MOScout Daily Update: What's Next for Sports Betting - Pro-Choice Rift on IPs - Ashcroft Announces - Treece Resigns and more...
Ashcroft Announcement
Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft announced today that he’s running for governor. This is not a surprise; it’s been the working assumption of everyone in Missouri politics.
Despite his political dynasty last name, he’s running as an outsider.
· From his announcement, he’s running against the establishment: “Missouri Republicans, who control every statewide office and have supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature, have failed to deliver. I’m running to change that.”
· His website highlights his pre-political career in politics: Jay Ashcroft is an engineer, not a politician. His slogan is “Engineering a Stronger Missouri.”
He starts as the front runner.
· His announcement notes that a MOScout poll two months ago places him in the lead over rivals LG Mike Kehoe and Sen. Bill Eigel.
Maybe we’ll see more fire in his fundraising now?
· Ashcroft’s fundraising has been underwhelming while Kehoe has been pushing hard for both money and endorsements.
· The January report of their PACs showed Kehoe’s raised over $1 million while Ashcroft’s didn’t raise a dollar. In the large contributions, this quarter, Kehoe’s PAC has raised over $300K, and Ashcroft’s only $12K.
1 Big Thing: The Pro-Choice Split
Politico reports on pro-choice advocates in Missouri who are unhappy with the pro-choice IPs that have been filed so far. The apparent split between incrementalists and ideologues (my labels which probably neither side approve of) threatens to undermine any loosening of the current restrictions, but also hurt Democratic chances to use the issue to bolster their 2024 campaigns.
Pull quotes…
· “We would never advocate for a false or politically determined limit on abortion,” said Pamela Merritt, the Missouri-based executive director of Medical Students for Choice. “Viability is an arbitrary line. It’s a legacy of Roe that we don’t need to resurrect. And we know the language of viability can be manipulated by state legislatures, just as they are already trying to redefine what a child is or what rape is.”
· “We have long said that Roe was never enough, especially for marginalized communities shouldering the hardest impact of abortion bans,” said Vanessa Wellbery, the vice president of policy and advocacy for Planned Parenthood of the St. Louis Region and Southwest Missouri.
· Groups defending the viability limit argue that it is widely supported by voters and has the best chance of passing in conservative and swing states. “Yes, Roe was always the floor. But right now Missouri is in the basement,” said Mallory Schwarz, executive director of Pro-Choice Missouri. “It’s not the end game. It’s the first step in a long term effort and process.”
Senate Sports Betting Impasse Remains
The Senate debated sports betting for hours yesterday, and was seemingly making progress as various amendments were added. But they failed once more to solve the central knot of their situation: the entanglement of video lottery terminals with sports betting.
Sen. Nick Schroer offered the VLT expansion language, a limit of 3 terminals to any location. That proposal failed by an 11-20 vote. This debate has defied the normal partisan boundaries.
YEAS: Brown (26th Dist.), Carter, Coleman, Eigel, Hoskins, Koenig, May, Rizzo, Schroer, Trent, and Williams.
NAYS: Arthur, Bean, Beck, Bernskoetter, Black, Brown (16th Dist.), Crawford, Eslinger, Fitzwater, Gannon, Hough, Luetkemeyer, McCreery, Mosley, O'Laughlin, Razer, Roberts, Rowden, Thompson, Rehder, and Washington.
Absent: Brattin, Cierpiot, and Moon.
The bill was then laid over as Sen. Denny Hoskins, the leader of the VLT tied to sports betting approach, offered a new amendment, perpetuating the debate.
What’s Next
While there seems to be near unanimous support for sports betting and a strong desire to “get it done” this year, it’s hard to see the way forward.
VLT lobbyists must now see that if there’s only 11 votes, even with sports betting as a strong incentive for a Yes vote, there just aren’t the votes in the body for their legislation. This strategy hasn’t worked, but they don’t have a better path. To get them to drop this approach, someone has to show them a viable alternative.
