MOScout Daily Update: One Year From the Primary - Watching Revenue Numbers - Pro-Schnelting PAC - Justice T-Boned and more...
August First Part I…
Today is the first Tuesday in August. That puts us about one year from the 2024 primary election day…
With the spat of announcements last month, we seem pretty well set on our statewide races. However, one Republican consultant told me yesterday to expect a surprise or two still ahead.
There’s plenty of space in a couple of the races. The governor’s race and the attorney general’s race have strong candidates raising money. Similarly, the treasurer’s race has an incumbent who’s put seven figures into his war-chest. But the LG’s race and SOS race could still be attractive to an opportunistic outsider for two reasons…
· Money: We didn’t see big numbers put up last quarter by any of the Republican candidates in those races. A successful businessman or woman, for example, could open their checkbook and immediately become the cash on-hand leader.
· Name ID: MOScout polling showed huge undecideds in those races; 68% in the LG’s race, and 66% in the SOS race.
Meanwhile…
Speaker Dean Plocher who was expected to have a formal announcement after session still hasn’t made an official kick-off to his lieutenant governor campaign.
August First Part II…
Today is August 1. That means yesterday at 5PM we closed business on the first month of the fiscal year. Today or tomorrow, we should have numbers to size up state tax receipts.
As of close of business Friday, they were slightly behind last year’s numbers, down -1.6%. But there can be volatile day-to-day swings.
The consensus revenue forecast for the fiscal year is flat revenue growth. That’s reasonable assuming the macroeconomic environment holds (1-2% growth on top of 3ish% inflation).
But… if numbers deteriorate, it will cast a pall over the next legislative session.
· You won’t see a Senate Appropriations Chair green-lighting individual earmarks.
· You won’t see the governor vowing large-scale investments in his state of the state speech.
Pro-Schnelting PAC
Protect our Kids PAC was formed. It’s an independent expenditure PAC to support Rep. Adam Schnelting. He’s running in the Republican Senate 23 primary (Eigel termed) against Rep. Phil Christofanelli. See the paperwork here.
· The name of the PAC hints that gender transition therapy may be a major issue for Schnelting…
More on Energy
The energy discussion continues among readers: I know you don’t want a back and forth but… time of use actually encourages baseload use like nuclear and coal in Missouri because you don’t use energy at peak times…allowing other generation to be exported. And if you want to attract manufacturing/advanced manufacturing to the state, almost all new RFPs require access to renewable energy…
Rural Hospitals’ Financial Vulnerability
Missouri Independent reports on the fragile state of Missouri’s rural hospitals. Read it here.
· A July report from the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform, a national policy group, found that 19 of Missouri’s 57 rural hospitals are at risk of shuttering because of “serious financial problems.” Many of those hospitals at risk of closure could sustain themselves financially for six to seven years, according to the report. Eight rural hospitals, however, are in particularly dire straits, according to the report, and are at risk of “immediate closure” — meaning they are at risk of closing in the next two to three years.
· Rural hospitals serve smaller populations than their urban counterparts, but have many of the same fixed costs, such as staffing emergency rooms. They generally have limited power to negotiate reimbursement rates from insurers.
Roe Losing Money on DeSantis?
Politico Influence reports on the pro-Ron DeSantis Never Back Down PAC. Read it here.
Officials for the super PAC are seeking to limit its vendors’ profit margins, and DeSantis adviser Jeff Roe’s Axiom Strategies was paid $16.4 million, which CEO Chris Jankowski said “included $14.8 million worth of media buys” with a 1.75 percent commission for media placement. The firm “had a net loss for its work with the group in the current reporting period,” though, as a result of a $409,000 in-kind donation the super PAC will report from Axiom due to Roe’s initial contract with the super PAC.
Kimble Runs to Replace Baringer in House 82
Press release: Nick Kimble launches campaign to run for State Representative. Kimble is a native St. Louisan, raised in South City by his mother, a SLMPD police officer and
his father, a Union Sheetmetal Worker… The current incumbent, Rep. Donna Baringer, a friend and mentor to Nick, will be supporting his campaign to replace her in the State House.
Kimble is currently a project manager at Huron Consulting Group, working with the Veterans
Affairs online health care implementation project. He has been active in politics since he was in
high school, volunteering with candidates and their campaigns around the City of St. Louis.
Kimble’s roots run deep in Southwest St. Louis. He was raised in South Hampton and attended
St. Gabriel the Archangel and St. Louis University High School. He then attended Loyola
University in Chicago for college before moving back to the city…
· See his campaign committee filing here.
Justice T-Boned
Yikers… Southeast powerbroker Eddy Justice write on Facebook… Friday I got T-boned at the intersection of Shelby and Kanell BLVD in Poplar Bluff. Although I suffered soft tissue damage, Transient Global Amnesia, etc, I am on the mend. The car obviously faired much worse. I thank my Lord and Savior Jesus Christ for having His protecting arms around me! It could have turned out much differently! Also big thanks go to my bride (who was following in another vehicle and saw the whole thing) for making sure I was taken care of, to the stranger that held my neck still till EMS arrived, to the EMS workers, firefighters and police officers. You are all true heroes in my book. God isn’t finished with me yet!
Lobbyist Registrations
Richard McIntosh added Lightspeed Systems.
$5K+ Contributions
American Dream PAC (pro-Kehoe) - $20,000 from Scott Engelcrecht.
Missouri AG PAC - $25,000 from Protection Plus LLC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Bill Reiboldt, and Shannon Weber.