MOScout Weekender: Riley Vows to End Personal Feuds - Poll on Trump Indictment - Who Won the Week and more...
Riley Formally Announces for Floor Leader
In a letter sent to colleagues, Rep. Alex Riley formally announces his bid to be the next House Floor Leader, saying he wants to move the Republican Caucus past personality conflicts.
· Since taking the majority twenty years ago, we have accomplished a lot as a Republican caucus. Unfortunately, in recent years, personality conflicts, rather than policy differences, have started to slow our momentum and inhibit our ability to pass into law the big transformational things that our constituents deserve and that will move our state forward…
· One of my goals a Floor Leader will be to focus on our shared policy objectives rather than getting bogged down in personality conflicts…
Riley faces Rep. Jamie Burger in the Floor Leader race.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Trump Indictment
Survey conducted June 12 through June 13, 2023. 940 likely 2024 November Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 November Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.1% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.
Q1: From what you have heard about the indictment of Donald Trump, which best describes your reaction?
Donald Trump is the target of a political attack: 47%
No one is above the law: 44%
Not sure: 9%
Q2: If Donald Trump is found guilty, would that you more or less likely to vote for Trump, or would it make no difference?
It would make me more likely to vote for Trump: 27%
It would make me less likely to vote for Trump: 36%
It would make no difference: 31%
Not sure: 7%
Q3: How would you rate Donald Trump?
Trump was one of America’s greatest presidents: 42%
Trump was one of America’s worst presidents: 41%
Trump was an average president: 11%
Not sure: 6%
Q4: Possible candidates in the 2024 General Election for President of the United States are Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Donald Trump: 52%
Joe Biden: 38%
Undecided: 10%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Trump Impact in MO
I asked lobbyists, “Would it be a net positive or net negative for Missouri Republicans if Donald Trump is the presidential nominee in 2024?” 21 replies…
RESULTS
1. Net positive for MO GOP… 23.8%
2. Net negative for MO GOP… 57.1%
3. Inconsequential… 19%
Sample of Comments
· It makes no difference for the statewide races, but it would favor Democrats in the swing suburban legislative races.
· Trump on the ballot will drive up margins in rural areas, but also drive opposition in the suburbs. Will have little impact on statewide candidates, but expect losses for GOP in state legislature.
· MO voters seem to embrace the MAGA rhetoric.
· But not enough to make a difference.
· He's a net negative everywhere because a) his brand is irreparably damaged with swing voters and b) if he doesn't get the nomination, the odds of him actually supporting whoever beats him are infinitesimal.
· Republican nominee will carry Missouri. National money will not be coming to Missouri. Won't happen.
· [Net negative for MO GOP] They would probably lose their suburban seats where all the money is
· Wish we lived in a different world but it would be a net positive for GOP turnout
· [Net negative for MO GOP] Senate 17 is only in play for GOP if Trump is NOT the nominee.
· The Trump surge in turnout is real. Ask Roy Blunt and Eric Greitens. Trump could shoot someone in the middle of 5th avenue and still have the same intensity among supporters. When the readers of this site finally understand that, they will understand today's politics.
Who Won the Week?
Will Scharf – With Donald Trump increasingly moving back into the center ring of the political 2024 landscape, Scharf finds a way to insert himself into the indictment debate – and catches Trump’s attention.
Lucas Kunce – Facing a serious challenge to US Senate bid from fellow Democrat Wesley Bell, Kunce had a good first week with the AFL-CIO’s “re-endorsement,” and the revelation that Bell’s campaign is still sitting on the launching pad.
Senate Dems – The American Conservative Union issued their ratings of Missouri legislators. And one Republican says it’s “100% certain these scores will be used to setup primaries and extend the Republican internal struggle.” That’s good news for the Dems who depend on Republican in-fighting to impede the GOP agenda.
Michelle Hataway – Tapped to take over the Department of Economic Development.
Find a downloadable version here.
NYT on Branson
New York Times reports on Branson Missouri’s “two-wheeled fix for the commuter blues.”
· Much of the affordable housing in the tourist town is far from its famous entertainment strip. One solution: motor scooters offered for no money down.
· By some estimates, close to 20 percent of the people living in Branson are homeless or staying in motels. They are workers and drifters, service industry strivers and worn-down honky-tonkers, some struggling with addiction, some raising children under trying circumstances.
· Branson… a place that Homer Simpson once described (at least according to Bart) as “like Vegas, if it were run by Ned Flanders.”
Hataway Heads DED
Governor Mike Parson announced that Michelle Hataway will serve as Acting Director of the Missouri Department of Economic Development (DED) following Maggie Kost's departure. Hataway's appointment is effective immediately.
eMailbag on Scharf and Trump
· Trump's state of mind was unclear? Really? Did you read the indictment? Like, the part where he's showing someone war plans and telling them not to come too close because of how sensitive the info is? How about the part where he concedes that he didn't declassify the docs while he was president? Or maybe the part where he obstructs justice by lying to his own attorneys so that they falsely represent to the government that all docs have been returned?... All of that said, congrats to Scharf for achieving exactly what he hoped to achieve with that thread.
· My initial reaction to the Scharf tweet was WTF is a candidate doing spending that time tweeting but you are right if it gets Trump's attention it could be gold. Pandering to Trump is a terrible long-term strategy for Republicans as a group but usually helps individual candidates. Also, the tweet is an outlier because it is a good defense of Trump. But if folks honestly care this / are open minded… Scharf is likely wrong.
$5K+ Contributions
American Promise PAC (pro-Malek) - $50,000 from Techsys, LLC.
Nexus PAC - $10,000 from Paric Holdings, Inc.
Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Thomas Strong.
Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $8,948 from International Brotherhood of Teamters Missouri PAC- Federal Committee.
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $50,000 from MOVE Action.
Teamsters Local Union No 688 Political Action Committee - $7,363 from International Brotherhood of Teamters Missouri PAC- Federal Committee.
Northland Strong PAC - $10,000 from KCFOP Political Action Committee.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Sen. Lincoln Hough, Rep. Michael O'Donnell, Sam Licklider, and Barbara Fraser.
Sunday: Rep. Jay Mosley, and Tim Garrison.
Monday: Angela Bingaman, Mark Dalton, and Brian Nieves.