MOScout Daily Update: Budget Outlook - IP Reform Ahead? - Hurlbert in Senate 17 - Gregory in Senate 21 - Busch for Bailey and more...

1 Big Thing: Budget Week in the House

The House is expected to work through the budget bills on Tuesday.  The budget has become a flashpoint between the House and the governor’s office.  One insider saying, “The governor is furious with [Speaker Dean Plocher and Budget Chair Cody Smith] for taking all his money for his proposals out…”

Missouri Independent explains that during mark-up, the Smith “made hundreds of cuts to Parson’s plan, from small items like $3,045 for operations in the state Office of Budget and Planning to $859 million earmarked for widening portions of Interstate 70. As a result, the budget heading to the House floor would spend about $1.5 billion less general revenue, and $2.6 billion less overall, than the budget proposed by Parson.”

I’ve heard two scenarios in the halls about how the budget process with unfold.  They’re very similar.

The first is that the Senate will put back a lot of what the House has taken out and when the two go to conference, there will be House members who liked some of those line items and will defect.  Together with united Senate conferees, the House will “get rolled.”

The other is the same, but that the governor’s office will lean on some House members who, together with united Senate conferees, will carry the day.

We’ll see….

Driving the Day: IP Reform Moving

HJR 43, the House version of initiative petition reform, is expected to be voted out of the Senate Fiscal Oversight Committee today (1:30PM, Senate Lounge).

It would require a 60% threshold for constitutional amendments.  Democrats and some special interests aren’t thrilled with it.

A Remington/MOScout poll from February asked about the issue and found Missourians divided.

Q1: Currently it takes a simple majority of Missouri voters to amend the state constitution.  One proposal would change that to require 60% approval. Do you Support or oppose this proposal?

Support: 43%

Oppose: 38%

No opinion: 19%

However, the House version also includes a provision some think is a disingenuous effort to tip the scales in their direction…

For purposes of this article, only citizens of the United States of America who are residents of the State of Missouri and who are properly registered to vote in the State of Missouri shall be considered legal voters.

The ballot language puts that provision first: Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:  Allow only citizens of the United States to qualify as legal voters…

Who would object to that?  Thinking maybe that’s not the case now, would it entice voters to approve the 60% threshold as well?

This will, no doubt, be the subject of debate on the Senate floor.

Victor Hulbert for Senate 17

Victor Hurlbert is planning to run for Senate 17, where Sen. Lauren Arthur is termed.  Hulbert is the Republican auditor of Clay County.

·       Democrats have coalesced behind Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern.

·       Hurlbert’s campaign committee boasts former Rep. Bob Nance as its treasurer.

·       Former Republican Rep. Noel Shull also has formed a committee to run for Senate 17.

·       The district leans Democratic, but isn’t a gimme.  President Joe Biden beat Donald Trump 52% - 47% in 2020 (if you’re the sort of person who believes election results).

And Senate 21

There’s been talk ever since redistricting about Rep. Kurtis Gregory as a natural fit for Senate 21, where Sen. Denny Hoskins is termed.   I just noticed that Gregory amended his campaign committee earlier this month to say that he is, in fact, running for that seat.

Eigel Touts Trans Issue

As the Senate prepared to vote on SB 49, regulating transgender care, Sen. Bill Eigel rose and delivered a passionate speech. 

That speech is now in rotation as one of Eigel’s Facebook ads as he attempts to build name ID ahead of a 2024 gubernatorial run.  See it here.

·       It’s an apt reminder of the obvious that the Senate, in addition to a floor to hammer out laws, is also a stage for the coming 2024 election cycle.  Beyond the usual state senate races, Sens. Eigel, Caleb Rowden, Denny Hoskins are seeking statewide office, with Sens. Holly Rehder and Lincoln Hough rumored to be eyeing bids as well.

And

One MOScouter at the St. Charles Lincoln Days event tells me that Eigel “went after” Jay Ashcroft “hardcore,” in his remarks.  Dinging Ashcroft for selling farmland to China and “another remark about making a political career out of his father’s name.”  All while Ashcroft was there in the room.  The gloves are off!

Busch for Bailey

In the large contributions (below), August Busch III sent $50K to the pro-Andrew Bailey PAC, Liberty and Justice PAC.

·       This Friday is the quarterly fundraising deadline.

·       It’ll be interesting to see if the “usual” Missouri mega-donors (Sinquefield, Herzog Cos, Steward) line up behind the governor’s man, or sit on the sidelines.

Arnold Passes

J. Burleigh Arnold, passed away last week.   He’s the father of Andy Arnold.  Read his obituary here.

Following law school graduation, Mr. Arnold was drafted into the Army and served as a second lieutenant in the U.S. Army Judge Advocate General's Corps. He then returned to Missouri in 1957, served as a magistrate judge until joining then-Missouri Attorney General John Dalton's staff as an Assistant Attorney General, and next as then-Missouri Governor Dalton's Chief of Staff from 1960 to 1962.

Mr. Arnold left public service and joined Central Bank, where he worked for the next 25 years, serving as Trust Officer and later as Senior Vice President. During that time, he was active in Missouri and national Democratic politics, serving as a member of the Democratic National Committee from 1978 to 1988. He served on the boards of a variety of educational institutions and charitable organizations and was devoted to many civic organizations in Missouri.

eMailbag on Schnelting’s Attacks on Christofanelli

[Rep. Adam] Schnelting points out that [Rep. Phil] Christofanelli is out of step with Republican priorities on protecting children and he becomes a bigot. Cancel Culture much?

Lobbyists Registrations

Steven Tilley, Thomas Robbins, Brittany Hyatt Robbins, and Christopher Schoeman added Tier One Tactical Solutions, LLC.           

Scott Swain added Gateway Alliance Against Human Trafficking, and Primary Marking System, Inc.

Eapen Thampy added Neptune Resources.

Paul Watkins added Heritage Action for America.

$5K+ Contributions

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $50,000 from August A Busch III.

MSCEW PAC Federal Cmte - $25,000 from IBEW PAC VOLUNTARY FUND (Washington DC)

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Mike Leara, Mike Kelley, and Dave Stokes.