MOScout Daily Update: Watching State Revenues - Roldan Schmitt Ruling - Page Vetoes and more...

1 Big Thing: Revenue Watch

Tomorrow starts the final month of the state’s fiscal year.  As of a few days ago, state tax receipts for the month of May were off by double digits (12%-ish).  This follows a similar decline in April’s numbers when tax receipts fell 14%.

·       Budget Director Dan Haug had mentioned he anticipated a decline during the budget briefing in January, citing extraordinary revenues capital gains in 2022 which were impossible to repeat in 2023.

·       Budget watcher Jim Moody has warned of a “permanent revenue plateau” based on the various tax cuts implemented by the state legislature over the years.

But things aren’t catastrophic…

The consensus revenue target for this fiscal year ($13.1 billion) isn’t unreasonable.  And next year’s revenue target (on which the budget was based) is clearly achievable as it’s basically flat ($13.2 billion).

·       The American economy has been surprisingly resilient to raising rates.

However…

It’s important to note that while inflation will provide a tailwind to state tax receipts, it also will make the state’s purchases more expensive.

·       With inflation running at 5%, flat revenue growth will pinch the budget.

The Confidence Game

I’ve written before that Attorney General Andrew Bailey’s great advantage is incumbency.  As he tries to fend off a primary challenge from Will Scharf, Bailey has the ability to generate headlines in the course of doing his job.

That free press over the course of the next year will be worth millions.

We saw this dynamic at work in Eric Schmitt’s campaign to become US Senator.  While the other candidates were speechifying, Schmitt was quick to file lawsuits which were dutifully reported by the press.  Others grumbled about Anthony Fauci, Schmitt was able to depose him.  And while many of the lawsuits withered in the court, and the hours with Fauci were fruitless (“His daughter worked at Twitter!”), the free press was golden.

Last week Judge Marco Roldan issued a ruling on one of the Schmitt era actions – targeting school board on COVID measures. 

Roldan is unequivocal that Schmitt was playing a game, ignoring the larger consequences of his actions.

Read the ruling here.

The Attorney General did not identify statutes or constitutional provisions to support his order, resting his directive instead on a judgment in another case to which no school district was a party, and whose rationale did not apply to the School District. The Attorney General then amplified his orders on social media, encouraging parents and students to defy the authority granted to the Board of Education by Missouri law. Parents and students followed the Attorney General’s lead, leading to even greater confusion than the pandemic had already caused. Aside from lacking any authority over locally elected boards of education, the Attorney General’s orders did not follow Missouri law and were therefore without legal force or effect.

The assumption is that Bailey will play this same game with the hot-button issues of the day. One hardly expects political leaders to act apolitically.  But the larger cost is real: an erosion of the public confidence that those charged with upholding the law are playing it straight.

Page Vetoes Tobacco Bill

St. Louis Business Journal reports on vetoes by St. Louis County Executive Sam Page.  Read it here.  One of the bills would have extended businesses grandfathered into selling tobacco products – even when ownership changes.

Rep. Brad Christ sponsored legislation (HB 1039) at the state level to do this.  It limped out of Rules on a 5-4 vote and was left for dead at the end of session.

Help Wanted

Empower Missouri seek Policy Director. “Empower Missouri’s Policy Director provides broad oversight and leadership of the organization’s policy agenda and our pursuit to address poverty through policy across Missouri. This position directly supervises a team of 4-6 policy team members, along with our contract lobbyists. Working with this team, the Policy Director sets ambitious policy goals with our Affordable Housing, Food Security, and Community Justice Coalitions and oversees our work on those goals in Jefferson City. This position requires solid management skills, strong critical thinking capabilities, and a strong desire to foster bipartisan

relationships with legislators and partners committed to ending poverty in Missouri.”  See the ad here.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $15,000 from MACO Development Company, LLC.

Lobbyists Registrations

Hannah Beers Sutton added Cass County.

Doug Stone added Raven Resources Corp, and deleted PI Granby LLC.

Bradley Ketcher deleted Rockwood Management Corporation.

Jay Reichard deleted Safer St. Louis, LLC.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Joan Barry and Ethan Todd.