MOScout Daily Update: 3Q Fundraising Numbers - MRL Picks Ashcroft - Pro-Choice IP at SCOMO and more...
MRL Endorses Ashcroft
Missouri Right to Life endorsed Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft in a surprise early endorsement. It’s a huge development for Team Ashcroft.
· Republican primary voters are overwhelmingly pro-life.
· MRL has the highest brand recognition of all the state pro-life organizations.
· Abortion may be front and center in 2024 – assuming there’s an initiative petition.
The endorsement left some scratching their heads over MRL’s thought process, wondering how Ashcroft got the nod. “Mike Kehoe, Bill Eigel and Jay Ashcroft all have bona fide pro-life records while in office, and I'm hard pressed to see why MRL would pick one over the other.”
· One theory circulating was that it was timed to distract from another lackluster fundraising quart from Ashcroft (see below).
From the endorsement: As Missouri Secretary of State, Jay Ashcroft has strongly defended the Right to Life when called to do so. His positions consistently align with Missouri's pro-life majority voters. Ashcroft has the executive skills as Missouri's top election officer, and most importantly, he has demonstrated his passion for saving the lives of innocent unborn children, vulnerable seniors and those with disabilities. Jay Ashcroft is the candidate that we need to combat the abortion culture, save unborn babies and protect women. He deserves our unwavering support and enthusiasm in his run to be Missouri's next Governor.
3Q: Governor’s Race
Jay Ashcroft raised $171,830; spent $99,451; and has $530,440 on-hand, with $4,409 in debt.
· Committee for Liberty PAC: $1,404,612 COH
Bill Eigel raised $141,893; spent $37,899; and has $245,668 on-hand.
· BILL PAC: $809,707 COH
Mike Kehoe raised $582,094; spent $213,517; and has $1,157,817 on-hand with $63,798 in debt.
· American Dream PAC: $2,947,640 COH.
Crystal Quade raised $11,133; spent $13,277; and has $56,031 on-hand.
· Crystal PAC: $43,197 COH.
What It Means: Kehoe leads in the money chase. But surprisingly Eigel raised almost as Ashcroft on the candidate side, and much more on the PAC side where Ashcroft only added about $100K. Team Eigel thinks that can even up total COH with Ashcroft next quarter.
Driving the Day
The Missouri Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today (3PM) in State of Missouri ex rel. Dr. Anna Fitz-James v. Andrew Bailey. This is the case of the pro-choice initiative petitions which got caught in a spat between Attorney General Andrew Bailey and Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick over the fiscal note.
3Q: Other Statewide Races
Lieutenant Governor
Dean Plocher raised $44,075; spent $22,229; and $497,697 on-hand.
· Missouri United PAC: $764,413 COH.
Holly Thompson Rehder raised $13,229; spent $10,657; and has $167,361 on-hand.
· Southern Drawl PAC: $71,204 COH.
What It Means: Not much news here. Thompson Rehder just announced and she starts with a big money deficit. Next quarter’s numbers will show if she’s able to close the gap.
Attorney General
Andrew Bailey raised $147,229; spent $28,297; and has $412,184 on-hand.
· Liberty and Justice PAC: $778,108 COH.
Will Scharf raised $65,113; spent $48,660; and has $891,312 on-hand.
· Defend Missouri PAC raised $6,600 and sent its money to MO Club for Growth PAC.
Elad Gross raised $20,120; spent $5,296; and has $36,949 on-hand, with $287 in debt.
Sarah Unsicker raised $2,365; spent $2,828; and has $12,787 on-hand. With $3,679 in debt.
What It Means: Fundraising in this race cooled a bit, but it appears that Scharf may be directing large donors to contribute to friendly third-parties as his PAC seems to have stopped fundraising.
Meanwhile it appears the eventual Dem nominee in this race, like others, is going to be monetarily outgunned come November 2024.
