MOScout Daily Update: Next Session Already Doomed? - Quade Kick-Off - May for Senate and more...

1 Big Thing: Hot Button Issues Here to Stay

The next legislative session is still six months away, but it’s increasingly clear that it will likely again be dominated by hot-button cultural issues.

·       Some legislators will push to eliminate the compromise sunset provision on last year’s transgender bills.

·       The recent Supreme Court rulings have added fuel to the desire of some conservatives to address cultural issues… The affirmative action ruling, for example,  may bring a whole new raft of fronts.  Attorney General Andrew Bailey already fired a warning shot at Higher Ed: “Institutions in Missouri must implement the Supreme Court’s decisions immediately.”

·       Flash-point pop up seemingly out of nowhere.  Senate Majority Leader Cindy O’Laughlin on all-gender restrooms in KCI: Why would Kansas City put these in? Pushing this on people like my grandchildren. For gosh sakes, keep your personal life personal and respect others' privacy. This infuriates me.

Add to the mix, the election-year positioning where folks (on both sides of the aisle) seeking higher office want their base to know they’re “fighters.”   We’re staring at more gridlock, and less compromise.

Getting legislation to the governor’s desk will depend on two difficult undertakings…

·       The ability of the Senate to address hot-button concerns early with workable compromises.

·       The ability of the House to accept that you can’t force-feed the Senate, and instead be willing to accept compromises that emerge from that chamber.

Any reasonable observer of Missouri politics would have to be very optimistic to see those two conditions being met.

Driving the Day: Quade for Governor

Minority Leader Crystal Quade will kick-off her gubernatorial bid today at an event in Springfield.

Yesterday she released an introductory video.  See it here.

The video shows a very clear path being charted by Team Quade…

Targeting Ashcroft: They’re assuming Jay Ashcroft emerges from the GOP primary.  That’s who they want to run against.  They think he’ll be too far right for some Missourians.  And, for a self-made woman, he’s the perfect populist foil as the son of a senator. He’s mentioned in the introductory video, not Kehoe or Eigel.

Make Rural In-roads: The video includes nods to rural Missouri: “We found hope on a gravel road.”  One of the two issues it highlights as cornerstones of the campaign is foreign ownership of farm land.

Dobbs Backlash: The video talks about “restoring our abortion rights.”  It’s interesting to use the divisive A-word rather than the gentler “reproductive rights,” but Quade is clearly comfortable contrasting her position with Ashcroft on the issue.

·       One longtime Republican texted me after watching the video: I’ll vote for her if the matchup is Quade vs Ashcroft.

May for Senate

And then there were three… Sen. Karla May says she’s running for US Senate. She joins Lucas Kunce and Wesley Bell vying for the chance to take on Republican incumbent Josh Hawley.

May made the announcement at the Mound City Bar Association Annal Scholarship Dinner.

She’s term-limited, and while Dems are still seeking candidates in a couple statewide races, May apparently has felt called to the US Senate race.

What It Means

Do any of these Democrats have a legitimate shot at unseating Senator Josh Hawley?  It hard to imagine in solid red Missouri. 

But May entry is bad news for Bell: a second African American candidate from the St. Louis region before the Bell campaign has even started moving.

·       Kunce welcomes May into the race (see it here).

Meanwhile

Team Kunce cheers a quote from Chuck Schumer in The Nation: “Lucas Kunce is a good candidate, and we can beat Josh Hawley.”

eMailbag

·       On Vivek Malek: Don't sleep on the fact that one of the presidential candidates (currently polling third in one national poll behind only Trump and DeSantis!) is also named Vivek and will reduce some of the unfamiliarity of that name.

·       On Schmitt “winning the week:” Schmitt won the week? Are you kidding me?  Team Bailey took every one of those lawsuits across the finish line!.. Schmitt’s a great dude, but Bailey brought home the goods at SCOTUS and in the 5th circuit. 

·       On House 17: Shirley Mata has worked harder for KC area Dems and labor than anyone.  Her race will be get a full-court press from Dem politicos and labor, unlike Ellebracht whom folks took for granted would win.  And Allen hasn't done anything to appeal to swing voters whom he needs again to win.  This will be a race to watch.

Lobbyists Registrations

Ian Escalante added Young Americans for Liberty Inc.     

Irl Scissors added Powerhouse Community Development Corporation.

Dustin Backes deleted Pear Therapeutics (US), Inc.

Ryan Rowden deleted My Missouri.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Russ Carnahan and Cole McNary.