Casinos have made it clear that they see VLT expansion as devastating to their slot machine revenues and argue it’d be codifying an unfair playing field.
· Is there a lesser version of VLT expansion that would win casinos’ approval and that VLTs, now in a weakened position, would accept?
· Do sports betting advocates throw their hands up and wait until Hoskins is termed out and hope that a “son of Hoskins” doesn’t emerge to take his place in the 2025 session?
STL Police Takeover Effort
Post-Dispatch reports on a renewed push for the state to takeover the St. Louis police force. Read it here.
A lobbyist for the union that represents St. Louis police officers says election night victories for progressive candidates in the city bolster the case for a state takeover of the St. Louis Police Department. “Clearly the progressive movement won last night,” Jane Dueker, who represents the St. Louis Police Officers Association, told members of the Senate Transportation, Infrastructure and Public Safety Committee on Wednesday.
And
In the lobbyist registrations (below), Safer St. Louis, which is lobbying to have the state takeover, added Rodney Hubbard to their ranks. He joins Richard AuBuchon, Amy Blunt, Steve Carroll, Tony Dugger, Andy Foley, Jim Foley, Chris Liese, Jay Reichard, Ginger Steinmetz, and Scott Swain in the push.
Treece Resigns From Commission
Columbia Tribune reports that “former Columbia Mayor Brian Treece resigned from the Missouri Highways and Transportation Commission last week.” Read it here.
· Treece was appointed to the commission by Gov. Mike Parson last August and sworn in just seven months ago, in September 2022. The six-member commission is split evenly between Republican and Democratic members. Treece is a Democrat.
· “It was an honor to volunteer on the commission for the last eight months. However, as I continued to serve, I became concerned about the appearance of a potential conflict between my company’s customers, subsidiaries and competitors and my role as a commissioner. In the interests of good government, I felt I should resign to avoid any perception of bias that could undermine public confidence in the great work of the Department and its employees.”
Blunt Joins Husch
Husch Blackwell Strategies announced that former US Senator Roy Blunt is coming on board. Read it here.
· Husch Blackwell Strategies welcomes U.S. Senator Roy Blunt to the firm’s Washington, DC office where he will lead a new Leadership Strategies Advisory Services group that includes his longtime Senate Chief of Staff Stacy McBride and Deputy Chief of Staff Richard Eddings. The team will provide policy advice, evaluate a client’s government risk as well as ensure clients receive insightful support to navigate Washington toward positive outcomes. Senator Blunt will serve as Chairman of the group.
· HBS Leadership Strategies addresses a gap in federal government consulting – the growing need for a comprehensive whole-of-government advisory service that is tailored to the needs of a specific organization and not limited to a specific set of issues or expertise.
Murray for House 78
With Rep. Rahseen Aldridge’s victory Tuesday, Marty Joe Murray Jr. announced he’ll seek Aldridge’s vacated seat.
· See his website and bio here.
· It won’t surprise me if Governor Mike Parson leaves this seat vacant until the 2024 elections.
New Committees
· Randy Minchew formed a campaign committee to run for Senate 19 as a Republican. Minchew ran for mayor of Columbia last year, placing second (with 39% of the vote) in a three-way race.
· Former Rep. Nate Tate formed a campaign committee to run for statewide office in 2026 as a Republican. The only statewide office up for election that year is Auditor, where Republican Scott Fitzpatrick will be the incumbent. Tate ran for Senate 26 last year, placing third (with 26% of the vote) in a five-way Republican primary.
Lobbyists Registrations
Thomas Trabue added Columbia Board of Realtors, and Columbia Apartment Association.
Rodney Hubbard added Safer St. Louis LLC.
Ashley Lawson added Hahn DeBoef LLC.
Kandice Sanaie deleted Cigna Corporate Services LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
MBA Capitol Region PAC - $9,665 from Hawthorn Bank.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Rep. Lane Roberts, Mark Jones, Craig Overfelt, Cathy Brown, and John McCaherty.
MOScout Schedule
Long weekend alert. No MOScout this weekend – or Monday.