MOScout Weekender: Onder in for LG - Poll on Prefiles for Sales Tax, Discrimination, Guns and Abortion - Hallway Index - WWTW and more...
I’m sorry to say that Ian Dunlap passes away peacefully last night at 11:30. He was kind and honest soul. Here’s the GOFundMe for his family anyone who hasn’t had a chance to contribute.
Onder Makes It Official
Former Sen. Bob Onder announced on NewsTalkSTL yesterday that he was officially jumping into the lieutenant governor’s race. He joins Sen. Holly Thompson Rehder, Speaker Dean Plocher, as well as two lesser candidates (Tim Baker, and Paul Berry) in the Republican primary.
· With $500,000 in his campaign account, and another $500,000 in a PAC, Onder has a nice start on the money side.
· Additionally, he’s been a stalwart champion of pro-life issues and would seem the favorite for their endorsement.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Senate Pre-Files
Survey conducted December 7 through December 8, 2023. 644 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Missouri’s SB 777 would exempt food from state sales taxes. Do you support or oppose SB 777?
Support: 74%
Oppose: 12%
Not sure: 14%
Q2: Missouri’s SB 787 would prohibit discrimination based upon a person's sexual orientation or gender identity. Do you support or oppose SB 787?
Support: 55%
Oppose: 30%
Not sure: 15%
Q3: Missouri’s SB 790 would make it unlawful for a person under the age of 18 to knowingly possess a handgun. Do you support or oppose SB 790?
Support: 69%
Oppose: 23%
Not sure: 8%
Q4: Missouri’s SB 810 would prohibit any Medicaid provider from being affiliated or associated with any abortion facility. Do you support or oppose SB 810?
Support: 42%
Oppose: 41%
Not sure: 17%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Pro-Choice IP
I asked lobbyists, “Do you expect a pro-reproductive health initiative petition to pass in 2024?” 21 replies… (In parenthesis is the response from three months ago 9/9/23)
RESULTS
1. Very likely… 19% (0%)
2. Somewhat likely… 23.8% (47.7%)
3. Not sure… 9.5% (19%)
4. Somewhat unlikely… 28.6% (19%)
5. Very unlikely… 19% (14.3%)
Sample of Comments
· Unlikely that it will get the signatures in time.
· Yes. It will draw turnout for dems and regular, sane republicans will support.
· If a moderate proposal can get on the ballot it should pass. Getting signatures will be the biggest challenge.
· No money, no organization, no unity from the pro-choicers is a recipe for failure.
· Very likely if the choice advocates don’t overreach. They seem poised to overreach.
· If the entity’s involved can find a way to work together it will pass when presented to the voters.
· It won't even make the ballot.
· Unless they can come together its VERY late in the process and will be VERY expensive to catch up on lost time.
· If it doesn’t it will be the biggest miss for D’s in recent history. Ohio passes by 13 points and the pro-choice community is so arrogant they are making the perfect the enemy of the good. [It could] pass 70-30 and as a byproduct bring 5-7 additional D’s into the House and at least one extra D in the Senate while holding Rizzos district. No way they will do that because they are a bunch of arrogant elitist idiots…
Who Won the Week?
Democrats – Session looks like bust between a speaker facing an ethics investigation, and senate infighting already looming. Plus a new Republican push for “vetting” offers the prospect of ill-fitting candidates in swing districts.
Karla Eslinger – Commissioner of Education will be a capstone for a long career focused on improving education.
Charlie Shields – Led the State Board of Education to fill Margie Vandeven’s spot quickly and with little drama, eschewing the usual fake ‘national search’ when he saw the person who checked all the boxes right there in front of them.
Gabe Gore – Took quite a gamble to walk into the mess of the St. Louis Circuit Attorney’s office promising a clean-up. But he’s managed to bring back competence, and has no serious detractors as he ramps up for an election cycle.
Find a downloadable version here.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson announced judicial appointments…
· The Honorable Rebeca M. Navarro-McKelvey, of St. Charles, was appointed to the Missouri Court of Appeals, Eastern District.
· Myles A. Perry, of Kansas City, will be appointed as Circuit Judge for the 6th Judicial Circuit.
· Nicolette A. Klapp, of St. Louis, was appointed as Associate Circuit Judge for the 21st Judicial Circuit.
· The Honorable Matthew H. Hearne, of St. Louis, was appointed as Circuit Judge for the 21st Judicial Circuit.
$5K+ Contributions
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $25,000 from Robert G Brinkmann.
Kingdom Leadership PAC (pro-Fitzwater) - $10,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Rightpath PAC.
JB PAC (pro-Justin Brown) - $10,000 from Rightpath PAC.
Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $84,000 from RightCHOICE Managed Care, Inc. (Cincinnati, OH).
955 PAC - $5,267 from Construction & General Laborers Local 955 PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jeff Smith (the big 5-0), Heidi Geisbuhler Sutherland, and Blake Lawrence.