MOScout Daily Update: Rowden Passing on SOS? - Abortion Polling - Koenig Announces - Malek Ad and more...

Koenig Announces

Sen. Andrew Koenig officially announced that he’s running for treasurer over the weekend.

It wasn’t a highly coordinated roll-out:  his website hasn’t been freshened up since his last state senate run and doesn’t mention the state treasurer bid at all.

The same analysis I wrote at the start of July, when news of Koenig’s entry started to circulate, holds today…

The lay of the land…

•           Incumbents generally want crowded primaries because they have established name ID, and any opposition is splintered in a multi-candidate field.

•           Koenig brings two very big constituencies to the race. He’s been a pro-life champion his entire career, not just in rhetoric and voting, but in consistently moving significant pro-life legislation.  He’s been a pro-school choice advocate just as vehemently.  Both these groups are highly motivated voter blocs.

Polling from earlier this month (July 5-8, 706 likely GOP primary voters)…

Possible candidates in the Republican Primary for State Treasurer are Vivek Malek, Cody Smith and Andrew Koenig. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Vivek Malek: 6%

Cody Smith: 13%

Andrew Koenig: 13%

Undecided: 68%

Malek Hits Airwaves

Meanwhile, Malek released his first TV ad.  See it here.

Starting with just $300 dollars to his name, Vivek Malek has never stopped working and has risen to become Missouri’s State Treasurer.  Vivek Malek never forgets our duty to keep the American Dream alive.  “This is the greatest country in the world. There’s a lot that divides us, but the one thing that unites us all is our love for this great country.” Vivek Malek, treasuring what we hold dear.

Where’s Rowden?

Many potential 2024 candidates have announced, with one major exception — Caleb Rowden. Rowden has been a top name mentioned for statewide office, specifically Secretary of State. From someone close to Rowden’s camp…

“He is still mulling the decision, but it seems more and more likely he will opt out of running and pursue one of a number of opportunities that will be available to him. He will be an immediate past President Pro Tem with strong relationships, great political chops and a marketing and messaging background. If he wants, he should be able to take advantage of those three realities.”

What It Means

For now, we’re looking at a two-way race for the Republican primary for SOS. 

·       This development is very good news for both candidates, Sen. Denny Hoskins and Shane Schoeller, as Rowden would have likely been the top fundraiser in that race.

Abortion Polling

Bellwether Research released polling data from several states with the most stringent abortion laws.  Missouri is among them.  See the findings here. 

There’s no clear majority for or against legalizing abortion in the first trimester. Only 41% said they would vote in favor of an IP that legalized abortion in the first trimester (12 weeks).

But there are some areas where voters agree…

·       They favor legalizing abortion in cases like rape and incest.

·       They oppose prosecuting doctors.

·       And they’re somewhat or very concerned that the abortion ban will cause doctors to leave or not practice in Missouri.

What It Means

There’s a catch-22 here for pro-choice advocates as they work toward a 2024 initiative petition.  While there are changes that could be made to ease the state’s abortion laws which would find bipartisan support, those measures are too small and incremental to excite the pro-choice activists who would ultimately gather signatures and fund the effort.

However, the more substantial proposals that activists want will find significant resistance with Missouri voters, imperiling their chances to win passage.

Healing Prayers for Hubbard Child

$5K+ Contributions

HNTB Missouri PAC - Federal Committee - $12,500 from HNTB Holdings (Sausalito, CA).

Liberty and Justice PAC (pro-Bailey) - $9,216 from Ketchmark & McCreight, P.C.

Missourians for Healthy Families & Fair Wages - $17,665 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.

Lobbyists Registrations

Richard McIntosh added True North Companies.    

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Claire McCaskill (the big 7-0), Besty AuBuchon, Jean Evans, Jim Lembke, Wes Rogers, Kim Tuttle, and Kevin Threlkeld.