Secretary of State
Denny Hoskins raised $27,523; spent $15,369; and has $108,693 on-hand.
· Old Drum Conservative PAC: $109,662 COH.
Shane Schoeller raised $12,620; spent $6,550; and has $34,440 on-hand.
Caleb Rowden raised $29,965; spent $4,607; and has $106,841 on-hand.
· Missouri Forward PAC: $149,789 COH.
What It Means: Rowden hasn’t made an official announcement yet, but he’s still keeping up with his rivals in this race.
Treasurer
Vivek Malek raised $290,185; spent $54,169; and has $701,476 on-hand with $102,959 in debt.
· American Promise PAC: $1,336,558 COH
Cody Smith raised $35,100; spent $15,387; and has $228,896 on-hand.
· Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC: $81,189 COH.
Andrew Koenig raised $15,672; spent $6,267; and has $65,614 on-hand.
· Freedom’s Promise PAC: $15,252 COH.
What It Means: Malek has done an amazing job shoveling money into his committees while the others have been slow to the starting line. Malek has as much cash in the bank as Ashcroft. When’s the last time a treasurer candidate raised as much as a gubernatorial candidate in Missouri. Meanwhile, Smith just announced last week, and Koenig is still under the rumor category.
3Q: GOP Senate Races
Senate 3
Rumors have Sen. Elaine Gannon not running for re-election. She didn’t raise any money last and only has $5K on-hand, so I’m guessing the rumors are true. Hewkin is the only declared candidate, but I assume that changes soon.
John Hewkin raised $11,450; spent $178; and has $11,271 on-hand.
Senate 21
The Hallway seems to think that Gregory will outraise and outrun Richey, but this looks like dogfight to me.
Kurtis Gregory raised $21,028; spent $3,449; and has $133,304 on-hand.
· Wonderdog PAC: $42,700 COH.
Doug Richey raised $18,303; spent $11,291; and has $51,507 on-hand.
· Doug For Freedom PAC: $250 COH.
· Cultivating Freedom PAC: $2,467 COH.
Senate 23
Christofanelli has the clear lead in fundraising. Schnelting will try to run to his right in the race, and Chrismer’s strategy is unclear so far.
Rich Chrismer raised $100; spent $12; and has $88 on-hand.
Phil Christofanelli raised $30,459; spent $2,426; and has $189,456 on-hand, with $162 in debt.
· Gladius PAC: $54,958 COH.
Adam Schnelting raised $11,165; spent $93; and has $69,100 on-hand.
Senate 25
No race here – so far.
Jason Bean raised $5,300; spent $25,983; and has $100,843 on-hand with $27,000 in debt.
· Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri: July report not yet filed.
Senate 27
This race is VERY fluid. Thompson Rehder just officially announced that she’s not running for re-election. Dinkins is exploring the race; Burger might well stay in the House and run for leadership instead; and a half-dozen others might jump in. The coming months will be critical for this race.
Chris Dinkins raised $1,100; spent $2,029; and has $39,735 on-hand.
Jamie Burger raised $13,874; spent $7,794; and has $91,151 on-hand.
· Bootheel Values PAC: $20,198 COH.
Senate 29
No race here – so far.
Mike Moon raised $125; spent $889; and has $51,531 on-hand, with $56 in debt.
Senate 31
No race here – so far.
Rick Brattin raised $0; spent $3,633; and has $26,903 on-hand.
True Patriot PAC: $10,880 COH.
Senate 33
Eslinger isn’t sitting on her hands waiting or an opponent; she made good use of the quarter raising money for both her candidate committee and her PAC. A right-side challenge could emerge.
Karla Eslinger raised $83,825; spent $8,544; and has $138,604 on-hand.
· Conservative Leadership of Ozarks PAC: $74,587 COH.
3Q: Battleground Senate Races
Senate 1
Beck’s the only candidate announced so far, but this could a target for Republicans.
