast

Lobbyists, looking beyond next session, assume that Rep. Dirk Deaton will take over as House Budget Chair.  If Jim Moody is correct, it’ll be a tough two years of budgets by then as the cumulative impact of income tax cuts tempers state revenue growth. 

And those playing the long game see Rep. John Voss positioning himself to be the next vice-chair of Budget.  That would give him the gavel of that powerful committee in January 2027.  Voss’ pitch will be that the chairmanship should come to Southeast MO after being housed in Southwest MO (Deaton, Smith, Fitz, Flanigan) for so long. 

·       The immediate impact of Voss’ budget ambitions is that he’d forgo the Senate 27 race and stay in the House.

Dems Eye Senate 23?

One politico thinks that Democrats should plan for the best and hope for the best.  In this case, Rep. Adam Schnelting winning the Republican primary in Senate 23 would be best for Dems.  Schnelting’s hard right demeanor could put the lean Republican district into play – with the right Dem candidate. 

Rep. Phil Christofanelli is the clear front-runner among the hallway crowd.  He has a lot more money than Schnelting.  But running to the base, as Schnelting no doubt will, is a proven tactic to win primaries.  Schnelting’s Protect Our Children PAC sounds like he’ll be running on an anti-trans platform or something similar. 

Dems should be ready to take advantage of that possible upset.

Allen’s Best Bet

One Republican wishes that Rep. Bill Allen would pivot from his House re-election to take on Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern in Senate 17 (Arthur termed). 

Allen’s House 17 district is a Dem lean seat (Biden +5).  He squeaked out a win in 2022 against Rep. Mark Ellebracht with 50.2% of the vote. 

This Republican’s thinking: why fight for a hard re-election in the House when you could fight for a hard election in the Senate?  Same risk, better reward.

DED Drops $37M for Boeing

Since Boeing has announced their expansion ($1.8B investment, 500 jobs) in St. Louis County, they’ve been lining up incentives.

From the Department of Economic Development press release: To assist Boeing in its potential expansion, the Missouri Development Finance Board (MDFB) approved the use of the Business Use Incentives for Large-Scale Development (BUILD) Program. The company will also benefit from the Missouri Works Deal Closing Fund and Missouri One Start, the state’s premier workforce recruitment and training division.

Approved incentives amounts:

·       BUILD Program - $8,849,162

·       Missouri Works Deal Closing Fund - $20,375,491

·       Missouri One Start - $8,500,000

FYI: Boeing’s Jefferson City lobbyists are John Frederick (in-house), Kyna Iman, Michael Kelley, and Trent Watson.

MARF Becomes Starling

The trade association that represents providers serving Missourians with developmental disabilities has changed its name from MARF to Starling.

Starling helps people with disabilities flourish. Erika Leonard, former Bardgett & Associates lobbyist, leads Starling as CEO, with Bardgett and Associates handling Government Relations. The group continues facing a direct care workforce shortage and is typically found working with budget leaders to keep essential services at the forefront of the state budget.  Check out their new look at https://www.starlingmissouri.org/.

Panel for Eastern District Appeals

The Appellate Judicial Commission has submitted to its panel of nominees to fill the vacancy on   the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District. This vacancy exists due to the September 2023 appointment of Judge Kelly C. Broniec to the Supreme Court of Missouri.

The nominees are Virginia W. Lay, Rebeca M. Navarro-McKelvey and Susan M. Petersen.

Lobbyists Registrations

Maddie McMillan Green added Constellation Energy Generation, LLC.

Steven Tilley, Thomas Robbins, Brittany Hyatt Robbins, Christopher Schoeman, Alec Rosenblum, and Ron Berry added Rosenblum, Schwartz, Fry & Johnson.

Lily Elizabeth White added Columbia Chamber of Commerce.

$5K+ Contributions

CLCP PAC (pro-Haffner) - $10,000 from Missouri Soybean Association.

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $25,000 from Apex Oil Company, Inc.

PULSE PAC - $15,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Congressman Sam Graves, Jarad Falk, David Sater, and Doug Ervin.