MOScout Weekender: Eigel Preps Announcement - Poll on Dem Statewides - Hallway on GOP AG - WWTW and more...
Eigel Preps Formal Announcement
Sen. Bill Eigel revealed some details from his July fundraising quarter and said a formal announcement was coming as his campaign moves from “exploratory” phase to a full-blown gubernatorial campaign.
On Twitter he said the campaign again recorded huge numbers of individual donors…
· 21,000 individual donors.
· $800,000 raised during the campaign across all committees, with $1 million cash on-hand.
“The purpose of the exploratory phase of this campaign was to see if sufficient support existed for our message of a stronger Missouri. The answer is a resounding yes…”
Meanwhile
St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, running for US Senate, filed his finance report. While he only had a month to raise money, the total was underwhelming – again hinting that his campaign launched without being quite ready. He raised $162,472, and ended with $135,380 cash on-hand.
· For comparison, his primary rival Lucas Kunce, hasn’t flied yet but pre-announced $1.2 million raised during the last quarter.
Remington/MOScout Poll: Dem Statewide
Survey conducted July 12 through July 13, 2023. 661 likely 2024 Democratic Primary voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2024 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.9% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Possible candidates in the Democratic Primary for Senator are Wesley Bell, Lucas Kunce, and Karla May. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Wesley Bell: 24%
Lucas Kunce: 31%
Karla May: 10%
Undecided: 35%
Q2: Possible candidates in the Democratic Primary for Governor are Mike Hamra and Crystal Quade. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Hamra: 7%
Crystal Quade: 29%
Undecided: 64%
Q3: Possible candidates in the Democratic Primary for Attorney General are Elad Gross and Sarah Unsicker. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Elad Gross: 13%
Sarah Unsicker: 24%
Undecided: 63%
Q4: Possible candidates in the Democratic Primary for Secretary of State are Alan Gray and Peter Merideth. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Alan Gray: 21%
Peter Merideth: 13%
Undecided: 66%
Q5: When thinking about your elected officials, would you rather have someone whose first priority is working across the aisle to get things done, or whose first priority is fighting the Republican agenda?
Work across the aisle: 61%
Fight the Republican agenda: 24%
Not sure: 15%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: On AG Primary
I asked lobbyists, “Who will win the Republican primary for attorney general?” 24 replies…
RESULTS
1. Andrew Bailey… 70.8%
2. Will Scharf… 29.2%
3. Someone else… 0%
Sample of Comments
· [Scharf] So much money and has a better team.
· Zero confidence in my pick as this will be a tight race.
· I chose Bailey just because of incumbency. Will Scharf might win the 'nice guy' award though...
· Bailey and it won’t be close. They’ll start the attacks on Sharf/Greitens early and put him away.
· Scharf's ample money won't be able to overcome Bailey's earned media and charisma advantage. Bailey fits the state much better culturally and that will become more apparent over the next year.
· [Scharf] This race is not going to be close.
· [Bailey] Unseating an incumbent is tough so bet with the odds - but Bailey is half incumbent and Scharf will have resources like no other challenger, so my mind can be changed.
· Bailey will go down as the most talented candidate to ever lose a statewide campaign. It isn’t anything he can stop - Scharf just has the connections, background and recourses to win.
· Scharf has a chance if Trump endorses, otherwise Bailey wins, assuming he has close to even money. Irony is Bailey looks straight out of central casting for the job, perfect for TV, which is one of the most meaningful factors for Trump's support.
Who Won the Week?
Mike Kehoe – Took the lead the narrative against the Dem gov candidate, and filed another strong quarter.
Andrew Bailey – Hit the national media circuit again with wins against Biden on big tech censorship, and locks down another major superdonor (Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield).
Bill Eigel – Continues his small donor outreach. By Team Eigel’s estimate, “over 28,000 MO Rs have now signed up to be a part of our team. For you pollsters out there, that’s 8% of the total expected 2024 MO Republican electorate.”
The Missouri State Medical Association – MSMA adds a couple pros, Rachel Bauer and Jacob Scott, to their hallway platoon as they prep for next session.
Jason Rosenbaum – The Mighty One nabs Cody Smith’s kick-off announcement for state treasurer.
Find a downloadable version here.
$5K+ Contributions
Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $23,585 from Missouri Workers Power.
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $25,000 from Dirk Deaton for Missouri.
Clay Dems Political Action Committee - $25,000 from UAW Region 4 Midwest States CAP Council.
Missouri Agrees - $20,000 from John McDonnell.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Adriane Crouse, and Dionne Flowers.
Sunday: John Sondag, and Jeanette Mott Oxford.