MOScout Daily Update: Dems Nail Down 2024 Senate Races - Quade Considers Future - Next Minority Leader? - Why HB 909 Matters - Shields Child Care Hearing and more...
Nurrenbern in Senate 17
Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern announced she’s running for Senate 17 in 2024. See her website here.
Press release: “I’m running for State Senate because as a mom of three, former local public school teacher and dedicated community volunteer, I have a renewed purpose to fight for great public education for every kid in our state, create more economic opportunity, finally expand access to affordable health care and keep our families safe. By working together, I know we can make the Northland an even better place to live and raise a family.”
· Team Nurrenbern rolled out some big key endorsements: Sen. Lauren Arthur, and former Reps. Jon Carpenter and Wes Rogers.
· And they announced that Audrey Danner was launching a PAC, Northland Forward, support Nurrenbern.
What It Means
· Dems are sewing up their battleground districts ahead of 2024. Sen. Doug Beck will run unopposed for re-election in the Dem primary for Senate 1; Stephen Webber is the consensus candidate in Senate 19; and now Nurrenbern is the consensus candidate in Senate 17. One Dem: “We’re actually being methodical and clearing these district by district!”
· This is a contrast to Senate 15 where Republicans have a hot primary brewing to replace Sen. Andrew Koenig.
· Dems hope to take their battleground districts off the table and exploit divisive GOP primaries in their swing districts. We’ll see…
Freshman Watch: Parker Perfection?
On the House’ Perfection Calendar possibly coming up today is HCS HBs 994, 52 & 984 sponsored by freshman Rep. Cameron Parker. Among its provisions: it would change the age (from 17 to 18) at which someone is considered an adult for orders of protection.
· Parker will be the first freshman to have a bill perfected in the House, a significant step towards passage.
· Also included in the bill is freshman Rep. Justin Hicks’ HB 984.
Quade’s Next Move
House Minority Leader Crystal Quade is contemplating a run for governor in 2024, but she hasn’t made any decision and most likely won’t do so until after session.
The Path
Most political observers have written off statewide Democratic candidates as Missouri has turned increasing red.
Democrats lost every statewide race in 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014, expect for Nicole Galloway’s win over Saundra McDowell for auditor in 2018. McDowell was considered a weak candidate. That, together with Claire McCaskill’s 2012 victory against Todd Akin who gaffed “legitimate rape” during an interview, has led to the conventional wisdom that Dems can only win against a “flawed” Republican candidate.
The Quade path to the governor’s mansion is a variation on this theme, requiring a combination of factors to create the environment for a Democratic win...
· Jay Ashcroft being the Republican nominee, saying some far-right stuff (like the anti-same sex marriage rhetoric I mentioned yesterday).
· A relatively moderate pro-choice initiative petition on the ballot (exemptions for rape plus protections for birth control).
Next Quade
House Dems whose names are being mentioned as possible successors to Quade as Minority Leader…
· Marlon Anderson
· Ashley Aune
· Jamie Johnson
· David Tyson Smith
Why HB 909 Matters
HB 909 – the landfill fight – was voted out of the House Local Government Committee yesterday. One politico explains why this is important to watch: “Anyone considering a statewide seat and wants to win Cass County should be in support of HB 909… Cass County is the Jefferson County of this side of the state”
Child Care Crisis
Rep. Brenda Shields presented HB 870 which would create three tax credit programs to help expand the child care industry in Missouri. These were mentioned in Governor Mike Parson’s State of the State speech.
The bills carry a big fiscal note of course because money is at the heart of the problem: workers aren’t paid enough, so there’s a worker shortage. But if they’re paid more, the price of child care becomes unaffordable.
· It’s not an industry you can scale: to care for more kids, you need more workers.
Read the Missouri Independent story here.
Another Worker Shortage Solution
Struggling with worker shortages like everyone else, two Republican governors (of Utah and Indiana) penned an op/ed (To solve our national immigration crisis, let states sponsor immigrants) in the Washington Post pointing to immigration as the answer. Read it here.
· Missouri has approximately 200,000 job openings.
Gubby Appts
Governor Mike Parson made the following appointments…
· Jerald L. Andrews, Democrat, Polk County, to the State Fair Commission,
· Rob Binney, Jackson County, to Missouri Workforce Development Board.
· Ronald L. Hack, Saint Louis County, as Chair of the Governor’s Council on Disability.
· Andy K. Hixson, Republican, Saint Louis County, to the Missouri Public Entity Risk Management Fund Board of Trustees.
· C.D. Stewart, Republican, as District One Commissioner of the Stoddard County Commission.
New Committees
Two newly formed PACs – Missouri Hemp PAC, and Crypto PAC – have the same treasurer, Jasper Logan, as well as the same address.
· Logan ran in the House 1 Republican primary last summer, placing fourth in the five-way race.
Lobbyists Registrations
Elizabeth Lauber and Jerry Hobbs added Missourians For Personal Safety.
Michael Jeffrey Kipping added TIAA.
Leonard “Magnus” Hughes added Strategic Workforce Development.
Michael Grote added Arrow Senior Living.
Andy Arnold added MO Coalition for Video Lottery, LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from Thompson Bales Company.
Missouri Agrees (Approval Voting campaign) - $10,000 from Steve Fox.
Electrical Workers Voluntary Political Education & Legislative Funds - Missouri - $5,351 from IBEW Local One.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Josh Hulbert.