MOScout Daily Update: Bean Watch - Possible Senate 25 Candidates - Latest Trump Indictment - Mosley Next Gen and more...

Bean Watch

I wrote last week about the rumors that Sen. Jason Bean might forgo a re-election bid and instead jump into a statewide race. 

The folks I spoke to about Bean’s future were split on whether they think he’ll run, but one operative made the case that Bean has an easier race in a crowded SOS race than he would with a one-on-one against a conservative insurgent challenger in the senate district. 

“It’s easier and cheaper to drive a wedge on the state senate level as Bill White found out… The Jill Carter model would be one way to look at the potential matchup...  Head-to-head with an incumbent Senator with poor conservative ratings.

Carter spent just $107,000 in her race to beat incumbent White. White dwarfed her in spending with about $308,000. Her strategy was to make his voting record the race, not her personal positions. She frequently posted and texted out the ‘Lembke/Eigel Scorecard’ and had it with her at every event for voters to take with them.  It earned her a solid 52% of the vote against someone who had represented the region for 12 years.  Bill White's ACU Rating for 2022 was 56%, exactly the same as Jason Bean…”

There are a whole lot of names that could emerge as potential candidates if Bean opts for a statewide race…

·       David Haggard (or his son Trent) – former University of Missouri curator.

·       Eddy Justice – he ran four years ago, you assume he’d look at it.

·       Dustin Mayer – son of former senate pro tem Rob Mayer.

·       Rep. Cameron Parker – the freshmen state rep is well-liked in the capitol. She’d have to look at it, though weighed against the risk of giving up another 6 years in the House makes her more of a long-shot. “That could change if a bunch of guys from Butler/Stoddard get in the race.”

·       Don Rone – former state representative, not too far removed from the political arena.

·       Jeff Shawan – one observer says “I expect there’s a decent chance you see a Shawan for Senate campaign regardless of whether Bean takes the jump.  The Senate primary, unlike an electric co-op race, is incredibly partisan and if Shawan is able to keep Butler/Stoddard clear from other candidates it would greatly change the makeup of the previous race.”

·       Sawyer Smith – “a young gun lawyer that took out Russ Oliver to become the Stoddard County prosecutor.”

Trump’s Latest Indictment

The State of Georgia issued an indictment last night of Donald Trump and many of his inner circle for their efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.  Read the indictment here.

Does it matter?  When Trump has been caught in lies in the past it hasn’t, so I suppose the conventional wisdom would be that nothing’s changed here.

The June MOScout/Remington poll in the wake of the classified documents indictment…

·       77% of Missouri Republican voters interpreted that as “Donald Trump was the target of a political attack.”

·       43% of Republican said that if Trump was found guilty it would make them more likely to vote for him versus on 15% who said they’d be less likely to vote for him if he was guilty.

It was clear that Georgia was prepping this indictment, but that didn’t stop Missouri’s attorney general from using his support for Trump in a fundraising appeal just days ago... 

All in the Family: Mosleys Form Committees

The Mosley / Walton family is preparing to extend their political dynasty in North St. Louis County.  Citizens to Elect Janay Mosley, and Citizens to Elect Chanel Mosley were recently filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission.

Janay and Chanel are children of Sen. Angela Mosley.  Mosely is the daughter of St. Louis County powerbroker Elbert Walton Jr.

Janay is running for House 68.  That’s where Angela’s husband Jay Mosley is currently the state representative.

Chanel is running for House 75.  That’s where Angela’s brother-in-law, Alan Gray is state representative.

Both Jay Mosley and Alan Gray are set to be termed out.

Phifer to Retire

Rep. Barbara Phifer is not running for re-election.  I’d written yesterday that Mark Boyko’s forming a campaign committee presaged a Democratic primary with her in House 90.  While there will still likely be a primary, it won’t involve Phifer. 

Webster-Kirkwood Times quotes Phifer on her decision (read it here): “We need to be encouraging younger people to get involved in government. Four years is a long time. In this job, you’re gone five to six months out of the year. It’s all or nothing, and the ‘all’ is all consuming. It’s just time.”

eMailbag on ESG

Being against the use of ESG principles when investing other people’s money does not mean being against the development of renewable energy sources.

$5K+ Contributions

Lincoln PAC (pro-Hough) - $10,000 from Hunt Midwest Enterprises Inc.

Union Pacific Corp FFEG MO Federal Committee - $14,000 from Union Pacific Corp. Fund for Effective Government (Omaha, NE).

Sharpe For Rep - $20,000 from Greg Sharpe.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Rodger Reedy, and Jason Norton.