MOScout Daily Update: Tax Revenues Slide - Smith in Senate 33? - Harris to MSTA - 18 Proposals to Change IPs and more....

November Revenues Slide

State tax receipts showed more weakness in November.  

Press release: State Budget Director Dan Haug announced today that net general revenue collections for November 2023 declined 1.2 percent compared to those for November 2022, from $1.01 billion last year to $1.00 billion this year.

Net general revenue collections for 2024 fiscal year-to-date decreased 2.2 percent compared to November 2022, from $5.15 billion last year to $5.04 billion this year.

What It Means

Together with the recent downward revision in the revised consensus revenue estimate, I expect more caution in the upcoming session on both sides of the budget ledger: new spending items as well as potential tax cuts or expansion of tax credits.

1 Big Thing: IP Back on Agenda

By my count, there are already 18 proposals to modify the initiative petition process.  They are all resolutions which would have to approved by Missouri voters.

·       9 senators – mostly, but not entirely, former Conservative Caucus members – have pre-filed proposals, most of which would make the process harder to complete.

·       9 state representatives – mostly, but not entirely Republican – have pre-filed similar proposals.

This means we’ll be spending some significant time next session debating this issue (again).  And the same dynamics are expected to be in play…

·       Pro-life legislators are anxious to enact changes before a possible pro-choice IP hits the ballot.

·       Interest groups wary of single party (Republican) control of the legislative process are fervent in their desire to keep the IP process as a viable alternative.

·       There’s an underlying calculus among supporters of change: how much change is necessary to accomplish their goals vs how much change voters will accept.

Federal Ban on Land Buys?

This Fox News article was getting passed around.  It’s about a letter from 17 Republican governors asking President Joe Biden to prevent foreign countries from buying American land.

Folks were wondering why Governor Mike Parson wasn’t a signee considering it’s been a hot-button issue here in Missouri recently.

·       The issue will likely get another rotation in next session’s playlist.

Harris to MSTA

Michael Harris announced on LinkedIn that he’s leaving the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education where he’s been the head government relations executive for the past four years.

Harris will be the new government relations manager for Missouri State Teachers Association, working with Matt Michelson. 

·       Mike Wood recently retired from MSTA after 20 years in the hallways for them.

Smith Considering Senate 33 Bid

With Sen. Karla Eslinger headed to the exit to be the new commissioner of education in June, it looks like Republicans will have a primary in Senate 33.  Rep. Travis Smith is said to be considering joining Rep. Brad Hudson in that race.  I’ve updated the MOScout 2024 Watch accordingly.

I’d said yesterday that Hudson was the front-runner, but that assumption is out the window if Smith enters. 

·       Smith represents a big chunk of the district already, including Taney and Stone County where a majority of the voters live.  He also has ties to Howell County.  In short, he’d be a formidable opponent for Hudson.

Shields’ Steady Hand at SBOE

One lobbyist thinks it’s worthwhile to note State Board of Education President Charlie Shields’ display of political acumen. “He filled Margie Vandeven’s spot quickly and with little fanfare.  There was no fake ‘national search’ only to name the person you wanted all along. It was a gutsy move, but the right move.”

Next Gold Rush?

Axios recently pointed to a JP Morgan analysis that says the market for obesity drugs could hit $100 billion by 2030 and, “should Medicare ultimately cover weight-loss drugs, that would take things to another order of magnitude.”

The current leader is Novo Nordisk which produces the weight-loss drug Wegovy.  Novo is repped in Jefferson City by Jeffrey Altmann.

·       But Axios says the field “is ripe for new entrants, as drugmakers struggle to keep up with demand.”

Lobbyist Registrations

Amy Blunt added Othram.

Will Marrs and Kelli Richardson added Ozarks Transportation Organization.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $20,000 from Ameren Missouri.

Independence Leadership PAC (pro-Sauls) - $15,000 from Missouri Drive Fund.

417 PAC (pro-Trent) - $7,600 from Hahn DeBoef PAC.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Missouri Health Plan Association PAC.

Catalyst PAC - $20,000 from Revenue Based Finance Coalition (Potomac Falls, VA).

BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $6,500 from T.R. Hughes Homes.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Sen. Ben Brown, Teresa Coyan, and Joe Bednar.