MOScout Daily Update: Impact of Trans Compromise - Onder for LG? - Cody Cuts Hit Childcare - House Tax Cut and more...

1 Big Thing: Senate Watch

When the Senate passed the compromise on transgender issues early yesterday morning, it wasn’t just a nice win for Republicans on policy, it was also be a huge win for Republicans in terms of the landscape for the remaining legislative session.

For the Senate to put that issue behind them removed one of the key sources of tension within the Republican Caucus – regulars who approved of the policy but didn’t view the issue as urgently as the former Conservative Caucus folks (FCCF).

There was, however, split opinion in the hallways yesterday.  Lobbyists are still wait-and-see on the final months of session.

·       Would the action make the FCCF feel listened to, seen and appreciated, bringing some relative peace to the sometimes testy intra-Republican relations?

·       Or would it embolden them to make more demands?

We’ll see….

Onder for LG?

A couple lobbyists yesterday told me that former Sen. Bob Onder, rumored to be considering a 2024 run, is looking more specifically at lieutenant governor.  I’ve updated the 2024 Watch accordingly.  A few thoughts…

·       This sets up potential statewide Republican primaries between regulars and FCCF: Hoskins and Rowden in SOS race, Rehder and Onder in LG.

·       In addition to his Republican opponents, Onder would also likely face third-party antagonists.  For example, WashU’s RightPath PAC still has $1.5M sitting in its coffers.

House Perfects Huge Tax Cut

The House perfected HB 816, a billion-dollar tax cut.  The vote was not close, 109 Ayes. 

One lobbyist thought the huge margin spoke to the composition of House Republicans now.  “They came here to cut taxes and damn it, that’s what they’re going to do.” 

·       But in the truth, many House GOPers probably understand they’re not enacting law, they’re making an opening bid to the Senate. 

·       A tax cut of some kind seems likely given the pile of cash in the state treasury.  But the final number won’t be ten digits.

What It Means

Regardless where we end up, Speaker Dean Plocher can run in 2024 on having passed a ginormous tax cut for Missourians.

Cody Cuts

The House Budget Committee will mark-up the budget bills on Thursday.  That puts the timeline with the full House taking up the budget next week, and handing it off to the Senate.  The constitutional deadline to pass the budget is May 5, six weeks from Friday.

Yesterday, Budget Chair Cody Smith walked the committee through his recommendations. One of the big shockers was deep cuts to the proposed early childhood initiatives.  Smith zeroed out the $56 million for pre-kindergarten expansion, and the $78 million for childcare subsidies. 

·       One lobbyist: Pretty big blow especially on Child Advocacy Day.

·       But it’s also a big blow for Governor Mike Parson who made these investments the centerpiece of his State of the State address.

And

The other item sure to garner attention: “State Aid to Public Libraries zeroed - ($4,504,001).”  Smith said because the libraries were suing to overturn last years’ SB 775 dealing with explicit material in libraries, he didn’t want any state money going to aid their fight.

Criminalizing Abortion

Jamie Corley, in an op/ed in MOIndy yesterday (see it here), asks whether “women can be held criminally liable for abortion care.” 

Unlike in Texas, where it’s clear the law does not apply to a pregnant female on whom an abortion is performed, induced or attempted, Missouri law states pregnant women “shall not be prosecuted for a conspiracy to violate” the law. Women in Missouri are protected against conspiracy but not direct penalty. The authors of this law were perhaps only concerned with surgical abortion… what then protects a woman who self-administers abortion medication?  When the college sophomore induces her own abortion in her dorm room on Missouri land, she is arguably engaging in an arrestable offense, punishable by years in prison. How will the attorney general respond when her roommate reports her to the authorities?

·       National pro-life organizations have stated unequivocally that they “do not support any measure seeking to criminalize or punish women.”  But that’s not necessarily the case in Missouri right now. 

·       Elad Gross, Democratic candidate for attorney general, tweeted that the current law does allow the AG to prosecute self-induced abortions.

Sass for BNSF

Politico reports that “BNSF Railway, one of the country’s largest freight railroads, has brought on the longtime aide to one of the top lawmakers with oversight of the rail industry as Congress debates imposing new safety regulations on the sector. Cassidy & Associates’ Paul Sass began lobbying for the railroad at the beginning of this month, according to a disclosure filed Monday.  Before leaving the Hill last summer, Sass had worked for two decades for Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.), the new chair of the powerful House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, serving as Graves’ chief of staff before moving over to become the top GOP staffer on the committee for the last three years…”

Lobbyists Registrations

Ryan DeBoef added Advocates for a Healthy Community.

Jeff Smith added The Sunrise Project.

Noel Torpey added Sheriff’s Retirement System.

Jomy Joseph added Sanofi US.               

Steven Carroll added Safer St. Louis, LLC.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Beverage PAC - $5,223 from Pepsi Beverages Company of St. Louis.

Home Builders Assoc of Greater KC-PAC - $9,505 from National Assoc of Home Builders.

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $25,000 from BMJC Management LLC.

American Dream PAC - $5,650 from Beau Reinberg.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Bill Harwick, Nancy Giddens, David Jackson, Steve Hunter, Paul LeVota, and Will Kraus.