Doug Beck (D) raised $31,638; spent $5,566; and has $209,313 on-hand.
· Doug PAC: $79,244 COH.
Senate 11
Republicans have a primary. The establishment will rally behind Rep. Aaron McMullen. Redistricting has made this a tough seat for Dems to hold, but Sauls is the right candidate for Dems to make it happen.
Aaron McMullen (R) raised $11,500; spent $796; and has $13,800 on-hand, with $10,000 in debt.
· Independence PAC: $0 COH
Joe Nicola (R) raised $11,125; spent $3; and has $11,583 on-hand, with $5,218 in debt.
· Truth and Light PAC: $987 COH.
Robert Sauls (D) raised $19,280; spent $438; and has $52,810 on-hand.
· Independence Leadership PAC: Limited Activity.
Senate 15
The numbers show that the fundraising race hasn’t really started here yet. Gregory and Bowlin each seeded their campaigns with six-figure checks. Meanwhile Pereles is an intriguing entry from the Dems. I’ll be watching what his next quarter looks like.
Jim Bowlin (R) raised $6,290; spent $7,912; and has $118,139 on-hand, with $104,300 in debt.
David Gregory (R) raised $100,600; spent $11,256; and has $175,148 on-hand.
· Show Me Growth PAC: $27,798 COH.
Mark Harder (R) raised $14,652; spent $2,927; and has $33,776 on-hand.
· St. Louis Conservative Leadership PAC (formed after deadline).
Joe Pereles (D) raised $100; spent $0; and has $100 on-hand.
· Fearless PAC (formed after deadline).
Senate 17
This district leans Dem. Nurrenbern starts with a money lead, and the wind at her back. Unless there’s some fundamental shift, she’s the favorite here.
Maggie Nurrenbern (D) raised $38,343; spent $1,883; and has $123,056 on-hand.
· Northland Forward PAC: $2,001 COH.
Victor Hulbert (R) raised $17,470; spent $4,811; and has $13,086 on-hand.
Top 25 PACs, by COH
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $2,947,640
RightPath PAC (pro-Washington University) - $1,537,685
Committee for Liberty (pro-Ashcroft) - $1,404,612
Missouri and Kansas Laborers' PAC 1355304
American Promise PAC (pro-Malek) - $1,336,558
Citizens To Elect Mike Kehoe - $1,157,817
Enterprise Holdings, Inc. PAC - $1,100,074
Missouri REALTORS PAC - $1,036,580
Mid-America Carpenters Regional Council Missouri-Kansas Area PAC - $ 1,002,097
Luetkemeyer For Missouri- $961,448
Citizens for Scharf - $891,311
Lucas For KC - $822,948
Believe in Life and Liberty (pro-Eigel) - $809,707
Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $778,108
International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101 Political Action Committee 766314.39
Missouri United (pro-Plocher) - $764,413
Malek for Missouri - $701,476
MO National Education Assoc-PAC - $620,968
Truth in Campaigns (pro-Rizzo) - $551,669
Club for Growth Action - Missouri Federal Committee - $533,240
Ashcroft For Missouri - $530,439
Plocher For Missouri - $497,697
BUILD St. Louis PAC, Inc. - $486,629
Callahan For Missouri - $483,293
Mighty Missouri PAC (pro-Vescovo) - $461,475
$5K+ Contributions
House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $20,000 from Friends of Lane Roberts.
Electrical Workers Voluntary Political Education & Legislative Funds - Missouri - $23,173 from IBEW Local One.
Citizens For Frank White Jr - $10,000 from Heavy Constructors Association.
Lobbyists Registrations
Chris Liese, Jim Foley, Andy Foley, and Tony Dugger deleted Robertson Fire Protection District.
Shawn Rhoads added Verizon Communications And Affiliated Companies; and deleted Advantage Capital Partners.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Becky Cook, Jim Gwinner, Gary Otten, and Charlie Davis.