MOScout Daily Update: Herzog Web - Bailey Flumoxxed - MO Jobs Report - Updated IE List and more...

Updates

I’ve updated the 2024 Spreadsheet and the IE PACs (PACs allied with candidates) for the cash on-hand totals from the July reports.

A couple new IE PACs recently added to the list…

·       Americans First – Rep. Justin Hicks.

·       Safe Elections PAC – Shane Schoeller.

Strong Jobs Report

No sign of a recession here in Missouri as the latest state jobs report came in strong again.  See the report here.

Missouri non-farm payroll employment increased by 10,000 jobs in June 2023… Private industry employment increased by 9,200 jobs and government employment increased by 800 jobs… Over the year, total payroll employment increased by 59,800 jobs from June 2022 to June 2023.

What It Means

Employers still complain about labor shortages and the difficulty of finding workers. 

·       Public policy efforts should be more focused on incentives to attract workers rather than employers.

Watching GOP Senate Primaries

Folks contemplating the future landscape of the Senate in 2025 will find a lot of question marks ahead.

Three members of the former Conservative Caucus will be termed.  Each has a spirited primary brewing…

·       Senate 15 – Koenig termed. Three-way primary, no future Conservative Caucus candidate seemingly among them.

·       Senate 21 – Hoskins termed.  Rep. Doug Richey appears to be the candidate most likely to join the far-right wing of the Senate GOP Caucus.

·       Senate 23 – Eigel termed. Rep. Adam Schnelting would be the far-right’s pick in this race.

There’s likely to be “future Conservative Caucus” candidates for two of the regular Republican seats (if not more) though there’s no one right now stepping forward…

·       Senate 3 – Gannon perhaps retiring.

·       Senate 27 – Thompson Rehder running for LG.

Many in the hallway see the exit of Sen. Bill Eigel, especially after Bob Onder being termed, as depriving any future coalition of clear leadership.  But the Senate for the last twenty years has been a series of vexing characters with hardly a time of total Republican harmony (the line of succession running roughly Crowell to Schaaf to Conservative Caucus).

Bailey Waffles on Constitution

Strange days in the Republican Party… Being a constitutional conservative is now not conservative enough?  And being a law-and-order AG depends on the law?

Attorney General Andrew Bailey asked by a reporter: “Is it morally acceptable to disregard parts of the constitution or break the law in order to prevent an abortion from happening?”

His answer is that he’s not sure. “I’m going to need to spend a little more time thinking through that kind of the philosophical, moral question,” Bailey said.

·       One Republican growls… “Dude swore an oath to uphold the law and constitution but is saying if the law goes against beliefs then you can break it?”

Herzog’s Enduring Web of Influence

Catching up on last week’s story by the Missouri Independent about the Herzog Foundation’s involvement in the school choice movement in Missouri.  Read it here.

It contains this nifty graphic of the web of Herzog, though I think most capitol denizens would include Axiom Strategies and former Sen. Brad Lager in the visual as well.  One old-hand had instructed me years ago: Herzog/Graves/Roe, always together on everything, don’t forget it...

eMailbag

·       Making Sense of MRL’s Endorsement: I think folks are forgetting one of MRL's major issues was the Congressional Maps which Ashcroft led their rallies on.  That is one reason they would opt with him over Kehoe.

·       On Blue Missouri’s “bathtub” approach: If I read that correctly, they’re going to give money to candidates that have no money (can’t fundraise) without regard to whether that seat is a toss-up or not? So a lazy candidate with an 80% DPI will get more funding than a hard working candidate that has been raising money because they’re in a toss-up district.

Lobbyists Registrations

Casey Allen Wasser deleted The Swain Group, and Missouri Dairy.

$5K+ Contributions

American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $10,000 from Missouri Cable Telecommunications Association.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $15,000 from AGC of MO PAC.

IAFF FIREPAC VIC Missouri - $75,000 from International Association of Fire Fighters Interested in Registration and Education PAC (Washington DC).

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Brad Lager, and Dick Fleming.

MOScout Schedule

No weekend editions this weekend.